Political Odds–Donald Trump Cabinet Appointment Proposition Odds
–Donald Trump’s first order of business: filling his cabinet.
– His unorthodox campaign and tenuous status with his own party make predictions more difficult.
– Political insiders expect some very interesting suggestions.
We’ll now go from the usual coterie of celebrity blowhards threatening to leave the country to betting odds on Trump’s cabinet choices.
The primary difficulty in setting odds on the cabinet is that no one *really* knows what Trump will do with these positions. Sure, the hysterics whining over his election seem to know that he’ll be driving over kittens with a steamroller on a daily basis but beyond this deluded group there is no certainty regarding anything about the Trump Presidency.
SELECTING THE CABINET
The only thing that Donald Trump has ever done to prepare him for putting together the staff to serve him during his Presidency is to open a new casino. Like a casino, the ‘head honcho’ finds the right people to oversee the various departments–gaming, hospitality, marketing, food & beverage–and then they’re in charged of filling out their subordinate staffers. The best estimate that I could find on Google suggests that The Mirage Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas has over 6,000 employees. Between now and January 20, 2017 the Trump White House will have to hire over 4,000 employees ranging from policy analysts to communications staffers to blackjack dealers administrative help.
The President does have a massive–though not particularly efficient–government personnel bureaucracy to assist him (or his ‘managers’) fill the necessary vacancies. Much of the initial hires, however, are the responsibility of the President-elect and top ‘transition team’ advisors. One major difference–it’s not quite as easy as hiring ‘the best candidate for the job’. One important consideration is what political wonks call ‘optics’. Basically, this means–as you’d expect–‘how things look’ and particularly to potential critics. If you’re hiring for a casino it doesn’t matter if your Food & Beverage Manager has a repellant personality or was once a member of an outlaw bike gang. If he’s good at his job he can get hired and if he performs in executing his responsibilities he’ll probably stay employed.
It’s more difficult putting together a cabinet because both critics and supporters have a tendency to read a lot into every appointment. The President has different constituencies to ‘reward’ for getting him elected. He also has an ethical minefield to traverse to avoid controversy and a potential ‘scandal’. Trump’s challenges in this area will be greater than most Presidents since it’s already apparent that his political enemies are going to blow anything they can find out of proportion. If Trump was rude to an African American busboy 10 years ago in a coffee shop when he was operating on little sleep his political adversaries will weave a narrative out of this that will end with Trump having a master plan to subjugate anyone darker than George Lopez.
TRUMP’S UNIQUE POSITION
Trump’s Presidency is unprecedented for a variety of reasons and this could potentially make things more or less difficult for him. On one hand, even his own party has reservations about him. On the other hand, he’s not beholden to the national GOP to the degree that most Presidents are. Despite everyone in the media weighing in giving their analysis on what he’ll do the reality is that no one has a clue.
That not only makes it difficult to handicap these props it makes it difficult to set them. This will be our first set of ‘Trump Cabinet Appointment’ specials with more to come!
DONALD TRUMP CABINET SPECIALS
SECRETARY OF STATE
Rudy Giuliani: +100
John Bolton: +150
Newt Gingrich: +350
Bob Corker: +400
Jeff Sessions: +500
Zalmay Khalilzad: +500
Ron Paul: +1200
Field: +1500
John Kerry: +6600
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Jeff Sessions: +100
Michael Flynn: +350
Field: +1000
Stephen Hadley: +1500
Duncan Hunter: +500
ATTORNEY GENERAL
Trey Gowdy: +150
Rudy Giuliani: +500
Field: +750
Chris Christie: +900
SECRETARY OF TREASURY
Steven Mnuchin: +120
Jeb Hensarling: +190
Field: +750
Jamie Diamon: +900
Lael Brainard: +1500
SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY
David Clarke: +100
Rudy Giuliani: +500
Chris Christie: +600
Field: +750
SECRETARY OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES
Ben Carson: -175
Field: +300
Newt Gingrich: +750
Betsy McCaughey: +900
Rick Scott: +1200
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
Chuck Conner: +250
Sam Brownback: +400
Field: +600
Bruce Rastetter: +750