Political Odds–Who Will The GOP Run If Trump Doesn’t?
Over the past couple of weeks there have been a number of reports–all speculation and/or from ‘unnamed sources’–that Donald Trump won’t be the Republican Party’s candidate for President. This talk heated up last week–a bad week for Trump in the media–and has continued steadily despite the fact that ‘The Donald’ appears to have both oars back in the water (relatively speaking). It might be ‘wishful thinking’ as well.
That being said, this has been one of the strangest Presidential campaigns in history and at this point *nothing* would surprise me. And in a volatile environment like that what better way to make sense of everything than to hang some betting odds on it:
DONALD TRUMP PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ODDS
In our previous article, we posted odds on Trump’s candidacy in general–will he run or won’t he?. The rules for this prop and odds are below:
Rules: Any wager contingent on Trump not running or not being the nominee will pay on an official announcement by the candidate or the Republican party. Presidential candidacy must be official with Trump listed on the ballot in at least 38 states. No write in campaigns.
WILL DONALD TRUMP BE A CANDIDATE IN THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
YES, THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE -1000
YES, A THIRD PARTY OR INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE +1500
NO, HE WON’T RUN AT ALL +750
YES, THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE -1000
YES, A THIRD PARTY OR INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE +1500
NO, HE WON’T RUN AT ALL +750
Were I hanging these odds today I’d probably tweak them slightly–maybe make the ‘Yes’ -1500, the ‘No’ +1000 and the ‘Yes but as a third party candidate’ +2100 or thereabouts. Until there’s something other than speculation/rumors/innuendo there’s no reason to think that Trump *won’t* be the nominee. The Republican Party brass might not like it but they don’t have many alternatives at this point, let alone viable alternatives. As we’ll see in the next set of odds there’s not exactly a great replacement candidate waiting in the wings.
WHO WILL BE THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IN THE 2016 ELECTION?
DONALD TRUMP -1500
PAUL RYAN +2000
JOHN KASICH +3000
MITT ROMNEY +5500
TED CRUZ +8500
JON HUNTSMAN +9500
OTHER +125000
This is how you’d have to set up a proposition bet about a potential Trump replacement. You can’t really bet on ‘Who Will Replace Trump?’ when he hasn’t dropped out yet. I guess you could do a bet where ‘all bets no action if Trump runs’ but that’s shabby bookmaking. I guess there are other ways to do it but this looks to be the cleanest. Quick witted people will realize that in light of the previous prop this is essentially a ‘parlay’. At least it is for every other candidate *except* Trump. If you think Trump will run and he does you’re a winner. That’s why he’s priced at -1500 here–that would be the same price as offered in the previous bet (at my ‘revised’ lines’).
For the other candidates you have to get two separate eventualities correct: Trump has to drop out AND the Candidate of your choice has to run. In reality, if Trump *doesn’t* run the odds that, say, Paul Ryan would might be much shorter. Since a winning bet has to nail two separate things correctly and Trump is such a big favorite to run these prices are fairly solid. I haven’t done the math to extrapolate each candidate as a straight bet into a parlay with ‘Trump Won’t Run’ or ‘Trump Will Run Third Party’ but for ‘entertainment purposes only’ I can live with these.
ANALYSIS
Starting at the bottom ‘Other’ is the least likely scenario. Were Trump *thinking* about dropping out one of the more opportunistic former candidates would likely already have the gig sewn up. If the GOP decided to make a play to push Trump out, they’d also have a replacement already set. It’s unlikely to be a case where Trump leaves and the GOP has to scramble to find a warm body to replace him.
Jon Huntsman is the former Governor of Utah. He’s too smart and too articulate to be a Presidential candidate in the current Republican party. He’s also a billionaire and has many better things to do than help clean up the national party’s mess and become the focal point of hatred for Trump’s minions. Huntsman said he wouldn’t run for the GOP nomination early on in the election cycle. After some hemming and hawing he tepidly endorsed Trump in the interest of ‘party unity’. Huntsman was well liked by his constituents as Utah’s governor and respected by his Democratic foes. He left office with an 80% approval rating. He didn’t get that by being stupid and clearly wants no part of this grease fire of a Presidential election. The only slight chance that he’d consider it is if he were asked by the party–he’s definitely loyal. The problem is that the national GOP party wouldn’t be smart enough to seek him out.
Ted Cruz is likely the most unctuous of the failed 2016 GOP candidates. His supporters like to say that he would be ‘great on the economy’ and he hates immigrants almost as much as Trump. He’s having to scrap for re-election to the Senate from his own state and when you’re too far right for the Lone Star State there’s a problem. Mitt Romney knows better to get involved with this mess. John Kasich is beloved by fundamentalist Christian kooks, has no charisma and most people wouldn’t recognize him if he walked through their front yard. He’s un-electable.
Every few years a young politician shows up in both parties who is supposed to represent the ‘future’ by offering a ‘young, fresh perspective’. The Democrats had John Edwards, the transparently smarmy twerp who fell from grace after being indicted on Federal campaign finance charges after attempting to cover up an extramarital affair. He managed to skate on these charges, likely because he’s got the same party affiliation as the current occupant of the White House.
Paul Ryan is that guy for the Republican. He still has all of his hair and passes as ‘handsome’ by the dubious standards of partisan politicians. He’s got strained relations with Trump which would likely be a plus for the national GOP. The problem is that he makes Dan Quayle look like the late William F. Buckley in the intellectual candlepower department. He gives off the vibe as one of the officers of the Delta House fraternity in ‘Animal House’ thinking that a smirk and rhetorical BS can make up for being what Dean Vernon Wormer described as ‘fat, drunk and stupid’. He might not be fat or drunk, and for some reason his supporters think he’s the future but he’s also unelectable.