NHL Hockey Betting: Stanley Cup Playoffs for May 4, 2016
Only one game on Wednesday’s card but we’ll have three games on Thursday. Tonight we’ve got Game Four of the Pittsburgh Penguins/Washington Capitals Eastern Conference Semifinal series:
WASHINGTON CAPITALS AT PITTSBURGH PENGUINS:
Before we get into the handicap of this game there are a few news items relevant to it:
–KRIS LETANG SUSPENDED: This is a big deal for Pittsburgh in Game Four. Kris Letang has been suspended for one game in response to his illegal hit on Washington’s Marcus Johannsen. This is huge. Letang–even more so than Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin–is downright irreplaceable in the Penguins’ lineup. He’s not only their best defenseman but he’s been pulling the most ice time of any member of the team during the playoffs–usually in excess of 30 minutes per game. He’s also a very important part of the Pittsburgh offense and one of the best in the NHL at clearing the puck out of the defensive end to start a rush in the other direction. Should Washington win Game Four and tie the series at 2-2 heading back to Pittsburgh this could be the most salient reason why.
–MARC-ANDRE FLEURY NEARING A RETURN?: Marc-Andre Fleury has been practicing with the team since the start of the playoffs but has been listed as ‘questionable’ on the NHL injury reports up until now. He’s now listed as ‘expected to be available’ which suggests that his recovery from his second concussion of the season is going well. It’s going so well that he’ll be on the bench to back up rookie phenom Matt Murray in Game Four. He’s in a strange position now–he’ll be relegated to the backup role for the time being partially for precautionary reasons (the more time to recover from the concussion the better) but partially because his ‘understudy’ Matt Murray is tearing it up (more about that in a moment). If the idea is to wait for Murray to falter before he gets some game action it could be awhile. The Pittsburgh media is of the opinion that Fleury needs to stay on the bench for as long as possible and that’s a hard position to argue with.
–MATT MURRAY TEARING IT UP: The Pittsburgh Penguins may have unwittingly found themselves in a ‘goalie controversy’ that might need to be dealt with over the Summer. The Pens’ situation looked bleak when starting goalie Marc-Andre Fleury went down with his second concussion of the year late in the regular season. The team was left with backup Jeff Zatkoff and an untested 21 year old rookie, Matt Murray. Spoiler alert–things have worked out pretty well for Murray and the Penguins. He got the attention of the hockey world during the regular season as he posted a 9-2-1 record, a 2.00 goals against average and a 0.930 save percentage.
Murray was injured in the final game of the regular season leaving Pittsburgh to start Zatkoff for the first two games of their opening round series against the New York Rangers. They split those two games but were happy to get Murray back between the pipes for Game Three. Many in the hockey media suggested that their enthusiasm should be tempered with caution–Murray was a stud during the regular season but he had zero playoff experience. The Stanley Cup playoffs are definitely a tough role for a 21 year old goaltender expected to backstop a team with expectations of a deep run. Spoiler alert #2–Murray has not only ‘dealt with the pressure’ he’s been a monster. His playoff record is 5-1 with a 1.79 goals against average, a 9.44 save percentage and a shutout.
Murray even answers media questions like a veteran–asked about his future with the team and/or the future of Marc-Andre Fleury he responded: “I want to win. On a personal level, I think it really doesn’t matter. Everything else is noise to me.” The Washington Capitals had every reason to win Game Three. They held the Penguins to 24 shots on goal and bombarded Murray with 45 shots of their own. What *wasn’t* supposed to happen was for the 21 year old to stop 43 of the shots en route to a 3-2 Penguins’ victory.
They may be noise to Murray but they’re very relevant questions–so if you’re the Pittsburgh Penguins what do you do this summer about your goaltending? Fleury has become a very competent goaltender over the past few seasons and he’s signed through 2018 at $5.75 million per. That’s not an unreasonable salary for a goalie of his skill. He was considered streaky and somewhat petulant in his first year or two in the league but he’s become a great teammate and exceedingly consistent. Murray gives him a lot of the credit for how he got so good so fast. Murray is in the process of making a very compelling case that he’s ready to be a NHL starter and he’s ridiculously poised for a 21 year old rookie. It’ll be hard for Pittsburgh to give him a handshake and a train ticket down to Wilkes-Barre to start for the Penguins’ AHL affiliate at this point. Still, that would likely be a better scenario than sending backoff Zatkoff packing and keeping Murray as a backup. He needs to play and play a lot somewhere. Murray is also ten years younger than Fleury and that has to be a consideration as well. Another consideration–Fleury’s marketability isn’t what it once was after multiple concussions.
GAME FOUR:
The only reason that the Washington Capitals didn’t win Game Three was a combination of insane goaltending by Matt Murray and a rare mediocre performance by Braden Holtby. If Washington does the same thing in this game that they did in Game Three they win. The absence of Kris Letang should make it easier to keep the offensive pressure on the Penguins while making it more difficult for Pittsburgh to break out of the Capitals’ zone. Everything about this game sets up for Washington to win and head back to DC tied at one game apiece. If The Caps can’t win with no Letang and head back to DC down 3-1 it’ll be tough for them to come back.
BET WASHINGTON CAPITALS -110 OVER PITTSBURGH PENGUINS