NHL Hockey Betting: Stanley Cup Playoffs for May 17, 2016
Game Two of the Western Conference Finals between the St. Louis Blues and San Jose Sharks:
SAN JOSE SHARKS AT ST. LOUIS BLUES:
The two conference finals series are contrasts in accurate pricing. That’s not exactly fair–bookmakers simply try to set a price that will divide action so if there’s any fault it’s in the public perception of these two series. The Eastern Conference Finals is supposed to be a mismatch. At least that’s what the series betting line prior to Game One suggested with the Pittsburgh Penguins a -200 favorite to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals over the team that was there last year. That’s what the Game One betting line suggested (Pittsburgh -175). That’s what the Game Two betting line suggests (Pittsburgh -200, though that factors in the urgency of the game to the Penguins after losing the opener). The Penguins were still favored to win the series before Game Two despite being in a 1-0 hole.
The reality of that series is that it’s always been a ‘coin flip’. For that reason, just taking the price is free value. This is one of the easiest concepts in handicapping but one that bedevils unsophisticated bettors because they are too easily hoodwinked by the sports media. They also have a hard time disabusing themselves of the notion that the linesmaker can be ‘wrong’ about a matchup. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy for ‘squares’–they just can’t find value despite themselves. They convince themselves that the favorite “has” to be the better team and the media helps validate that erroneous concept in their minds.
The flip side is also true and that could be on display in the Western Conference Finals. The pricing on this series suggests that this is the closer of the two series by a wide margin. The St. Louis Blues were a -145 to -135 choice to win the series and Game One. They’re now a -220 favorite to win this series which is at least the right idea. Yet they’re still a -135 favorite in Game Two. Again, that line hasn’t changed for a couple of reasons–the first is that one game is typically insufficient to change ‘public perception’. If the public thought this was a dead even series before it began the 2-1 Blues’ win won’t change that. The second is that the public assumes that the ‘urgency’ for the team that lost the previous game is sufficient to counteract any type of tactical superiority of their opponent. Sometimes that may be true, but many times it isn’t.
That results in something of a ‘Bizarro World‘ of pricing. In my view, St. Louis is substantially better than San Jose making the pricing on this matchup a good value on the favorite as the linesmaker seems to be underrated the Blues. In the other series, we’ve got two very evenly matched teams at worst–and you can make a cogent case that Tampa Bay is the better of the two teams for a number of reasons (not the least of which is their 3-0 record against Pittsburgh in the regular season and Game One win). And that series offers huge value on the dog.
That analysis likely ‘tips our hand’ on our position for this game. San Jose had a much easier path to the Conference Finals than did the Blues but they made it more difficult than it had to be. There was no reason they needed seven games to beat an erratic Nashville team. It’s especially damning that they lost all three games to Nashville at Bridgestone Arena after having the best road record in the NHL during the regular season. We’ve talked at great length about the flipside to that equation–the Sharks also had a horrible home record. When the last place team in the Central Division (Winnipeg) and the last place team in the Pacific Division (also the last place team in the Western Conference) have a better home record than the Sharks that’s a problem. They did win all four games at home during the Nashville series but that had more to do with the erratic nature of the Predators. They won’t get the same type of erratic play from the St. Louis Blues. St. Louis was very consistent during the regular season and very balanced in their home/away play. In fact, they had an almost identical record on the road (25-11-5) as they do at home (24-13-4).
Even though the Sharks outlasted the Predators there were entire stretches where they were simply manhandled by Nashville. That bodes very poorly for them here. St. Louis plays a very similar style to Nashville, blending physicality with skill and tenacious defense. The problem for San Jose–the Blues do it better than Nashville does. David Backes has been playing much more physically than in playoffs past and his willingness to take punishment has inspired his teammates. St. Louis has been better on special teams as well. The Sharks had the #3 power play in the NHL during the regular season but were just #21 on the kill. Experienced coach Ken Hitchcock has even started to get feisty, suggesting that San Jose’s coach Peter DeBoer is ‘whining for calls’. Both goaltenders have played well throughout the playoffs but Elliott has been marginally better.
Heading into series, one discernable edge for the Sharks–on paper at least–was their superior up front scoring. They have a lot more ‘snipers’ than do the Blues. In Game One at least that wasn’t the advantage it was expected to be. Instead, the Blues’ deeper, more versatile team had the advantage. This won’t change throughout the rest of the series. Finally, there is the ‘eye test’. The Blues have had their issues throughout the playoffs and their 1-5 record when leading a series is a concern. But they just have more of the ‘look’ of a Stanley Cup champion. They needed seven games to win both of their previous series but they were facing the defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks and the Western Conference regular season champion Dallas Stars. If they can grind out wins over these teams, they can do it against San Jose.
BET ST. LOUIS BLUES -135 OVER SAN JOSE SHARKS