Political Betting–More Prop Bet Odds On The Third Presidential Debate
Doing proposition bet odds on these Presidential debates has been like the old Lay’s Potato Chips catch phrase. You can’t set just one. There are so many possibilities on so many topics that once you get started you’re always coming up with new ideas. We did a bunch of odds on the third debate yesterday and here’s some more. You can expect another batch tomorrow. On Wednesday morning, I’ll compile all of them into one post just to help you keep them straight.
There are plenty of people on the Internet posting ‘goofy odds’ on a variety of topics but from a bookmaking standpoint I try to take these somewhat seriously. They’re priced like real sportsbook odds with ‘vig’ factored in. I take the valuation seriously and price them according to probability percentage. Every moneyline price has a corresponding ‘implied probability’. For example, at +100 (even money) the ‘implied probability’ is 50%. At -150 the implied probability is 60%. At -550 it’s 84.62%. There is some guesswork on the probability of, say, how many times Trump will say ‘tremendous’ but there’s ways to ‘handicap’ this and to come up with a reasonable probability figure. Once you have that, setting the odds is just a little bit of math. Generally, my oddsmaking rule for any non-sport prop bet you see here in politics, entertainment or whatever is this: If I wouldn’t personally take a bet on a proposition as priced I won’t post it here.
I also write them in such a way that they can be definitively graded. For example, you couldn’t do a prop on ‘Will either candidate say something stupid’?. That’s a normative judgement, not a betting proposition. There’s also so much ambiguity as to make it unworkable. If you wanted to do a prop like this you have to write it in such a way where there’s a binary outcome. Furthermore, you also need an information source for grading purposes to eliminate ambiguity. So to do this kind of prop you could write it like this:
Will John Oliver say that a candidate ‘said something stupid’ during the third debate on his 10/23 HBO show?
Yes: +150
No: -175
Rules: Oliver must refer to a comment by either or both candidates as ‘stupid’. Synonyms will not be accepted.
This way there’s a definitive grading source, an objective criteria and a binary outcome. Either Oliver will or won’t say that a candidate said something stupid. It’s impossible to write every betting proposition in such a way to completely eliminate controversy. This is especially true when you get into ‘non sports’ type props. Something is always happening that requires ‘interpretation’ but a good bookmaker can eliminate 99% of this by properly wording his prop bets.
Another thing that some sportsbook do that I don’t is ‘one sided’ propositions. These are bets where the player can bet on the affirmative but not the negative. For example, several sportsbooks have a line on the ‘Hillary Clinton drug test’ prop but done as follows:
Hillary Clinton to take a drug test before the third debate: +1750
So you can bet that she *will* take a drug test but not the more likely outcome that she *won’t* take a drug test. I’ve never liked this and most of the bookmakers I respect avoid this. Even if an event is very unlikely, you can do the valuations and pricing properly for each side. Most sportsbooks that cater to a ‘wise guy’ clientele know better than to do this type of ‘one sided’ prop.
Here’s the right way to do it:
Will Hillary Clinton take a drug test prior to the third debate?
Yes: +1750
No: -2500
Writing prop bets on non-sport topics like entertainment, technology, business, etc. is fun because it really provides an intellectual workout. There is a definite skill to setting good prices on sporting events but once you do enough of them it becomes an almost automatic process, particularly in the National Football League. Also, there’s so many sportsbooks posting NFL lines that within a matter of hours they all come into equilibrium due to money moment or more often books moving ‘on air’ to keep their numbers in line with the competition.
Anyway, that’s some ‘behind the scenes’ factors that go into setting these odds. For a sports handicapper, the more he learns and understands the process of linesmaking the more profitable he’ll be. In fact, knowing a lot about how sports books run, how lines are set and how the betting marketplace operates is significantly more valuable to a bettor than an exhaustive knowledge of the sports you’re wagering on.
THIRD PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE SPECIALS
Proposition odds on the third Presidential debate to be held Wednesday, October 19 in Las Vegas, NV
How many times will Donald Trump say ‘tremendous’?
Over 8.5: -110
Under 8.5: -130
How many times will Donald Trump say ‘make America great again”?
Over 2.5: +110
Under 2.5: 150
How many times will ‘Wikileaks’ be said during the third debate?
Over 3.5: +100
Under 3.5: -150
Will ‘Open Borders’ be mentioned at third debate?
Yes: -250
No: +195
Will Hillary Clinton say ‘Trump University’ at third debate?
Yes: +210
No: -290
Will Hillary Clinton say ‘Billy Bush’ at third debate?
Yes: +400
No: -600
Will Hillary Clinton say ‘tiny hands’ at third debate?
Yes: +3500
No: -13500
Will Hillary Clinton say ‘basket of deplorables’ at third debate?
Yes: +3500
No: -13500
Will Donald Trump say ‘Donna Brazile’ at third debate?
Yes: -135
No: +110
Will Donald Trump say ‘drug test’ at third debate?
Yes: +250
No: -350
Will Donald Trump say ‘locker room talk’ at third debate?
Yes: +125
No: -170
Will either candidate say ‘Anderson Cooper’ at third debate?
Yes: +400
No: -600
Will either candidate say ‘Howard Stern’ at third debate?
Yes: +300
No: -425
Will either candidate say ‘John McCain’ at third debate?
Yes: +125
No: -175
Will either candidate say ‘LeBron James’ at third debate?
Yes: +350
No: -475
Will either candidate say ‘Megyn Kelly’ at third debate?
Yes: +450
No: -750
Will either candidate say ‘Lorne Michaels’ at third debate?
Yes: +1500
No: -4500
Will either candidate say ‘Michelle Obama’ at third debate?
Yes: +150
No: -190
Will either candidate say ‘Mike Pence’ at third debate?
Yes: -120
No: -120
Will either candidate say ‘Monica Lewinsky’ at third debate?
Yes: +500
No: -900
Will either candidate say ‘Osama Bin Laden’ at third debate?
Yes: +115
No: -155
Will either candidate say ‘Ronald Reagan’ at third debate?
Yes: +140
No: -180
Will either candidate say ‘Vladimir Putin’ at third debate?
Yes: -180
No: +140
Will either candidate say ‘casino’ at third debate?
Yes: +160
No: -210
First topic discussed in third debate will be:
Fitness to be President: +120
Immigration: +350
Economy: +350
Supreme Court +550
Foreign Hot Spots: +850
Debt and Entitlements: +850
Who will be the designer of Hillary Clinton’s suit? (If maker not reported in the media bet is ‘no action’)
Ralph Lauren: -250
Nina McLemore: +350
Armaini: +400
Marc Jacobs: +400
Calvin Klein: +600
What color will Hillary Clinton’s jacket be?
Blue: +120
White: +200
Black: +400
Red: +400
Print or Pattern: +600
Clinton to not wear a suit: +2000
What color tie will Donald Trump wear?
Red: -120
Blue: +200
Striped: +600
Gold: +1100
Yellow: +1100
Who will win the CNN post debate poll?
Hillary Clinton: -350
Donald Trump +275
Will Hillary Clinton take a drug test prior to the third debate?
Yes: +1750
No: -2500
Will Donald Trump walk out during the live broadcast of the third debate?
Yes: +750
No: -1200
Viewership for the third debate as reported by Nielsen?
Over 84 million: +600
Under 84 million: -1000
Viewership for the third debate as reported by Nielsen?
Over 66.5 million: +120
Under 66.5 million: -150
RULES: Debate must take place in Las Vegas, Nevada on or before October 20, 2016. Any other rescheduling, cancellation or venue change voids all bets. All mentions must be exact and verbatim unless specified otherwise. Mention can be within a longer phrase or sentence but must be said without any additional words. For example, if a candidate says ‘Who is Evan McMullan and why should I care’? it will count as a valid mention of ‘Evan McMullan’. If a candidate says ‘Who is Evan Freakin’ McMullan and why should I care?’ it would not count as a valid mention. Phrases or topics must be said by Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton or moderator Chris Wallace during the actual debate unless specified otherwise to count as a valid mention. ‘Actual debate’ does not include individual network analysis or pre/post debate coverage.