Political Betting–Latest Hillary Clinton Email Revelations Hit The Betting Marketplace
In last night’s ‘Late Week Update’ on the 2016 Presidential Election betting odds and their movement we suggested that ‘something was going on’ to draw money to Republican nominee Donald Trump though we admitted that we weren’t exactly clear on what it was. Whether the previous movement on Trump was based on hunches or something else the other shoe dropped today and it dropped hard.
FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress that indicated the discovery of new emails relevant to the investigation into Hillary Clinton and her now infamous ‘private email server’. Comey doesn’t say so explicitly but the interpretation from most experts is that the Feds are re-opening the investigation into the Democratic Presidential Nominee. Some legal experts have suggested that the investigation was never actually ‘closed’ even though Comey had recommended against charges being filed in a statement that her supporters hailed as a ‘vindication’ of Clinton (it wasn’t).
WHAT THE NEW REVELATIONS MEAN FROM A PRACTICAL STANDPOINT
It’s not my job to interpret what the new email revelations mean for Clinton legally or politically. There are plenty of people who will do that, inevitably colored by their own ideological biases. My job is to interpret the latest news from a practical standpoint of what it will likely mean for the betting marketplace. In fact, the betting marketplace has done a lot of that work for me since after a couple of weeks of ‘stasis’ the market has been moving for the past few days with an incremental move toward Trump. Now that move has become a flood of Trump money with a corresponding change in the odds.
Last night, the consensus odds among European sportsbooks was right around -500 to -550. The official SportsBettingExperts.com line on the 2016 Presidential Election had Hillary as a -525 favorite with takeback on Trump at +450. We’ll get to the SBE Line in just a moment but first let’s look at the profound movement in Europe. The ‘consensus line’ there is now Hillary Clinton -350 with a few at -400 and a few more at -300. Takeback on Trump has also dropped with +275 being the most common number available.
Here’s the latest SportsBettingExperts.com ‘SBE Line’ based on today’s news:
NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 10/28/16:
Hillary Clinton:-350
Donald Trump: +275
Other: +3500
The odds we posted last night (10/27/16):
Hillary Clinton:-525
Donald Trump: +415
Other: +3750
Our previous update on 10/25/16 looked like this:
Hillary Clinton:-600
Donald Trump: +450
Other: +4500
The betting trends moving the market today are obvious–a flood of Trump money based on the news of the new Clinton emails discovered. Currently, 48% of all bets are coming on Trump, 37% on Clinton and most interestingly, 15% coming on ‘Other’. In light of the sustained ‘Other’ money I’ve once again moved the price in our SBE Presidential Election odds. There’s an obvious logic to the ‘Other’ money now–bettors are taking a position based on the potential that a candidate will withdraw (by decision or force) in favor of a substitute candidate. Bernie Sanders is drawing over 6% of the betting market with sizable positions also on Vice President Joe Biden and Republican Senator Marco Rubio. I’m expecting more money to come for ‘Other’ candidates either generally or specifically. The latest Clinton email fiasco at least heightens the chances she’ll be asked to abandon her candidacy. Personally, I don’t see it happening but it’s clear that at least some in the betting marketplace think it’s a possibility.
As far as the money movement dynamic between Clinton and Trump it’s fairly obvious–the Trump money is coming based on the perception of a renewed viability to his campaign. At the same time, there’s a decent amount of Clinton money coming based on the perception that she’ll still win and wanting to get a value price. If you still think Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States you can get her now at nearly half the price you’d have had to pay earlier this week.
Look for additional updates tonight. I’ll provide further analysis on what is going on both nationally and in individual states. We’ll also ‘re-price’ some of the proposition bet odds based on the new information.