Pirates Favored In Series Opener At Cincinnati
Who: Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cincinnati Reds
When: Friday August 25th, 2017 7:10PM EST
Where: Great American Ballpark—Cincinnati, Ohio
The story surrounding the Pirates has been the same one throughout a large majority of the 2nd half of this MLB season. The team from Pittsburgh has constantly struggled to beat the teams they need to beat in the games they need to win. Now 8.5 games out of the NL Wild Card and 8 games off the pace in the NL Central, the Pirates are slowly but surely drifting further and further away from a post-season berth. To put into perspective just how bad the last few weeks have been for the Pirates, in their last 12 games they have won just 3 games. When you consider that 2 of the 3 series that occurred during that 12-game span were against divisional opponents, they are in very poor form.
Fortunately for the Buccos, their Cincinnati opponents are a pretty woeful team themselves. If they can get the bats going to any degree I do not think that the Pirates will have much of any issue winning this opening game.
The Reds, as was briefly mentioned above, are the only NL Central team that is undoubtedly worse than the Pirates. Now 15 games back of the division leaders, Chicago, the Reds have just about no chance at a post-season berth. Of course, this should not come as a surprise seeing as the Reds have been populating the bottom spot in the NL Central for an overwhelming majority of the year. Having lost 3 of their last 4 games, the Reds are not in much better form than the Pirates, so this series very well might be a good one.
Being that this is the first of three games in this series, Bovada is currently offering odds on which team will win at least 2 of 3. As it stands, the Pirates (-105) are favored to win, while the Reds (-125) are slight underdogs. I think you have to go with the Pirates in this one simply because I firmly believe that they are a better team. It is far from a sure-thing, but I think they will win at least 2 of 3.
Game Overview and Analysis
Starting on the mound for the visiting Pirates (-128) will be Ivan Nova (11-10 3.81 ERA). Nova has had a solid 2017 campaign thus far and will be looking to add to his wins on Friday night. Coming off a win vs. St. Louis, Nova will have all the confidence in the world. The thing about his performances, and thus his record, is that he sometimes suffers from a lack of run production from his offense. If you ask any pitcher, it does not matter how solid you pitch if your offense cannot score runs. Pittsburgh actually lived through this earlier this week, when their lone hit of the game—a walk-off homerun in the 10th—destroyed a no-hitter. The Pirates may be 2-8 against the Reds this season, but I think this series will change that in the Pirates’ favor.
To make a long story short, if the Pirates can get runs across the plate, they should have no issues winning this opener. I expect Nova to perform well, and I fully expect him to keep the Cincinnati bats quiet.
Speaking to that last point, the Reds’ (+108) managed to put up nearly 15 runs on Thursday night against the Cubs. While this is definitely an outlier performance, the fact of the matter is that anytime you can put up 13 runs, opposing teams should pay attention. Starting on the mound for the Reds will be Robert Stephenson (1-4 6.13 ERA). Stephenson began the year in a reliever role, and I think his record does a good job of explaining that. His most recent outing was his lone victory, and I think that he will ride that confidence as much as he is able to. To be fair, however, I think the Pirates are going to have a field day against Stephenson.
Betting Prediction
I think that, if you are attempting to place a moneyline wager, that you absolutely have to go with the Pirates (-128). Ivan Nova is definitely the better of the two pitchers, and I think that will show through at least the first 5 innings. Though the Reds did score plenty of runs on Thursday, the likelihood of them repeating that performance is not very high.
The over/under listed for this game is 9.5 runs (-115/-105) and I think you need to take the under (-105) in this game. The Reds are, by no means, a proficient offensive outfit, and the Pirates can greatly struggle on any given night, so I think there is a strong chance this will stay under.
If you are feeling like not taking much of any risk, you can look at the alternate point spread on Bovada that lists the Pirates as +1.5 underdogs (-265). Naturally, the -265 odds are not the greatest, but I feel as though this is the safest wager you can make.