Political Betting–Updated Odds On All 2016 Presidential Election Proposition Bets
This is going to be the ‘master list’ of 2016 Presidential Election Prop Bet Odds. We’ll reprint this next week so you can follow along on election day. We’ll also update these prices as needed and add in any bets that we come up with in the interim. The most likely schedule will be another update on Monday prior to Election Day. As soon as possible following Election Day I’ll post this list with bets ‘graded’ so you can see the winning side in each proposition.
A couple of notes on how I’m making and ‘moving’ these numbers. First of all, I don’t trust polling. I’ve had a hunch throughout that the majority of polling is underestimating Trump’s support. This isn’t entirely for ‘ideological’ reasons (though there’s certainly some of that as we’ll discuss in a moment). In fact, the more salient reason might be that no one has figured out the right polling methodology to properly assess his support base. The Republicans didn’t figure it out during their nomination process–if they had we’d be talking about ‘Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush’ at this point. I’m not convinced that the polling since the party nominees have been set are any better. There’s a tendency to stereotype Trump’s supporters and treat them as a caricature. This might make his opponents feel smugly superior but it doesn’t do much to create an accurate polling model.
IS MEDIA POLLING ACCURATE?:
It’s also apparent that Hillary Clinton has plenty of supplicants in the media and elsewhere looking to prop up her floundering campaign. This has less to do with ideology as it does with an effort to maintain the ‘status quo’. Trump isn’t really the ‘outsider’ candidate that his supporters think he is–a real ‘outsider’ would know that real change doesn’t come from government, it comes despite it. For the purposes of the election, however, he is an ‘outsider’ in the sense that he isn’t a puppet of the ‘sociopolitical elite’ that virtually all presidential candidates have been. Clinton is as ‘establishment’ of a candidate as you can find with supporters in all of the ‘legacy’ power bases that are being threatened by the digital era. The broadcast media and Wall Street insiders are likely the most obvious. I’m no Bernie Sanders fan (he’s more of a phony ‘outsider’ than Trump) but it was evident that his campaign was getting a lot of traction and that the Clinton cabal did everything they could to bury him. They’ve tried to do that with Trump–as has his own party–but they don’t have the same influence via party machinery they did with Sanders.
Back to polling for a moment–I’ve started to research the methodology used by many of the ‘major media’ polling and some of it is of such boneheaded construction that the only explanation can be a) sheer stupidity or b) a pre-existing agenda. There might be some of ‘a’ but most of it is ‘b’–they have a vested interest in over-representing Clinton’s support and underrepresenting Trump’s.
For example, the ABC poll had Clinton up by 12% points over Trump. They used the most recent FBI revelations to ‘walk that back’ to give Hillary a 1% point lead over Trump. So where did that 11% points go? Clearly, there was some change in opinion due to the FBI email revelations but the change in the ABC poll happened at virtually the same time the information was released. The only explanation–they figured that they needed to revise their numbers so they wouldn’t look stupid in hindsight after Trump won or Hillary won by nowhere near the margin indicated.
All of that being said–I’m trying to base the lines I’m ‘hanging’ and moving between now and the election on the movements I’m observing in the European betting markets. I’m using the European market due to its sheer size and vitality. I’m either extrapolating directly or derivatively from these numbers I have no opinion or preference in who wins this election so you’ll have to come up with another explanation than assuming that I’m ‘pro Trump’ or ‘pro Hillary’. These candidates are relics of the analog era running to be ‘bossman’ of a coercive central government–a concept which is becoming less relevant every day as the world embraces true freedom and decentralization. On Tuesday, I’m not voting–I’m going to eat sushi. I’ve got a few wagers on props related to the election that I’d like to win but aside from that a) it doesn’t matter who wins and b) I don’t care who wins.
ABOUT THE ‘FULL ODDS RUNDOWN’ LIST:
This list is divided into general category areas starting with the most basic of these odds–the outright result of the 2016 Presidential Election. I’ll be giving my analysis of the movement in this market in a separate article. This list will be updated on Monday and possibly during the weekend if events warrant. As soon after the election as possible I’ll post a full list of ‘graded’ bets. Note that a few more bets have been ‘graded’ and I’ll grade any completed bets as I update prior to the election.
Quick procedural note–I deleted one prop bet because I didn’t like the way it was worded and there are other bets that more accurately cover the same topic. That bet was:
Will Donald Trump accept the election result?
Yes: -450
No: +375
Just not enough specificity–Trump could lose the election and not contest it formally but not *personally* ‘accept’ the result. Loopholes you can drive a truck through. Sorry for hanging such a weak proposition.
The 2016 Presidential Election is on Tuesday, November 8. And don’t forget that your VOTE BET matters….
Shout out to REALCLEARPOLITICS.COM which is just an amazing resource of polling data and information. It’s been invaluable in formulating all of these proposition bet odds.
ALL ODDS UPDATED AT 12:01 EASTERN ON 11/05/16
NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 11/05/16:
Hillary Clinton:-275
Donald Trump: +200
Other: +3500
2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SPECIALS
Winning popular vote share margin:
Clinton 20%+: +3300
Clinton 15-20%: +3300
Clinton 10-15%: +1600
Clinton 5-10%: +300
Clinton 0-5%: +200
Trump 0-5%: +350
Trump 5-10%: +800
Trump 10-15%: +2000
Trump 15-20%: +3300
Trump 20%+: +5000
Winning electoral college margin:
Clinton 410+: +800
Clinton 390-409: +1000
Clinton 370-389: +800
Clinton 350-369: +400
Clinton 330-349: +300
Clinton 310-329: +800
Clinton 290-309: +1200
Clinton 270-289: +1400
Tie 269-269: +10000
Trump 270-289: +1400
Trump 290-309: +1600
Trump 310-329: +2000
Trump 330-349: +3300
Trump 350-369: +5000
Trump 370-389: +6600
Trump 390-409: +10000
Trump 410+: +5000
Presidential Election Outcome Props:
Clinton to win popular vote by over 10%: +750
Trump to win popular vote by over 10%: +750
Popular vote winner loses in Electoral College: +700
Obama still to be sitting President on Feb 1 2017: +2500
Donald Trump to be the Republican candidate for President on 11/8/16
Yes: -3500
No: +2000
Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic candidate for President on 11/8/16
Yes: -2100
No: +1400
Mike Pence to be the Republican candidate for Vice-President on 11/8/16
Yes: -3500
No: +2000
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -24.5 Electoral Votes: -210
Donald Trump +24.5 Electoral Votes: +150
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -49.5 Electoral Votes: -150
Donald Trump +49.5 Electoral Votes: +110
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -74.5 Electoral Votes: +100
Donald Trump +74.5 Electoral Votes: -140
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -99.5 Electoral Votes: +150
Donald Trump +99.5 Electoral Votes: -210
Will Any Person Other Than Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump win a state?
Yes: -110
No: -110
Popular vote winner to win the election
Yes: -525
No: +350
Hillary Clinton total states won
21 States or less: +350
22-23 States: +500
24-25 States: +260
26-27 States: +333
28-29 States: +750
30 States or more: +1100
Will the US Presidential Election be held on November 8, 2016?
Yes: -3500
No: +2250
Which party will win the Presidency?
Democrats: -300
Republicans: +250
Other: +3500
Gender of the next President of the United States?
Female: -300
Male: +225
Who will be elected Vice President of the United States?
Tim Kaine: -300
Mike Pence: +225
Who will win the popular vote for President of the United States?
Hillary Clinton: -300
Donald Trump: +225
Will Donald Trump win a state?
Yes: -25000
No: +12500
Next President to be anyone other than Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
Yes: +3500
No: -4200
Will Donald Trump drop out of the election before October 31, 2016?
Yes: +5000
No: -7500 WIN
Will Mike Pence drop out of the election before October 31, 2016?
Yes: +4500
No: -7000 WIN
Will Hillary Clinton drop out of the election before October 31, 2016?
Yes: +5500
No: -8000 WIN
Which party will control the Senate after the voting of 11/8/16?
Democratic Party: -175
Republican Party: +150
Will any Presidential candidate attract over 50% of the popular vote?
Yes: +250
No: -425
Hillary Clinton electoral vote count will be:
Over 359.5: +220
Under 359.5: -300
Donald Trump electoral vote count will be:
Over 359.5: +1250
Under 359.5: -2500
Hillary Clinton electoral vote count will be:
Over 370.5: +2500
Under 370.5: -4200
Donald Trump electoral vote count will be:
Over 370.5: +1750
Under 370.5: -3000
Democrats to control House of Representatives, Senate and White House?
Yes: +700
No: -1250
Republicans to control House of Representatives, Senate and White House?
Yes: +300
No: -450
Will Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton concede the Presidential election by 12:01 AM on Wednesday, November 9?
Yes: +100
No: -120
Will Kellyanne Conway be Donald Trump’s campaign manager on November 7, 2016?
Yes: -1500
No: +950
Will Jennifer Palmieri be Hillary Clinton’s communications director on November 7, 2016?
Yes: -1400
No: +900
How many women will be in the President of the United States’ cabinet on March 31, 2017?
Over 7.5: +100
Under 7.5: -120
How many Federal deportations will there be in FY 2016?
Over 250,000: -450
Under 250,000: +300
Will Huma Abedin be Clinton Campaign Vice Chair on 11/7/16?
Yes: -750
No: +500
Will James Comey be FBI Director at 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/18?
Yes: +120
No: -150
Will James Comey resign as FBI Director before 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/17?
Yes: +225
No: -300
Will Janet Yellen be Federal Reserve Chair at 12:01 AM Eastern on 7/1/17?
Yes: -600
No: +450
Will the next President face Impeachment Charges from the Senate by 12:01 AM Eastern on 6/15/17?
Yes: +450
No: -600
Gary Johnson national vote share?
0 to 5%: -275
5% to 10%: +200
Over 10%: +2000
Will Donald Trump sever ties with the Republican Party before 12:01 AM Eastern on 12/1/16?
Yes: +450
No: -600
Will Donald Trump form a new political party before 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/17?
Yes: +900
No: -1500
Will Donald Trump form a new political party before 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/18?
Yes: +500
No: -750
Will Bernie Sanders form a new political party before 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/17?
Yes: +900
No: -1500
Will Bernie Sanders form a new political party before 12:01 AM Eastern on 1/1/18?
Yes: +450
No: -700
MEDIA POLLING PERCENTAGE SPECIALS
Hillary Clinton lead in Real Clear Politics average ‘two way’ poll against Donald Trump at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Over 3%: -115
Under 3% or Trump leads: -105 WIN
Hillary Clinton lead in Real Clear Politics average ‘four way’ poll against Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Over 3%: -120
Under 3% or Trump leads: +100 WIN
Who will be shown as Florida leader in Real Clear Politics average ‘two way’ poll between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Hillary Clinton: -105
Donald Trump: -115 WIN
Who will be shown as Florida leader in Real Clear Politics ‘four way’ poll between Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Hillary Clinton: -105
Donald Trump: -115 WIN
Hillary Clinton’s Poll Average at RealClearPolitics at 11:59 PM EDT on 10/3/16 will be:
OVER 43.1 -110 WIN
UNDER 43.1 -110
Donald Trump’s Poll Average at RealClearPolitics at 11:59 PM EDT on 10/3/16 will be:
OVER 41.5 -110
UNDER 41.5 -110 WIN
Will Donald Trump be shown as the leader in the Bloomberg Presidential Poll at 11:59 PM EDT on 10/3/16
YES -175 NO ACTION
NO +150 TIE
PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENT SPECIALS
Will Paul Ryan withdraw Trump endorsement?
Yes: +900
No: -1250
Will Ted Cruz withdraw Trump endorsement?
Yes: +950
No: -1500
Will Jeb Bush endorse Trump before Election Day?
Yes: +2500
No: -1750
Will John Kasich endorse Trump before Election Day?
Yes: +1500
No: -2100
VOTER TURNOUT SPECIALS
2016 Presidential Election Voter Turnout
66% or more: +750
62%–65.99%: +550
58%–61.99%: +275
54%–57.99%: +220
50%–53.99%: +350
49.99% or less: +450
2016 Presidential Election Voter Turnout
Over 51.7%: -110
Under 51.7%: -110
INDIVIDUAL STATE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SPECIALS
Which candidate will win Alabama’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -7500
Hillary Clinton: +2500
Which candidate will win Alaska’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -475
Hillary Clinton: +325
Which candidate will win Arizona’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -320
Hillary Clinton: +240
Which candidate will win Arkansas’ electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -4800
Hillary Clinton: +1600
Which candidate will win California’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1600
Hillary Clinton: -4800
Which candidate will win Colorado’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +280
Hillary Clinton: -400
Which candidate will win Connecticut’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1000
Hillary Clinton: -2000
Which candidate will win Delaware’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +750
Hillary Clinton: -1400
Which candidate will win the District of Columbia’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1600
Hillary Clinton: -4800
Which candidate will win Florida’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +120
Hillary Clinton: -150
Which candidate will win Georgia’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -550
Hillary Clinton: +375
Which candidate will win Hawaii’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1600
Hillary Clinton: -4800
Which candidate will win Idaho’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -4800
Hillary Clinton: +1600
Which candidate will win Illinois’ electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1600
Hillary Clinton: -4800
Which candidate will win Indiana’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -3500
Hillary Clinton: +1450
Which candidate will win Iowa’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -260
Hillary Clinton: +180
Which candidate will win Kansas’ electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -2600
Hillary Clinton: +1250
Which candidate will win Kentucky’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -7500
Hillary Clinton: +2500
Which candidate will win Louisiana’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -4800
Hillary Clinton: +1650
Which candidate will win Maine’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +350
Hillary Clinton: -525
Which candidate will win Maryland’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1250
Hillary Clinton: -2500
Which candidate will win Massachusetts’ electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1600
Hillary Clinton: -4800
Which candidate will win Michigan’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +325
Hillary Clinton: -475
Which candidate will win Minnesota’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +450
Hillary Clinton: -625
Which candidate will win Mississippi’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -4800
Hillary Clinton: +1600
Which candidate will win Missouri’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -2500
Hillary Clinton: +1250
Which candidate will win Montana’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -2500
Hillary Clinton: +1250
Which candidate will win Nebraska’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -3800
Hillary Clinton: +1575
Which candidate will win Nevada’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +325
Hillary Clinton: -450
Which candidate will win New Hampshire’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +225
Hillary Clinton: -275
Which candidate will win New Jersey’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1250
Hillary Clinton: -2500
Which candidate will win New Mexico’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +450
Hillary Clinton: -600
Which candidate will win New York’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1600
Hillary Clinton: -4800
Which candidate will win North Carolina’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -110
Hillary Clinton: -110
Which candidate will win North Dakota’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -3500
Hillary Clinton: +1550
Which candidate will win Ohio’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -250
Hillary Clinton: +175
Which candidate will win Oklahoma’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -4800
Hillary Clinton: +1600
Which candidate will win Oregon’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1250
Hillary Clinton: -2500
Which candidate will win Pennsylvania’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +300
Hillary Clinton: -450
Which candidate will win Rhode Island’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +900
Hillary Clinton: -1250
Which candidate will win South Carolina’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -2500
Hillary Clinton: +1250
Which candidate will win South Dakota’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -2500
Hillary Clinton: +1250
Which candidate will win Tennessee’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -7500
Hillary Clinton: +2500
Which candidate will win Texas’ electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -2500
Hillary Clinton: +1250
Which candidate will win Utah’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -350
Evan McMullin: +300
Hillary Clinton: +1500
Which candidate will win Vermont’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1250
Hillary Clinton: -2500
Which candidate will win Virginia’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +500
Hillary Clinton: -750
Which candidate will win Washington’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +1250
Hillary Clinton: -2500
Which candidate will win West Virginia’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: -7500
Hillary Clinton: +2500
Which candidate will win Wisconsin’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +450
Hillary Clinton: -600
Which candidate will win Wyoming’s electoral votes?
Donald Trump: +120
Hillary Clinton: -150
INDIVIDUAL STATE VOTING SPECIALS
Will Nevada voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Ballot Question #2)
Yes: -120
No: +100
Who will win the Nevada Senate race?
Joe Heck(Republican): +105
Catherine Cortez Masto(Democrat): -115
Presidential Election margin of victory in California?
Over 22%: -250
Under 22%: +175
Will California voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Proposition 64)
Yes: -250
No: +175
Will California voters approve the condoms in adult films ballot measure? (Proposition 60)
Yes: -110
No: -110
Who will win the vote for California’s open Senate seat vacated by Barbara Boxer?
Kamala Harris: -1950
Loretta Sanchez: +1700
Who will win the vote for California’s 49th Congressional District seat?
Darrell Issa(Republican): -120
Doug Applegate(Democrat): +100
Who will win the vote for Governor of North Carolina?
Pat McCrory(Republican): +175
Roy Cooper(Democrat): -250
Will Massachusetts voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Ballot Question #4)
Yes: -600
No: +450
Will Massachusetts voters approve the additional ‘slots only’ gambling ballot measure? (Ballot Question #1)
Yes: +150
No: -210
Will Massachusetts voters approve the charter school expansion ballot measure? (Ballot Question #2)
Yes: +120
No: -150
Will Massachusetts voters approve the small cage ban ballot measure? (Ballot Question #3)
Yes: -250
No: +210
Will Maine voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Ballot Question #1)
Yes: -300
No: +250
Will Arkansas voters approve the Arkansas Medical Cannabis Act? (Ballot Question #7)
Yes: +225
No: -300
Gary Johnson popular vote in New Mexico?
Over 9.9%: +120
Under 9.9% -150
Who will win the Illinois Senate race?
Mark Kirk (R): +2100
Tammy Duckworth (D): -3000
Who will win the Indiana Senate race?
Evan Bayh (D): +125
Todd Young (R): -175
Who will win the Utah Senate race?
Misty Snow (D): +600
Mike Lee (R): -750