NHL Hockey Betting: Stanley Cup Playoffs for May 13, 2016
Friday the 13th is supposed to be unlucky–especially for teenagers at sleepaway camps–but not for hockey fans. The Eastern Conference Finals start tonight as the Tampa Bay Lightning head to the ‘Steel City’ to take on the Pittsburgh Penguins:
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING AT PITTSBURGH PENGUINS:
So riddle me this…why are the Pittsburgh Penguins -200 favorites to win this series over the Tampa Bay Lightning? Last time I checked, the Lightning were trying to go back to the Stanley Cup Finals for the second straight year. Are we to believe that the Penguins are so red hot that they’re a 2-1 favorite over the defending Eastern Conference Champions? While we’re at it, why are they a -170 favorite in Game One? Against a rested and reasonably healthy Tampa Bay team?
–THE MATT MURRAY HYPE FACTOR: Don’t get me wrong–I’m a HUGE Matt Murray fan. The guy is a freak. A 21 year old rookie in his first ever NHL playoffs should not be channeling the cool of Ken Dryden and the competitive fire of Patrick Roy. This will be Murray’s twentieth career start. Not playoff start #20–this will be his twentieth start in the National Hockey League. Murray was 9-2-1 in the regular season with a 2.00 goals against average and a .930 save percentage. He’s 7-2-0 in the playoffs with a 2.05 goals against average and a .935 save percentage. Marc-Andre Fleury is reportedly ready to return from his post concussion rehab but guess what? He’s riding the pine behind Murray for now.
There aren’t many goalies that have played better in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Were the playoffs to end right now I’d probably vote for Murray to win the Conn Smythe Trophy. Not just because of how well he played but how well he played as a rookie in a brutally tough situation. But you know one guy who *does* have better numbers than Murray? He’s easy to find–he’ll be in the goal crease at the other end of the ice. Ben Bishop is 8-2-0 with a 1.89 goals against average and a .937 save percentage. He’s a Vezina Trophy finalist and has the postseason experience that Murray lacks. Murray is a beast but in this series he’s only the second best goalie.
–THE STAR FACTOR: Sidney Crosby is arguably the face of the league–at least until Connor McJesus..er…Connor McDavid assumes that role. Evgeni Malkin is also a big star, Phil Kessell is well known, Kris Letang too. The aforementioned Matt Murray is getting a lot of ink. The problem is that neither Sid or Malkin are exactly setting the league on fire offensively. Crosby has been solid in other areas and has 3 goals and 7 assists. Malkin has 3 goals and 6 assists but it’s the most reviled man in Toronto–one Phil Kessell–that’s leading this team in scoring.
The leading goal scorer in the playoffs is here but he’s wearing the opposing team’s sweater. That would be Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov who has nine goals for the postseason. Tyler Johnson has also been lighting it up. And with all due respect to Letang the best two way defenseman on the ice will be wearing a Bolts sweater as well. Victor Hedman was a beast in the series against the Islanders.
–THE COACHING FACTOR: Mike Sullivan deserves all of the praise he gets for turning this Penguins’ team around. He should have been one of the Jack Adams Trophy finalists and not Lindy Ruff. But it’s easy to forget about Tampa Bay head coach John Cooper. He’s not a flashy guy like John Tortorella. He just wins all the time.
The point of all this–this is a very evenly matched series. Tampa Bay is very capable of winning not only Game One but the entire series. At the very least, Pittsburgh shouldn’t be a -200 favorite in this series. At -200, the implied probability is 66.67%. In no way, shape or form is Pittsburgh nearly 70% likely to win this series. It’s a coin flip at best and you can make a compelling case that the Lightning have some very significant edges–particularly in terms of recent playoff experience. This is especially true for the team’s respective goaltenders.
The teams are separated by one tenth of a goal in their goals for/goals against differential. They have an almost identical postseason record–though in actuality the Lightning’s record is better. Tampa Bay is 8-2-0 in the postseason to the Penguins’ 8-3-0. Pittsburgh has won 5 of the last 9 head to head including 2 of 3 at home. This season, however, the Lightning won all three head to head matchups with two victories at home and one on the road. Tampa Bay has had more rest than Pittsburgh and with 3 or more days of rest this year the Bolts’ are 7-1.
Sports betting is not about ‘picking winners’. It’s about finding value–find the value and the rest takes care of itself. There’s just no way to justify Pittsburgh being such a big favorite for this game or this series.
BET TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING +150 OVER PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (GAME ONE)
BET TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING +170 OVER PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (SERIES)