Political Betting–Graded 2016 Presidential Election Prop Bets As Of 5:00 AM EST
UPDATE 11:00 AM 11/09/16: Hillary Clinton has a slight lead in the popular vote. For the time being, I’m going to leave the ‘to win popular vote’ and related prop bets open. I think everything else that’s ‘official’ has been graded.
Here’s the graded Presidential election prop bets as of 5:00 AM Eastern. Everything has been graded except:
–Prop bets that are not yet settled such as the O/U on the number of women in the next President’s cabinet. What will probably happen is that I’ll move this to a new set of odds for the early days of the Trump Presidency. I’m already working on this so you can expect your first set of ‘Trump Presidency Specials’ within the next 48 hours.
–Bets that were still ‘too close to call’ as of 5:00 AM such as the North Carolina governor’s race.
There’s a few things that aren’t quite ‘official’ that I’ve gone ahead and graded. For example, the prop on ‘Will Trump cut ties with the Republican Party’. I think we can safely assume that he won’t do so now.
I’ll continue to update the grading as bets become official.
Some sanity has returned to the stock markets and futures are down but substantially less than earlier in the evening when it first became apparent that Trump had a legit shot of winning. The $64,000 question now becomes ‘Will this sanity continue once the US financial markets open or will there be more panic selling?’. We’ve got a full list of ‘post election financial market performance odds’ that you can check out at the link below:
POST ELECTION FINANCIAL MARKET PERFORMANCE ODDS
I’ll have some post election betting analysis posted within the next 24 hours. I never was convinced that Trump could actually win though it was apparent to me that his support was being under-represented in polling. As you may have surmised from reading my political coverage I’m not a fan of either major party so I guess that means you’ll get a somewhat objective analysis out of me.
2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PROPOSITION BETTING RESULTS
ALL RESULTS UPDATED AT 12:01 EASTERN ON 11/09/16
NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 11/07/16:
Hillary Clinton:-400
Donald Trump: +325 WIN
Other: +3500
2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SPECIALS
Winning popular vote share margin:
Clinton 20%+: +2500
Clinton 15-20%: +2000
Clinton 10-15%: +800
Clinton 5-10%: +275
Clinton 0-5%: +135
Trump 0-5%: +550
Trump 5-10%: +1400
Trump 10-15%: +2500
Trump 15-20%: +4000
Trump 20%+: +5000
Winning electoral college margin:
Clinton 410+: +5000
Clinton 390-409: +4000
Clinton 370-389: +2500
Clinton 350-369: +1000
Clinton 330-349: +500
Clinton 310-329: +250
Clinton 290-309: +600
Clinton 270-289: +800
Tie 269-269: +3300
Trump 270-289: +800 WIN
Trump 290-309: +1600
Trump 310-329: +2000
Trump 330-349: +2500
Trump 350-369: +3300
Trump 370-389: +4000
Trump 390-409: +5000
Trump 410+: +5000
Presidential Election Outcome Props:
Clinton to win popular vote by over 10%: +750 LOSS
Trump to win popular vote by over 10%: +750 LOSS
Popular vote winner loses in Electoral College: +700
Obama still to be sitting President on Feb 1 2017: +3500 LOSS
Donald Trump to be the Republican candidate for President on 11/8/16
Yes: -3500 WIN
No: +2000
Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic candidate for President on 11/8/16
Yes: -2100 WIN
No: +1400
Mike Pence to be the Republican candidate for Vice-President on 11/8/16
Yes: -3500 WIN
No: +2000
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -24.5 Electoral Votes: -340
Donald Trump +24.5 Electoral Votes: +280 WIN
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -49.5 Electoral Votes: -225
Donald Trump +49.5 Electoral Votes: +175 WIN
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -74.5 Electoral Votes: -165
Donald Trump +74.5 Electoral Votes: +145 WIN
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -99.5 Electoral Votes: +130
Donald Trump +99.5 Electoral Votes: -150 WIN
Will Any Person Other Than Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump win a state?
Yes: +250
No: -375 WIN
Popular vote winner to win the election
Yes: -850
No: +700
Hillary Clinton total states won
21 States or less: +750 WIN
22-23 States: -500
24-25 States: -250
26-27 States: +150
28-29 States: +500
30 States or more: +700
Will the US Presidential Election be held on November 8, 2016?
Yes: -3500 WIN
No: +2250
Which party will win the Presidency?
Democrats: -400
Republicans: +350 WIN
Other: +3500
Gender of the next President of the United States?
Female: -400
Male: +350 WIN
Who will be elected Vice President of the United States?
Tim Kaine: -400
Mike Pence: +350 WIN
Who will win the popular vote for President of the United States?
Hillary Clinton: -400
Donald Trump: +350
Will Donald Trump win a state?
Yes: -50000 WIN
No: +25000
Next President to be anyone other than Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
Yes: +5000
No: -12500 WIN
Will Donald Trump drop out of the election before October 31, 2016?
Yes: +5000
No: -7500 WIN
Will Mike Pence drop out of the election before October 31, 2016?
Yes: +4500
No: -7000 WIN
Will Hillary Clinton drop out of the election before October 31, 2016?
Yes: +5500
No: -8000 WIN
Which party will control the Senate after the voting of 11/8/16?
Democratic Party: -150
Republican Party: +120 WIN
Will any Presidential candidate attract over 50% of the popular vote?
Yes: +250
No: -425 WIN
Hillary Clinton electoral vote count will be:
Over 359.5: +900
Under 359.5: -1200 WIN
Donald Trump electoral vote count will be:
Over 359.5: +1250
Under 359.5: -2500 WIN
Hillary Clinton electoral vote count will be:
Over 370.5: +2500
Under 370.5: -4200 WIN
Donald Trump electoral vote count will be:
Over 370.5: +1750 WIN
Under 370.5: -3000
Democrats to control House of Representatives, Senate and White House?
Yes: +1500
No: -2000 WIN
Republicans to control House of Representatives, Senate and White House?
Yes: +500 WIN
No: -750
Will Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton concede the Presidential election by 12:01 AM on Wednesday, November 9?
Yes: +100
No: -120 WIN
Will Kellyanne Conway be Donald Trump’s campaign manager on November 7, 2016?
Yes: -1500 WIN
No: +950
Will Jennifer Palmieri be Hillary Clinton’s communications director on November 7, 2016?
Yes: -1400 WIN
No: +900
How many women will be in the President of the United States’ cabinet on March 31, 2017?
Over 7.5: +100
Under 7.5: -120
How many Federal deportations will there be in FY 2016?
Over 250,000: -450
Under 250,000: +300
Will Huma Abedin be Clinton Campaign Vice Chair on 11/7/16?
Yes: -750 WIN
No: +500
Will James Comey be FBI Director at 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/18?
Yes: +120
No: -150
Will James Comey resign as FBI Director before 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/17?
Yes: +225
No: -300
Will Janet Yellen be Federal Reserve Chair at 12:01 AM Eastern on 7/1/17?
Yes: -600
No: +450
Will the next President face Impeachment Charges from the Senate by 12:01 AM Eastern on 6/15/17?
Yes: +450
No: -600
Gary Johnson national vote share?
0 to 5%: -275 WIN
5% to 10%: +200
Over 10%: +2000
Will Donald Trump sever ties with the Republican Party before 12:01 AM Eastern on 12/1/16?
Yes: +450
No: -600 WIN
Will Donald Trump form a new political party before 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/17?
Yes: +900
No: -1500 WIN
Will Donald Trump form a new political party before 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/18?
Yes: +500
No: -750 WIN
Will Bernie Sanders form a new political party before 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/17?
Yes: +900
No: -1500
Will Bernie Sanders form a new political party before 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/18?
Yes: +450
No: -700
MEDIA POLLING PERCENTAGE SPECIALS
Hillary Clinton lead in Real Clear Politics average ‘two way’ poll against Donald Trump at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Over 3%: -115
Under 3% or Trump leads: -105 WIN
Hillary Clinton lead in Real Clear Politics average ‘four way’ poll against Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Over 3%: -120
Under 3% or Trump leads: +100 WIN
Who will be shown as Florida leader in Real Clear Politics average ‘two way’ poll between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Hillary Clinton: -105
Donald Trump: -115 WIN
Who will be shown as Florida leader in Real Clear Politics ‘four way’ poll between Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Hillary Clinton: -105
Donald Trump: -115 WIN
Hillary Clinton’s Poll Average at RealClearPolitics at 11:59 PM EDT on 10/3/16 will be:
OVER 43.1 -110 WIN
UNDER 43.1 -110
Donald Trump’s Poll Average at RealClearPolitics at 11:59 PM EDT on 10/3/16 will be:
OVER 41.5 -110
UNDER 41.5 -110 WIN
Will Donald Trump be shown as the leader in the Bloomberg Presidential Poll at 11:59 PM EDT on 10/3/16
YES -175 NO ACTION
NO +150 TIE
PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENT SPECIALS
Will Paul Ryan withdraw Trump endorsement?
Yes: +900
No: -1250 WIN
Will Ted Cruz withdraw Trump endorsement?
Yes: +950
No: -1500 WIN
Will Jeb Bush endorse Trump before Election Day?
Yes: +2500
No: -1750 WIN
Will John Kasich endorse Trump before Election Day?
Yes: +1500
No: -2100 WIN
VOTER TURNOUT SPECIALS
2016 Presidential Election Voter Turnout
66% or more: +750
62%–65.99%: +550
58%–61.99%: +275
54%–57.99%: +220
50%–53.99%: +350
49.99% or less: +450
2016 Presidential Election Voter Turnout
Over 51.7%: -110
Under 51.7%: -110
INDIVIDUAL STATE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SPECIALS
Which candidate will win Alabama’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -10000WIN
Hillary Clinton: +3500
Which candidate will win Alaska’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -525WIN
Hillary Clinton: +350
Which candidate will win Arizona’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -350WIN
Hillary Clinton: +275
Which candidate will win Arkansas’ electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -4500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1500
Which candidate will win California’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +2000
Hillary Clinton: -6000WIN
Which candidate will win Colorado’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +375
Hillary Clinton: -550WIN
Which candidate will win Connecticut’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1250
Hillary Clinton: -2500WIN
Which candidate will win Delaware’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +900
Hillary Clinton: -1850WIN
Which candidate will win the District of Columbia’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1500
Hillary Clinton: -5500WIN
Which candidate will win Florida’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +120WIN
Hillary Clinton: -150
Which candidate will win Georgia’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -600WIN
Hillary Clinton: +400
Which candidate will win Hawaii’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +2500
Hillary Clinton: -7500WIN
Which candidate will win Idaho’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -10000WIN
Hillary Clinton: +3500
Which candidate will win Illinois’ electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1500
Hillary Clinton: -3500WIN
Which candidate will win Indiana’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -3000WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1350
Which candidate will win Iowa’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -450WIN
Hillary Clinton: +325
Which candidate will win Kansas’ electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -6000WIN
Hillary Clinton: +2000
Which candidate will win Kentucky’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -7500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +2500
Which candidate will win Louisiana’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -3500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1450
Which candidate will win Maine’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +575
Hillary Clinton: -1000WIN
Which candidate will win Maryland’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +2500
Hillary Clinton: -7500WIN
Which candidate will win Massachusetts’ electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1600
Hillary Clinton: -4800WIN
Which candidate will win Michigan’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +325
Hillary Clinton: -475
Which candidate will win Minnesota’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +700
Hillary Clinton: -1250
Which candidate will win Mississippi’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -4800WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1600
Which candidate will win Missouri’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -2500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1250
Which candidate will win Montana’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -2500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1250
Which candidate will win Nebraska’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -3800WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1575
Which candidate will win Nevada’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +325
Hillary Clinton: -450WIN
Which candidate will win New Hampshire’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +225
Hillary Clinton: -275
Which candidate will win New Jersey’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1250
Hillary Clinton: -2500WIN
Which candidate will win New Mexico’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +525
Hillary Clinton: -750WIN
Which candidate will win New York’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1600
Hillary Clinton: -4800WIN
Which candidate will win North Carolina’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -110WIN
Hillary Clinton: -110
Which candidate will win North Dakota’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -3500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1550
Which candidate will win Ohio’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -250WIN
Hillary Clinton: +175
Which candidate will win Oklahoma’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -6600WIN
Hillary Clinton: +2200
Which candidate will win Oregon’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1250
Hillary Clinton: -2500WIN
Which candidate will win Pennsylvania’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +350WIN
Hillary Clinton: -500
Which candidate will win Rhode Island’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1250
Hillary Clinton: -2500WIN
Which candidate will win South Carolina’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -2500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1250
Which candidate will win South Dakota’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -3500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1750
Which candidate will win Tennessee’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -7500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +2500
Which candidate will win Texas’ electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -5000WIN
Hillary Clinton: +2250
Which candidate will win Utah’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -450WIN
Evan McMullin: +400
Hillary Clinton: +1500
Which candidate will win Vermont’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1750
Hillary Clinton: -5000WIN
Which candidate will win Virginia’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +725
Hillary Clinton: -950WIN
Which candidate will win Washington’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1250
Hillary Clinton: -2500WIN
Which candidate will win West Virginia’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -7500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +2500
Which candidate will win Wisconsin’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +525WIN
Hillary Clinton: -1000
Which candidate will win Wyoming’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -2500WIN
Hillary Clinton: +1250
INDIVIDUAL STATE VOTING SPECIALS
Will Nevada voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Ballot Question #2)
Yes: -120WIN
No: +100
Who will win the Nevada Senate race?
Joe Heck(Republican): +105
Catherine Cortez Masto(Democrat): -115WIN
Presidential Election margin of victory in California?
Over 22%: -250WIN
Under 22%: +175
Will California voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Proposition 64)
Yes: -250WIN
No: +175
Will California voters approve the condoms in adult films ballot measure? (Proposition 60)
Yes: -110
No: -110WIN
Who will win the vote for California’s open Senate seat vacated by Barbara Boxer?
Kamala Harris: -1950WIN
Loretta Sanchez: +1700
Who will win the vote for California’s 49th Congressional District seat?
Darrell Issa(Republican): -120
Doug Applegate(Democrat): +100
Who will win the vote for Governor of North Carolina?
Pat McCrory(Republican): +175
Roy Cooper(Democrat): -250
Will Massachusetts voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Ballot Question #4)
Yes: -600WIN
No: +450
Will Massachusetts voters approve the additional ‘slots only’ gambling ballot measure? (Ballot Question #1)
Yes: +150
No: -210WIN
Will Massachusetts voters approve the charter school expansion ballot measure? (Ballot Question #2)
Yes: +120
No: -150WIN
Will Massachusetts voters approve the small cage ban ballot measure? (Ballot Question #3)
Yes: -250WIN
No: +210
Will Maine voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Ballot Question #1)
Yes: -300WIN
No: +250
Will Arkansas voters approve the Arkansas Medical Cannabis Act? (Ballot Question #7)
Yes: +225WIN
No: -300
Gary Johnson popular vote in New Mexico?
Over 9.9%: +120
Under 9.9% -150WIN
Who will win the Illinois Senate race?
Mark Kirk (R): +2100
Tammy Duckworth (D): -3000WIN
Who will win the Indiana Senate race?
Evan Bayh (D): +125
Todd Young (R): -175WIN
Who will win the Utah Senate race?
Misty Snow (D): +900
Mike Lee (R): -1500WIN
RULES: District of Columbia is not included in any ‘over/under’ state number bets