Post Trump Inauguration Financial Market Performance Odds
–Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States on January 20, 2017
–There are a wide range of predictions of how financial markets will react–good, bad and indifferent
–’Gloom and doom’ predictions of financial market turmoil after Trump’s election were largely unfounded
Will it be ‘deja vu all over again‘? Prior to November’s Presidential Election there were countless ‘worst case scenario’ predictions of what would happen to financial markets and the broader economy should Donald Trump prevail. Spoiler alert–he did. Spoiler alert #2–the financial markets not only shrugged it off after some hysterical election night selling (and resulting dip in the futures market) for the most part they’ve been very strong since.
The lesson of the financial market behavior post election is more one of hubris than anything else. All of Wall Street had anticipated a Hillary Clinton victory and it had already been ‘priced in’ to the markets. With good reason–Hillary had been the anointed one among the big Wall Street investment and banking firms. They had given her money and provided their influence on her behalf in every way they could. When Trump emerged victorious, the didn’t have a contingency plan. That’s really inexcusable in their line of work and it prompted much of the panicked election night selling. As the various futures markets were dropping like a stone there were countless predictions of more ‘bloodletting’ the next day. It never happened. Wall Street quickly assimilated the new political reality and it’s been ‘business as usual’ ever since.
NOW THE ‘DOOMSAYERS’ ARE POINTING TO TRUMP’S INAUGURATION AS THE CATALYST FOR A HUGE MARKET SELLOFF
The financial market doomsayers are doubling down in advance of Trump’s nomination calling for the same type of ‘bloodletting’ they prophesized after the election. The problem is that many have let their personal dislike for Trump obfuscate the basics of market economics. There are other forces at play–the game is changing and the United States is not the only economic power in the world. Within the United States, the Federal government is losing legitimacy every day. Or as I put it in the post election recap of the financial market odds:
The bottom line–it doesn’t really matter who gets elected. The main thing that Wall Street hates is uncertainty and while they might feel personally burned should their financial investment in Clinton gets them nothing it’s just pocket change for them. Besides, they’ve got another analog era relic in Trump they can financially ‘encourage’ in their ultimately doomed effort to stem the tide of technology, freedom, peace and decentralization. It’ll be fun to watch as our war mongering, coercive and divisive government becomes less and less relevant.
This isn’t to suggest that the financial markets in the US and internationally will continue on a never ending upward trajectory. They don’t work that way and, besides, many of the same structural changes that are weakening the influence of war mongering countries like the US and their power mad governments are eroding the financial markets–specifically technology, freedom and decentralization. As far as the near term performance of the financial markets there’s no guarantee they’ll go up but there’s no guarantee they’ll go down–and certainly not because they’ve all of a sudden realized that Donald Trump will be the 45th President of the United States. You can make a case that the market is overbought at present and that could result in a market decline but that won’t have anything to do with a reaction to Trump’s inauguration.
Here’s another set of financial market performance odds evaluating what will happen immediately after Trump’s inaguration (January 20 and 21) and after a bit of time has passed (February 1):
POST INAUGURATION FINANCIAL MARKET PERFORMANCE BETTING ODDS
BITCOIN PRICES
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 1/21/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $810: -125
Under $810: +105
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 1/21/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $800: -150
Under $800: +130
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 1/21/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $700: -300
Under $700: +225
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 1/21/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $850: +130
Under $850: -150
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 1/21/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $900: +225
Under $900: -300
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 2/1/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $850: +225
Under $850: -175
The USD price of Bitcoin (BTC) at Coinbase on 2/1/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $1000: +800
Under $1000: -1100
GOLD PRICES
The USD price per ounce of gold at GoldPrice on 1/21/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $1200: -125
Under $1200: +105
The USD price per ounce of gold at GoldPrice on 1/21/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $1300: +120
Under $1300: -140
The USD price per ounce of gold at GoldPrice on 1/21/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $1150: 225
Under $1150: +170
The USD price per ounce of gold at GoldPrice on 2/1/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $1250: -150
Under $1250: +120
The USD price per ounce of gold at GoldPrice on 2/1/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern will be?
Over $1450: +375
Under $1450: -450
US STOCK EXCHANGES
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) close on 1/20/17 will be?
Over 20,000: +130
Under 20,000: -150
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) close on 1/20/17 will be?
Over 18,500: -130
Under 18,500: +110
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) close on 2/1/17 will be?
Over 20,000: +150
Under 20,000: -175
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) close on 1/20/17 will be?
Over 18,500: -110
Under 18,500: -110
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) close will be higher on which day?
January 20, 2017: -150
February 1, 2017: +130
The NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC) close on 1/20/17 will be?
Over 5500: -135
Under 5500: +115
The NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC) close on 1/20/17 will be?
Over 6000: +150
Under 6000: -170
The NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC) close on 2/1/17 will be?
Over 5500: -115
Under 5500: +105
The NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC) close on 2/1/17 will be?
Over 5000: -250
Under 5000: +210
The NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC) close on 2/1/17 will be?
Over 6000: +350
Under 6000: -475
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) close on 1/20/17 will be?
Over 2275: -130
Under 2275: +110
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) close on 2/1/17 will be?
Over 2275: -110
Under 2275: -110
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) close on 2/1/17 will be?
Over 2200: -180
Under 2200: +150
INTERNATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGES
The FTSE 100 (London) close on 1/20/17 will be?
Over 7300: -110
Under 7300: -110
The FTSE 100 (London) close on 2/1/17 will be?
Over 7300: +130
Under 7300: -150
The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TPX) close on 1/20/17 will be?
Over 1535: -130
Under 1535: +110
The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TPX) close on 2/1/17 will be?
Over 1535: -130
Under 1535: +110
The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index close on 1/20/17 will be?
Over 3125: -130
Under 3125: +110
The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index close on 2/1/17 will be?
Over 3125: -130
Under 3125: +110
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (Hang Seng) close on 1/20/17 will be?
Over 22750: -130
Under 22750: +110
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (Hang Seng) close on 2/1/17 will be?
Over 22750: -130
Under 22750: +110
INDIVIDUAL STOCK PRICES
Google (NASDAQ:GOOG–Alphabet Inc, Class C) closing stock price on 1/20/17 will be?
Over 805: -150
Under 805: +120
Exxon-Mobile (NYSE:XOM) closing stock price on 1/20/17 will be?
Over 86: -150
Under 86: +120
Apple (NASDAQ:APPL) closing stock price on 1/20/17 will be?
Over 117.50: 130
Under 117.50: +110
Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) closing stock price on 1/20/17 will be?
Over 124.50: -125
Under 124.50: +105
Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) closing stock price on 1/20/17 will be?
Over 230: -120
Under 230: +100