Pittsburgh Surprise Favorites in Series Opener in Milwaukee
As far as MLB divisions are concerned, the AL Central is perhaps the weakest of them all. Despite this, the Brewers are in first and have been slowly but surely building their lead. When they welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (-122) into town on Monday night, they will look to extend their lead atop the division against an opponent that has been less than consistent of late.
The Brewers are entering this divisional series coming off of a series with the Padres that saw them win 2 of 3. In all, the Brewers (+102) have won 5 of their last 6, with most of those games being decided by 3 runs or fewer. At home, and 2.5 games ahead of the defending World Series Champion Cubs, the Brewers should be looking to capitalize during this series. Monday will be a tough test, however, as Pirates’ Ace Gerrit Cole will be taking the mound to start the series. On paper, these two teams are evenly matched, so I think we are in for quite the game, and quite the series overall.
Pitching Matchup—Cole vs. Garza
When you look at Gerrit Cole (4-6 4.54 ERA) in 2017 compared to him in just about any season prior, it is like you are looking at two different players altogether. To say that Cole has struggled so far this year would be an understatement, but in the same breath, it must be mentioned that Cole’s struggles might not have much to do with Cole at all. In the 4 losses assigned to him, the Pirates offense has combined to score a total of 6 runs across those games. Without support on the offensive side of the ball, it is always going to be difficult to earn a win.
Matt Garza is like Gerrit Cole in that this season has not really lived up to expectations. Though he has a 3-2 record and a 4.17 ERA, the right-hander has only managed to pitch more than 6 innings on 2 occasions in 9 games started. Making matters even more interesting is the fact that he has been on the disabled list for part of the season. His last start came on June 14th against the Cardinals, and that resulted in a 7-6 win for the team, and a win for Garza himself. While he only lasted about 5 innings, this probably has more to do with the Brewers staff easing him back into pitching in order to avoid further injury problems.
Betting Prediction and Analysis
The Pirates (-122) are favored for no other reason than the fact that Gerrit Cole is making a start. Even with a record as poor as Cole’s has been, he is still capable of a lights-out performance at any given point in time. With that being said, Cole has allowed 15 runs in his last 3 starts and does not look anything like the pitcher we have come to know. As such, I think the smart bet, and the value bet will be on the Brewers moneyline, which currently sits at +102 on Bovada. Matt Garza is no scrub, and the Pirates offense seems to spin its wheels more frequently than they should. When it comes down to it, the Pirates need their starts to begin performing if they want a shot at winning this series and/or the division.
Playing off this last point, Bovada’s team total for the Pirates is currently listed at 4.5 runs. The under on this wager is currently paying at even money, and I think this is, yet again, the smart bet as well as a great value wager. As a team, the Pirates have only exceeded the 4.5 run tally on one occasion in their last 4 matches. Garza’s strength combined with the Pirates’ inability to get runs across the plate means that this is likely to be a low-scoring game, at least from the Pittsburgh side of things.
As for the game’s overall total, it is currently listed at 9.5 runs. Despite having picked the Pirates’ team under, I think it is a good choice to take the total over (-105). Apart from their most recent game—a 2-1 victory against the Padres—the Brewers have scored 6 or more runs in each of their last 6 outings. Though it is by no means a guarantee, if the Brewers do what we think they can do and beat the Pirates, they will likely score a few runs in the process. This is something that will grow even truer if Cole cannot last much beyond 5 innings as the Pirates’ bullpen is absolutely horrible.
An interesting player proposition being offered by Bovada is with regard to the total number of strikeouts recorded by the Brewers’ Mat Garza. The line is listed at 4, the over pays at -140 and the under at +110. Though Garza has only exceeded 4 strikeouts in 2 of his outings this season, I think tonight will see him fan a lot of the Pirates’ players. It is a bold bet to make, but also one that I think will pay off by the time the game has come to a conclusion.