Political Betting–2016 Presidential Election Odds Early Week Update
With precisely two weeks to go until the election there’s honestly not much happening in terms of candidate activity, polling data or odds movement. In our last update we took a look at the RealClearPolitics.com polling average and found that in a two candidate race between Trump and Clinton that Hillary had a +6.1% lead. In a four way race including Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein the Clinton lead was +5.3%.
In the latest RealClearPolitics polling average report Clinton’s lead is down to +5.1% in the ‘two candidate’ survey but has increased slightly to 5.4% in the four candidate race. Interestingly, both Clinton and Trump’s percentages have increased while Johnson and Stein’s have dropped. Clinton is now at 45.3%, up from 44.7% in our last report representing a 0.6% uptick. Trump is at 39.9% up from 39.4% in our last update–an increase of 0.5%. Gary Johnson has gone from 6.5% to 6% and Jill Stein has gone from 2.6% to 2.2%. One obvious explanation is that some of the supporters for the third party candidates are jumping ship realizing that their candidates aren’t going to win. The kneejerk reaction would be to suggest that the Libertarian candidate’s supporters are going to Trump while the Green Party candidate’s backers are moving to Clinton. In reality, it’s not so cut and dried. There’s little common ground between Libertarians and Trump and many Green Party supporters are leery of Clinton. One scenario is that they’re taking positions *against* the candidate they like least–the old ‘lesser of two evils’ rationalization. It’s more likely that Johnson and Stein’s supporters are dropping out of the likely voter pool realizing that neither major party candidate is drastically different from the other. At the same time, ‘undecideds’ are choosing one of the two major party candidates. Disenchantment with the status quo is what prompted Johnson and Stein’s supporters to look beyond the Democrat/Republican duopoly in the first place. It’s highly doubtful that they would all of a sudden choose to back one of the ‘status quo’ candidates and are more likely to sit this one out.
As far as the betting odds there’s been little or no change. Most European sportsbooks have Clinton at either -550 or -600 with takeback on Trump at +400, +450 or +500. The Trump takeback has more to do with the ‘split’ (or how much vig they’re charging) at a specific book than anything else. That’s likely the case with the differences in the Clinton prices. There’s a few outliers (a couple of UK books have Clinton at -700 with one having her at -800) but that likely has more to do with their particular ‘position’ on the election. The aforementioned books with the higher prices on Clinton all have Trump at +500 so they’re not exactly trying to attract players that want to back Donald. They could have too much money on Hillary and want to discourage any more Clinton money from coming in to their sportsbook.
NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 10/25/16:
Hillary Clinton:-600
Donald Trump: +450
Other: +4500
We’ve been focusing most of our attention over the past few days on the individual state races–more specifically, on states where there are interesting ballot measures up for a vote. We’ll try to find some additional Presidential props before election day but here’s a couple of new ones:
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SPECIALS
The first one isn’t *technically* a Presidential prop though the Clinton v. Trump race does influence it greatly:
Which party will control the Senate after the voting of 11/8/16?
Democratic Party: -350
Republican Party: +275
Will any Presidential candidate attract over 50% of the popular vote?
Yes: +120
No: -150
Hillary Clinton electoral vote count will be:
Over 359.5: +220
Under 359.5: -300
Donald Trump electoral vote count will be:
Over 359.5: +1000
Under 359.5: -2000
Hillary Clinton electoral vote count will be:
Over 370.5: +270
Under 370.5: -350
Donald Trump electoral vote count will be:
Over 370.5: +1250
Under 370.5: -2500
Democrats to control House of Representatives, Senate and White House?
Yes: +400
No: -600
Republicans to control House of Representatives, Senate and White House?
Yes: +450
No: -700