Portland Timbers Heavily Favored in Match with Colorado
Who: Portland Timbers v. Colorado Rapids
When: Wednesday August 23rd, 2017 10:30PM EST
Where: Providence Park—Portland, Oregon
If there was ever a contrasting matchup of Western Conference MLS teams, Wednesday night’s meeting between Portland and Colorado in Oregon fits the bill. Colorado find themselves sitting in last place in the West and are currently sporting the lowest point tally in all of MLS (tied with 2 other teams). While a team’s total point tally may not exactly tell you how they are performing at the present moment in time, in Colorado’s case it does. The Rapids have not won a game since the 1st day of July, and have not exactly looked like a competent side. Putting that last statement perfectly into perspective was the lone goal that was scored to ensure their 1-0 loss this past Saturday.
That deciding goal did not come from a DC United boot, but rather from the foot of Rapids center-back, Jared Watts. While on own-goal, in and of itself, is never a good thing, the goal in question was about as bad as it gets. Not knowing where he was on the pitch, Watts turned around and fired a pass back to what he thought was his keeper. Unfortunately for him, the inaccurate pass skirted by a scrambling Tim Howard and rolled into the back of the net. That dismal display ended up sinking Colorado even further into the Western basement, and did a good job of making them look an incompetent side.
Portland, on paper, will be considered to be the stronger of the 2 sides, but they have not been able to manage 2 consecutive wins since the beginning stages of June. Still, they are far and away the superior side in this matchup, and will like their odds of adding another 3 points and moving into a tie atop the Western table. I think Portland are the better side in this matchup, and when you add in the fact that Providence Park is not friendly to visitors, it is looking to be all Timbers in this midweek matchup.
Match Overview and Analysis
For Portland (-190), they will look to use their attacking prowess to get on the board early. This has been something they have done to great effect in recent weeks, and has resulted in them slowly but surely climbing up the Western table.
Darlington Nagbe and Diego Valeri are projected to start in the middle and up top for the Timbers, and when you consider this information it should come as no surprise that we are expecting to see goals scored. The two have one of the best midfield-attack relationships in MLS, and can dice up opposing defenses with a single through ball. Add this to the fact that they both have plenty of attacking and support to their respective lefts and rights, and the Timbers are becoming an increasingly formidable force. The lone sore spot for the Timbers is that their defense is lacking at times. On many occasions this year, the Timbers would score 2 or 3 goals and their opponents would be able to do the exact same thing. Luckily, the Rapids are not exactly the biggest goal-scoring threat, so it should be smooth sailing for the men from Portland.
The Colorado Rapids (+475) will enter this match the same way they have entered most other matches this season, as underdogs. Having not won for almost 2 consecutive months, the Rapids really need to turn things around. Unfortunately for them, Providence Park is one of the least welcoming places in MLS, and is a pretty terrible place to be if you are in need of a bounce-back performance. On top of this, the Rapids will be playing under interim coach Steve Cooke, who will be at least temporarily taking the position of the now fired Pablo Mastroeni.
As much as I would like to give Colorado a chance in this match, I do not see them being able to earn even a single point. If you cannot defend and not score goals, winning (and even drawing) matches becomes an impossibility.
Betting Prediction
So long as the Portland (-190) moneyline stays better than -200, I feel comfortable telling you to really hammer down on it. Though the Timbers struggle to win back-to-back matches, they are not usually following up a win with a match against one of MLS’ worst teams. I am fully confident that the Timbers outmatch the Rapids in just about every area of the pitch, and will earn all 3 points as a result.
Being that the Rapids are not guaranteed to score goals, I would shy away from the over/under that is listed by Bovada, which is 2.5 goals (-130/+110). Instead, I would recommend that you take a look at the Timbers’ team over/under, which is listed at 1.5 goals (-165/+120). Though the odds for this over (-165) are a bit worse than the combined over (-130), I think it is more likely that the Timbers get 2 goals than it is both teams will combine for 3 or more. With that being said, the 2.5 goal over/under is not a bad bet, just not one I am wholly confident in.