Political Betting–Graded 2016 Presidential Election Prop Bets As Of 12:00 AM EST

These are the results of the 2016 Presidential Election Prop bets as of midnight Eastern. We’ll have a full rundown (at least a rundown of everything that has been settled) on Wednesday.

As of now it looks like it might be a crazy day in the world financial markets on Wednesday. We’ve got a full list of ‘post election financial market performance odds’ that you can check out at the link below:

POST ELECTION FINANCIAL MARKET PERFORMANCE ODDS

A quick note about how these have been graded–the individual state Presidential results have been graded when a major national news source (CNN,Fox,MSNBC) has called the election *and* a local news outlet in the state concurs with their assessment. For example, the state of Nevada was graded after the Silver State was called for Clinton by CNN and KTNV-Las Vegas.

The statewide races are being graded in the same way only in reverse–the primary grading source is the local/state media outlet with verification by a national outlet. The remaining props are graded as circumstances warrant. There are a few ‘judgement calls’ based on current information (eg: grading the ‘Will Clinton win popular vote by over 10%’) but in as many instances as possible the props haven’t been graded until there’s two sources of verification. The goal is to try to grade these like an actual sportsbook would and believe me they’re not going to be handing over their money until the results are official.

2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PROPOSITION BETTING RESULTS

ALL RESULTS UPDATED AT 12:01 EASTERN ON 11/09/16

NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 11/07/16:

Hillary Clinton:-400
Donald Trump: +325 WIN
Other: +3500

2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SPECIALS


Winning popular vote share margin:

Clinton 20%+: +2500
Clinton 15-20%: +2000
Clinton 10-15%: +800
Clinton 5-10%: +275
Clinton 0-5%: +135
Trump 0-5%: +550 WIN
Trump 5-10%: +1400
Trump 10-15%: +2500
Trump 15-20%: +4000
Trump 20%+: +5000

Winning electoral college margin:

Clinton 410+: +5000
Clinton 390-409: +4000
Clinton 370-389: +2500
Clinton 350-369: +1000
Clinton 330-349: +500
Clinton 310-329: +250
Clinton 290-309: +600
Clinton 270-289: +800
Tie 269-269: +3300
Trump 270-289: +800 WIN
Trump 290-309: +1600
Trump 310-329: +2000
Trump 330-349: +2500
Trump 350-369: +3300
Trump 370-389: +4000
Trump 390-409: +5000
Trump 410+: +5000

Presidential Election Outcome Props:

Clinton to win popular vote by over 10%: +750 LOSS
Trump to win popular vote by over 10%: +750 LOSS
Popular vote winner loses in Electoral College: +700 LOSS
Obama still to be sitting President on Feb 1 2017: +3500 LOSS

Donald Trump to be the Republican candidate for President on 11/8/16

Yes: -3500 WIN
No: +2000

Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic candidate for President on 11/8/16

Yes: -2100 WIN
No: +1400

Mike Pence to be the Republican candidate for Vice-President on 11/8/16

Yes: -3500 WIN
No: +2000

Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting

Hillary Clinton -24.5 Electoral Votes: -340
Donald Trump +24.5 Electoral Votes: +280 WIN

Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting

Hillary Clinton -49.5 Electoral Votes: -225
Donald Trump +49.5 Electoral Votes: +175 WIN

Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting

Hillary Clinton -74.5 Electoral Votes: -165
Donald Trump +74.5 Electoral Votes: +145 WIN

Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting

Hillary Clinton -99.5 Electoral Votes: +130
Donald Trump +99.5 Electoral Votes: -150 WIN

Will Any Person Other Than Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump win a state?

Yes: +250
No: -375 WIN

Popular vote winner to win the election

Yes: -850 WIN
No: +700

Hillary Clinton total states won

21 States or less: +750 WIN
22-23 States: -500
24-25 States: -250
26-27 States: +150
28-29 States: +500
30 States or more: +700

Will the US Presidential Election be held on November 8, 2016?

Yes: -3500 WIN
No: +2250

Which party will win the Presidency?

Democrats: -400
Republicans: +350 WIN
Other: +3500

Gender of the next President of the United States?

Female: -400
Male: +350 WIN

Who will be elected Vice President of the United States?

Tim Kaine: -400
Mike Pence: +350 WIN

Who will win the popular vote for President of the United States?

Hillary Clinton: -400
Donald Trump: +350 WIN

Will Donald Trump win a state?

Yes: -50000 WIN
No: +25000

Next President to be anyone other than Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?

Yes: +5000
No: -12500 WIN

Will Donald Trump drop out of the election before October 31, 2016?

Yes: +5000
No: -7500 WIN

Will Mike Pence drop out of the election before October 31, 2016?

Yes: +4500
No: -7000 WIN

Will Hillary Clinton drop out of the election before October 31, 2016?

Yes: +5500
No: -8000 WIN

Which party will control the Senate after the voting of 11/8/16?

Democratic Party: -150
Republican Party: +120 WIN

Will any Presidential candidate attract over 50% of the popular vote?

Yes: +250
No: -425 WIN

Hillary Clinton electoral vote count will be:

Over 359.5: +900
Under 359.5: -1200 WIN

Donald Trump electoral vote count will be:

Over 359.5: +1250
Under 359.5: -2500 WIN

Hillary Clinton electoral vote count will be:

Over 370.5: +2500
Under 370.5: -4200 WIN

Donald Trump electoral vote count will be:

Over 370.5: +1750 WIN
Under 370.5: -3000

Democrats to control House of Representatives, Senate and White House?

Yes: +1500
No: -2000 WIN

Republicans to control House of Representatives, Senate and White House?

Yes: +500 WIN
No: -750

Will Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton concede the Presidential election by 12:01 AM on Wednesday, November 9?

Yes: +100
No: -120 WIN

Will Kellyanne Conway be Donald Trump’s campaign manager on November 7, 2016?

Yes: -1500 WIN
No: +950

Will Jennifer Palmieri be Hillary Clinton’s communications director on November 7, 2016?

Yes: -1400 WIN
No: +900

How many women will be in the President of the United States’ cabinet on March 31, 2017?

Over 7.5: +100
Under 7.5: -120

How many Federal deportations will there be in FY 2016?

Over 250,000: -450
Under 250,000: +300

Will Huma Abedin be Clinton Campaign Vice Chair on 11/7/16?

Yes: -750 WIN
No: +500

Will James Comey be FBI Director at 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/18?

Yes: +120
No: -150

Will James Comey resign as FBI Director before 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/17?

Yes: +225
No: -300

Will Janet Yellen be Federal Reserve Chair at 12:01 AM Eastern on 7/1/17?

Yes: -600
No: +450

Will the next President face Impeachment Charges from the Senate by 12:01 AM Eastern on 6/15/17?

Yes: +450
No: -600

Gary Johnson national vote share?

0 to 5%: -275
5% to 10%: +200
Over 10%: +2000

Will Donald Trump sever ties with the Republican Party before 12:01 AM Eastern on 12/1/16?

Yes: +450
No: -600

Will Donald Trump form a new political party before 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/17?

Yes: +900
No: -1500

Will Donald Trump form a new political party before 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/18?

Yes: +500
No: -750

Will Bernie Sanders form a new political party before 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/17?

Yes: +900
No: -1500

Will Bernie Sanders form a new political party before 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/18?

Yes: +450
No: -700

MEDIA POLLING PERCENTAGE SPECIALS


Hillary Clinton lead in Real Clear Politics average ‘two way’ poll against Donald Trump at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:

Over 3%: -115
Under 3% or Trump leads: -105 WIN

Hillary Clinton lead in Real Clear Politics average ‘four way’ poll against Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:

Over 3%: -120
Under 3% or Trump leads: +100 WIN

Who will be shown as Florida leader in Real Clear Politics average ‘two way’ poll between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:

Hillary Clinton: -105
Donald Trump: -115 WIN

Who will be shown as Florida leader in Real Clear Politics ‘four way’ poll between Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:

Hillary Clinton: -105
Donald Trump: -115 WIN

Hillary Clinton’s Poll Average at RealClearPolitics at 11:59 PM EDT on 10/3/16 will be:

OVER 43.1 -110 WIN
UNDER 43.1 -110

Donald Trump’s Poll Average at RealClearPolitics at 11:59 PM EDT on 10/3/16 will be:

OVER 41.5 -110
UNDER 41.5 -110 WIN

Will Donald Trump be shown as the leader in the Bloomberg Presidential Poll at 11:59 PM EDT on 10/3/16

YES -175 NO ACTION
NO +150 TIE

PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENT SPECIALS


Will Paul Ryan withdraw Trump endorsement?

Yes: +900
No: -1250 WIN

Will Ted Cruz withdraw Trump endorsement?

Yes: +950
No: -1500 WIN

Will Jeb Bush endorse Trump before Election Day?

Yes: +2500
No: -1750 WIN

Will John Kasich endorse Trump before Election Day?

Yes: +1500
No: -2100 WIN

VOTER TURNOUT SPECIALS


2016 Presidential Election Voter Turnout

66% or more: +750
62%–65.99%: +550
58%–61.99%: +275
54%–57.99%: +220
50%–53.99%: +350
49.99% or less: +450

2016 Presidential Election Voter Turnout

Over 51.7%: -110
Under 51.7%: -110

INDIVIDUAL STATE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SPECIALS


Which candidate will win Alabama’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -10000WIN
Hillary Clinton: +3500

Which candidate will win Alaska’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -525WIN
Hillary Clinton: +350

Which candidate will win Arizona’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -350WIN
Hillary Clinton: +275

Which candidate will win Arkansas’ electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -4500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1500

Which candidate will win California’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +2000
Hillary Clinton: -6000WIN

Which candidate will win Colorado’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +375
Hillary Clinton: -550WIN

Which candidate will win Connecticut’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +1250
Hillary Clinton: -2500WIN

Which candidate will win Delaware’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +900
Hillary Clinton: -1850WIN

Which candidate will win the District of Columbia’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +1500
Hillary Clinton: -5500WIN

Which candidate will win Florida’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +120WIN
Hillary Clinton: -150

Which candidate will win Georgia’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -600WIN
Hillary Clinton: +400

Which candidate will win Hawaii’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +2500
Hillary Clinton: -7500WIN

Which candidate will win Idaho’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -10000WIN
Hillary Clinton: +3500

Which candidate will win Illinois’ electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +1500
Hillary Clinton: -3500WIN

Which candidate will win Indiana’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -3000WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1350

Which candidate will win Iowa’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -450WIN
Hillary Clinton: +325

Which candidate will win Kansas’ electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -6000WIN
Hillary Clinton: +2000

Which candidate will win Kentucky’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -7500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +2500

Which candidate will win Louisiana’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -3500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1450

Which candidate will win Maine’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +575
Hillary Clinton: -1000WIN

Which candidate will win Maryland’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +2500
Hillary Clinton: -7500WIN

Which candidate will win Massachusetts’ electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +1600
Hillary Clinton: -4800WIN

Which candidate will win Michigan’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +325
Hillary Clinton: -475

Which candidate will win Minnesota’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +700
Hillary Clinton: -1250

Which candidate will win Mississippi’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -4800WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1600

Which candidate will win Missouri’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -2500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1250

Which candidate will win Montana’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -2500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1250

Which candidate will win Nebraska’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -3800WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1575

Which candidate will win Nevada’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +325
Hillary Clinton: -450WIN

Which candidate will win New Hampshire’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +225
Hillary Clinton: -275

Which candidate will win New Jersey’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +1250
Hillary Clinton: -2500WIN

Which candidate will win New Mexico’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +525
Hillary Clinton: -750WIN

Which candidate will win New York’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +1600
Hillary Clinton: -4800WIN

Which candidate will win North Carolina’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -110WIN
Hillary Clinton: -110

Which candidate will win North Dakota’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -3500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1550

Which candidate will win Ohio’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -250WIN
Hillary Clinton: +175

Which candidate will win Oklahoma’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -6600WIN
Hillary Clinton: +2200

Which candidate will win Oregon’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +1250
Hillary Clinton: -2500WIN

Which candidate will win Pennsylvania’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +350WIN
Hillary Clinton: -500

Which candidate will win Rhode Island’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +1250
Hillary Clinton: -2500WIN

Which candidate will win South Carolina’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -2500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1250

Which candidate will win South Dakota’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -3500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1750

Which candidate will win Tennessee’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -7500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +2500

Which candidate will win Texas’ electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -5000WIN
Hillary Clinton: +2250

Which candidate will win Utah’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -450WIN
Evan McMullin: +400
Hillary Clinton: +1500

Which candidate will win Vermont’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +1750
Hillary Clinton: -5000WIN

Which candidate will win Virginia’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +725
Hillary Clinton: -950WIN

Which candidate will win Washington’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +1250
Hillary Clinton: -2500WIN

Which candidate will win West Virginia’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -7500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +2500

Which candidate will win Wisconsin’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: +525WIN
Hillary Clinton: -1000

Which candidate will win Wyoming’s electoral votes?

Donald Trump: -2500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1250

INDIVIDUAL STATE VOTING SPECIALS


Will Nevada voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Ballot Question #2)

Yes: -120WIN
No: +100

Who will win the Nevada Senate race?

Joe Heck(Republican): +105
Catherine Cortez Masto(Democrat): -115WIN

Presidential Election margin of victory in California?

Over 22%: -250WIN
Under 22%: +175

Will California voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Proposition 64)

Yes: -250WIN
No: +175

Will California voters approve the condoms in adult films ballot measure? (Proposition 60)

Yes: -110
No: -110WIN

Who will win the vote for California’s open Senate seat vacated by Barbara Boxer?

Kamala Harris: -1950WIN
Loretta Sanchez: +1700

Who will win the vote for California’s 49th Congressional District seat?

Darrell Issa(Republican): -120
Doug Applegate(Democrat): +100

Who will win the vote for Governor of North Carolina?

Pat McCrory(Republican): +175
Roy Cooper(Democrat): -250

Will Massachusetts voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Ballot Question #4)

Yes: -600WIN
No: +450

Will Massachusetts voters approve the additional ‘slots only’ gambling ballot measure? (Ballot Question #1)

Yes: +150
No: -210WIN

Will Massachusetts voters approve the charter school expansion ballot measure? (Ballot Question #2)

Yes: +120
No: -150WIN

Will Massachusetts voters approve the small cage ban ballot measure? (Ballot Question #3)

Yes: -250WIN
No: +210

Will Maine voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Ballot Question #1)

Yes: -300
No: +250
Will Arkansas voters approve the Arkansas Medical Cannabis Act? (Ballot Question #7)

Yes: +225WIN
No: -300

Gary Johnson popular vote in New Mexico?

Over 9.9%: +120
Under 9.9% -150WIN

Who will win the Illinois Senate race?

Mark Kirk (R): +2100
Tammy Duckworth (D): -3000WIN

Who will win the Indiana Senate race?

Evan Bayh (D): +125
Todd Young (R): -175WIN

Who will win the Utah Senate race?

Misty Snow (D): +900
Mike Lee (R): -1500WIN

RULES: District of Columbia is not included in any ‘over/under’ state number bets

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.