Political Betting–New 2016 Presidential Election Prop Bet Odds
The Presidential Election 2016 is set for Tuesday, November 8 which is now exactly one week away. The matchup between Republican Candidate Donald Trump, Democratic Candidate Hillary Clinton and (in Utah at least) Independent Evan McMullin has heated up considerably since this time last week. We’ll be adding new 2016 Election prop bet odds all the way up to (and maybe even during) Tuesday’s General Election.
HILLARY HAS A ROUGH WEEK AHEAD
One difficult thing about setting proposition bet odds on the political process is that the relevant players are always changing. Within the past 10 days Clinton Campaign Vice Chair Huma Abadin has taken a much more significant role and we’re talking about such disparate people as Anthony Weiner, FBI Director James Comey, James Carville (who may have taken leave of his senses earlier today) and the unctuous Donna Brazille. The mainstream media is desperately trying to carry water for Hillary Clinton, at this hour trying to revive the ‘Trump cheated on his taxes’ dead horse that they’d flogged to death earlier in the campaign. The ‘official’ strategy of Team Clinton seems to be an all out attack on FBI Director Comey for releasing the damaging information before the election. That’s a curious strategy since it implies that they wanted to keep the voters in the dark until *after* Clinton got elected and they’re pissed at Comey for not going along with the plan.
All the while there is still the Wikileaks treasure trove of emails. The original game plan against this was to insist that they were ‘fake’ or ‘doctored’ but their email headers quickly dispelled those notions–not that it stopped the insistance of some Clinton supplicants that they were bogus (which as one InfoSec expert noted would have required the collusion of several governments, political parties and individuals on an unprecedented level to pull off). Clinton’s health is reportedly not good–this was dismissed as a ‘conspiracy theory’ by her sycophants originally until her collapse, her disappearance from the campaign trail (due to ‘pneumonia’ was the official explanation) and her recent habit of wearing sunglasses indoors more often than Roy Orbison went a long way toward validating the original claim. The aforementioned Wikilinks emails have a ton of damaging storylines, most significant the appearance of corruption and influence pedaling at the Clinton Foundation. The level of brazen money grabbing and minimal effort to legitimize what was clearly selling access to Bill Clinton is almost unfathomable.
There’s also a ‘paper trail’ suggesting that the Obama cabinet was essentially put together before he took office by high level Wall Street power brokers. Throw in Donna Brazille being caught sending verbatim debate questions to Hillary Clinton in advance (possibly provided by CNN and/or debate organizers) and it’s a three ring circus of political sleaze. I’m not a fan of either candidate but it sure makes anything that Donald Trump has done look quaint and unlike Hillary he’s done most of his ‘naughty things’ on his own dime. The entire Clinton family has turned their political connection into a sleazy racket all paid for by US taxpayers–and deep pocketed corporate donors.
Watching Hillary trying to deal with the latest Comey revelations is almost sad. It just doesn’t look like she has the ability to ‘play the spin game’ like she used to. It’s like watching Mike Tyson trying to fight Lennox Lewis and realizing that the one time ‘baddest man on the planet’ is in over his head. Hillary may get past this but it won’t be due to anything she’s done–instead it will be due to her toadies and supplicants, financial benefactors and media co-conspirators dragging her through it.
It’s the latest plot twist in a battle for power in the increasingly irrelevant US government, a matchup between two loathsome people of retirement age who brag about their level of tech ignorance while trying to sell analog economic remedies for a digital world that is quickly passing them by. A frequent mantra is that ‘America is doomed’ but the reality is that America–or at least its people–are just fine. The mythology that the US government is capable of doing anything besides waging war and throwing people in jail is doomed, as is the illusion that the ‘bossman’ that runs this outdated enterprise has any importance whatsoever. The government has been desperately trying to maintain the status quo economically and socially at the behest of their financial benefactors for years. We’re watching the whole wretched system implode as decentralized autonomy and the freedom it brings takes its place.
So let’s look at the current Presidential odds and then serve up some new proposition bets. If you want more analysis on the recent odds movements in the big ‘To win the Presidency’ wager it was covered in depth earlier today:
NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 10/31/16:
Hillary Clinton:-300
Donald Trump: +225
Other: +3000
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SPECIALS
Will Huma Abedin be Clinton Campaign Vice Chair on 11/7/16?
Yes: -450
No: +325
Gary Johnson popular vote in New Mexico?
Over 9.9%: -150
Under 9.9% +130
Who will win the Illinois Senate race?
Mark Kirk (R): +1500
Tammy Duckworth (D): -2150
Who will win the Indiana Senate race?
Evan Bayh (D): -110
Todd Young (R): -110
Who will win the Utah Senate race?
Misty Snow (D): +525
Mike Lee (R): -650
Hillary Clinton lead in Real Clear Politics average ‘two way’ poll against Donald Trump at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Over 3%: -115
Under 3% or Trump leads: -105
Hillary Clinton lead in Real Clear Politics average ‘four way’ poll against Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Over 3%: -120
Under 3% or Trump leads: +100
Who will be shown as Florida leader in Real Clear Politics average ‘two way’ poll between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Hillary Clinton: -105
Donald Trump: -115
Who will be shown as Florida leader in Real Clear Politics ‘four way’ poll between Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Hillary Clinton: -105
Donald Trump: -115
In upcoming posts we’ll add some props on how the financial markets will react to the election outcome, odds on cabinet positions, odds in individual states and more.