‘Project Runway’ Season 16 Episode 9 Betting Odds
–’Project Runway’ will feature a wide array of models this year ranging in size from 0 to 22.
–’Project Runway’ has already been renewed for two more seasons after this one.
–Episode 9 of ‘Project Runway’ Season 16 will air on October 12, 2017 at 8:00 PM Eastern on the Lifetime Network
Last week I suggested that Episode 7 of ‘Project Runway’ had what pro wrestling geeks call a ‘screwjob finish’. That was nothing. If you were able to watch Episode 8 of ‘Project Runway’ and understand what the hell is going on you’re a better reality TV viewer than I am.
When we last left our group of aspiring fashionistas Jim Ross…er…Tim Gund had booked a battle of twins to determine which one went home. In Episode 7, the Buitendorp Twins got a reprieve from eliminiation after they were booked to Instead of two designers being eliminated it turns out that *no* designers were eliminated. At least not yet. The Buitendorp Twins would have been sent packing were it not for an act of God…er…act of Heidi Klum who decreed that the two girls will go ‘mano a mano’. Translated–they the Episode 7 challenge and whoever has the best design will stay. Here’s what TV Line had to say about the prospect of the Buitendorp Twins going ‘mano a mano’.
Unfortunately, the judges couldn’t decide which twin to send home, prompting Heidi Klum to announce a do-over challenge — Claire and Shawn will each get one hour to design a new menswear-inspired look. (Wait, why did I say “unfortunately”? This is going to be amazing!)
AND THE WINNER IS…..
Alas, the anticipated ‘bloodbath’ didn’t transpire. Instead, Shawn forfeited giving Claire the challenge victory. TV Line does a great job covering reality TV so I’ll let them fill in the blanks here:
But after 15 minutes, Shawn’s mannequin remained bare, while Claire had actually gotten pretty far along in her design. You could feel the meltdown coming on even before Shawn broke down in tears in the middle of the workroom. Then, she called for Tim Gunn.
“This is something that tears at me,” she began. “I think it’s Claire that needs to stay. I already know that it’s her. I want to give her the credit that she is due. I want her to continue in my stead.”
That’s right, fellow Runway junkies, Shawn chose to sacrifice herself for the good of her sister. (To be fair, though, was it really a sacrifice? I mean, it was pretty clear that she wasn’t going to whip up anything worthwhile, so she was basically just sparing herself the humiliation of a formal judgment.)
And then damn near everyone involved with the show starts crying. Seriously. Here’s how EW Online described the carnage:
After bursting into tears, she asks for Tim. Her mentor asks what’s going on, and Shawn says her sister deserves to stay: “I want her to continue in my stead.” Then Claire starts crying, too.
The three of them trek down to the runway to tell the judges the twins’ decision. Then Tim starts crying, too. He lets the judges know what they’ve decided. Heidi asks Claire if she’s okay with that, and she says, “It’s a very hard place to be in.” Guest judge Asia Kate says that when you love someone, you can let them go and then starts crying, too! (It’s a sobfest, but I have pretty dry eyes over here — am I a monster?)
So that’s that right? Shawn goes and Claire stays. Not so fast–the mayhem is just getting started!
CLASSIC PRO WRESTLING BOOKING!
Now answer this question–what would be the biggest ‘swerve’ possible now that Claire Buitendorp is riding solo? How about one of the best and most surprising ‘babyface turns’ since Dusty Rhodes got fed up with ‘Playboy’ Gary Hart and Pak Song in Florida circa 1974. He transformed from one of the most hated ‘heels’ in pro wrestling into ‘The American Dream’ and went on to become a legend. OK, maybe this isn’t quite as epic but it is somewhat surprising.
Yep, you guessed it–the bookers…er…producers of ‘Project Runway’ have found a way to make Claire Buitendorp a sympathetic figure. Here’s how it went down–spoiler alert: Claire wins the Episode 8 challenge designing a print for the ‘woman on the go’ that will also end up as a design on a Dixie Cup (seriously). Then all hell breaks loose. Margarita Alverez starts crying purportedly due to her shabby design. Later, she cryptically explains that there was ‘a distraction in the workroom’. Asked to elaborate she asserts that: “I wasn’t raised to throw people under the bus.” Clearly, her definition of ‘not throwing someone under the bus’ is different from most people since she’d spent much of the episode complaining about Claire alternately insinuating that she was a) cheating by having ‘pants in the bathroom’, b) copying her design and c) having ‘measuring tape in her room’. Margarita’s storyline is that she was so freaked out by Claire’s actions (whatever they might be) that it ‘threw her off her game’ and she turned in a shabby design.
The drama continues after Claire is announced as the winner and Michael Brambila storms off the stage. Here’s how EW Online called the action:
When the designers get back on the runway after judges’ deliberations, Heidi announces Claire as winner. Next thing you know, Michael is walking off the runway. He tells a crew member backstage, “I came to play fair and there’s no fairness in this game.”
Tim comes over completely baffled and Michael reiterates, cryptically, that this winning look lacks fairness. On the runway, Heidi is begging the designers to tell her what’s going on, and all Margarita will say is “None of us want to point fingers.”
I don’t think you need drama on Project Runway for it to be good — I’m a firm believer that good designs from good designers are entertainment enough. But, guys, this is getting good. See you back here next week, when Pants-in-the-Bathroom-Gate resumes.
And here’s TVLine.com’s take. As you can see, much is left open to interpretation:
In an even more dramatic twist, Michael reacted to Claire’s win by storming off the stage in a huff. “I came to play fair, and there’s no fairness in this game,” Michael told some guy backstage before fake-apologizing to Tim Gunn for making a scene. Per his confessional earlier in the episode, Michael was “annoyed” by Claire’s “original” pants because he thought they were too similar to a pair she already had in her room.)
The question is: Like Margarita’s paranoia about Claire copying her top, is Michael’s complaint also much ado about nothing? Or does Claire deserve some sort of punishment?
WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON HERE?
Claire is being given a ‘babyface turn’ while Michael and Margarita are undergoing a ‘heel turn’. At least that’s what I took away from the show as did quite a few other viewers. Here’s some random reaction from the Project Runway Reddit:
–Margarita didn’t keep her story straight:
I can’t recall, but which finished piece made by Claire copied off of Margarita?
I just watched the episode and I thought Margarita’s gripe was that Claire’s initial vision (for her top) resembled hers, but then she went in another direction.
–It was ‘sour grapes’ and/or a vendetta against Claire but Margarita and Michael come off looking bad:
I think it was really sketchy that no one said anything about this “cheating” until Margarita decided to throw a fit. Michael was way to ok to jump on her bandwagon too. No one was having an issue until Claire started becoming competition. And there is a pattern here with Margarita. When she does things well, she is so proud of her hard work and her struggles blah blah blah. However; when she does a look that is not nearly as good as someone else’s, she blames other people or circumstances for her problems. When her scary hip hip model look was on the bottom it was “the model wanted this and that and it’s her fault”. Now she has another low look and it is Claire’s fault. She needs to grow up. If she spent half as much time or her look as she did making sure EVERYONE in the work room knew Claire’s template was “totally stealing her look”, maybe she wouldn’t have been on the bottom. I am also really disappointed in Michael, Kenya, and the “brothers” for how they were treating Claire this episode. Grow up people. By no means did I like “the twins” as an entity on the show, but what a lot of people are not realizing is that Claire is struggling because this is probably her first time away from her sister. And they aren’t just sisters, they’re twins. That is a bond no one else there is going to understand. (IMO Project Runway never should have had twins on for that reason but that’s another story). Claire had a target on her back at the beginning of the episode and it just showed everyone’s true colors. We are past October 3rd, so stop being mean girls.
–More ‘sour grapes’:
I like Margarita and somewhat like Mike, but I don’t think they should be AS sour as they are. It was kind of a cheap win for Claire because I can get that look in a department store, but they could have done the same thing. I hope somehow Mike ends up going home because Margarita is too talented to go home now. Basically, high emotions on the line for $25k, but I don’t know why Margarita/Mike would be upset if they were never going to win it. I think the Indian wedding dress got robbed.
–Margarita is ‘loathsome’:
I had issues with Margarita prior to this, but now I really find her loathsome. And Michael got totally played by her. Here is what I saw: a mean girl who decided to talk shit about someone when she was feeling insecure about her own abilities. The allegations that she’s measuring her own clothes — so what? This is illegal now? Michael’s assertion that he knows for a fact that Claire has pants exactly like that in her own closet? Either they are basic pants that are unworthy of consideration in a design competition, or they are some magical item of clothing that Claire copied to win. You can’t have it both ways, as Margarita and Michael appear to be. And I honestly don’t believe Margarita’s assertions that Claire is hiding a measuring tape or what have you. Her running off stage to find him was, to me, a realization that she said something stupid — possibly made up — and she was about to get caught.
This isn’t to say that Margarita doesn’t have her supporters. There have been several back and forth revisions on the ‘Project Runway Season 16 Wikipedia page‘ targeting the ‘Designer Progress’ table. Here’s the accurate version through the end of Episode 8:
Someone–obviously a ‘pro-Margarita’ presence–has changed Claire’s Week 8 ‘Win’ to ‘DQ’ at least two times this evening. Both times it quickly gets corrected, either by a member of ‘Team Claire’ or someone who doesn’t want the good name of ‘Project Runway’ sullied by ‘fake news’.
SEASON 16 ‘TO WIN’ ODDS UPDATED
This all makes for great television but not for great oddsmaking. Typically, once you have the initial prices set reality shows are fairly easy to keep updated. In most cases, you know there will be one elimination per week after which you’ll reprice everything. Once a ‘balance of power’ is set it becomes even easier. There might be an upset at the end (eg: ‘Big Brother’ this season) but once a clear favorite emerges everything else falls into place.
I have no clue what to make of this mess. As I noted last week, I’ve repriced Kentaro Kameyama. In the last five weeks he’s got a win, a second place finish and two third place finishes. You can make a strong argument that he should have won Week 8’s challenge but it ‘made for better TV’ to have Claire win. At the other extreme, Margarita might be imploding. In addition to her ‘Claire is cheating for reasons’ antics outlined above she’s got a bottom 3 and a bottom 2 in the last three weeks. That is mitigated by the fact that she won the Week 7 challenge. To be fair, there was a strong sentiment that the entry of Bradnon and Kentaro should have won (it was teams week). Regardless of the veracity of her claims against Claire B she doesn’t seem to have her ‘head in the game’ and that’s not going to work as the field of competitors gets smaller.
As was the case last week, there are only two designers not named ‘Buitendorp’ with more than one ‘Low’ finish. That’s Kenya Freeman and Amy Bond. Bond doesn’t have any ‘High’ finishes so I’m making her the top choice to be eliminated in Episode 9. Freeman is incredibly tough to figure. Her two lows should put her at risk for elimination but there’s a problem with that–her five ‘High’ top 3 finishes is tied with Brandon Kee for most among contestants (2 wins, one runner up, two top three finishes). My gut instinct tells me that Freeman’s inconsistency of late is a bad thing. She’s clearly got some design chops but with the field getting smaller so too does the margin for error. She did finish top three in Week 8. Interesting to note that she has two second place finishes and three top three but has yet to win a challenge.
The biggest question mark heading into Episode 9 is obviously Claire Buitendorp. She pulled out the ‘win’ in the first challenge without her sister. Then again, at least two contestants have taken issue with her tactics (right or wrong). Will she get DQ’d this week? If she doesn’t, she’s got to be considered as at least a second tier contender. If you consider nothing but the entertainment value of her presence there’s no reason to get her out of the shadow of her sister and immediately send her packing. Her performance sans Shawn is now one of the potentially most entertaining storylines of the second half of the season. From a pro wrestling booking standpoint, it doesn’t appear wise to ‘job her out’ now.
Like last week, I’ve got two ‘next to be eliminated’ markets–one with Claire and one without. Here’s the updated odds to win Season 16 of ‘Project Runway’ along with the odds for Episode 9:
PROJECT RUNWAY SEASON 16 BETTING ODDS
TO WIN SEASON 16 OF ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’
Brandon Kee: +200
Ayana Ife: +450
Kentaro Kameyama: +500
Margarita Alverez: +600
Kenya Freeman: +700
Claire Buitendorp: +1000
Batani-Khalfani: +1000
Michael Brambila: +2500
Amy Bond: +3500
PROJECT RUNWAY SEASON 16 EPISODE 9 PROPOSITION BETTING ODDS
TO BE ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 9 ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’ SEASON 16
Amy Bond: +135
Michael Brambila: +350
Claire Buitendorp: +500
No One Eliminated in Episode 9: +750
Margarita Alvarez: +1250
Batani-Khalfani: +1500
Kentaro Kameyama: +1750
Kenya Freeman: +1750
Ayana Ife: +2500
Brandon Kee: +2500
TO BE ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 9 ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’ SEASON 16 (NOT INCLUDING CLAIRE BUITENDORP)
Amy Bond: +125
Michael Brambila: +200
No One Eliminated in Episode 9: +550
Margarita Alvarez: +1250
Batani-Khalfani: +1500
Kentaro Kameyama: +1750
Kenya Freeman: +1750
Ayana Ife: +2500
Brandon Kee: +2500
If no designer is eliminated other than Claire Buitendorp the bet will be graded ‘No One Eliminated in Episode 9’.
TO FINISH BOTTOM TWO BUT SAFE EPISODE 9 ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’ SEASON 16
Michael Brambila: +250
Amy Bond: +300
Claire Buitendorp: +450
Margarita Alvarez: +450
Batani-Khalfani: +950
Kentaro Kameyama: +1150
Kenya Freeman: +1500
Ayana Ife: +1750
Brandon Kee: +1750
No One Bottom Two but Safe in Episode 9: +2500
TO WIN CHALLENGE IN EPISODE 9 ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’ SEASON 16
Brandon Kee: +200
Kentaro Kameyama: +350
Ayana Ife: +500
Claire Buitendorp: +500
Kenya Freeman: +750
Margarita Alverez: +1150
Batani-Khalfani: +1250
No One Wins Episode 9 Challenge: +2500
Michael Brambila: +3500
Amy Bond: +3500
TO FINISH SECOND IN CHALLENGE IN EPISODE 9 ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’ SEASON 16
Kentaro Kameyama: +350
Ayana Ife: +350
Kenya Freeman: +500
Brandon Kee: +650
Claire Buitendorp: +650
Batani-Khalfani: +700
Margarita Alverez: +750
Michael Brambila: +1750
Amy Bond: +2500
No One Finishes Second in Episode 9 Challenge: +2500
WILL ANY DESIGNER BE DISQUALIFIED IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: +130
No: -150
NUMBER OF DESIGNERS ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 9?
Over 1.5: +300
Under 1.5: -350
WILL TIM GUNN USE HIS SAVE IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: +180
No: -210
WILL TIM GUNN SAY ‘GATHER ROUND’ IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: -250
No: +210
WILL TIM GUNN SAY THE WORD ‘FABULOUS’ IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: -250
No: +210
WILL TIM GUNN SAY THAT HE’LL ‘MISS’ ANY ELIMINATED DESIGNER?
Yes: +130
No: -150
WILL TIM GUNN USE THE EXPRESSION ‘LOT OF LOOK’ IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: +180
No: -210
WILL TIM GUNN SAY THAT HE IS ‘WORRIED’ OR ‘CONCERNED’ ABOUT A DESIGN IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: -150
No: +130
WHO WILL BE ELIMINATED FIRST?
Claire Buitendorp: +130
Michael Brambilia: -150
WILL ANY JUDGE ASK ‘WHERE IS SHE GOING’ OR ‘WHERE IS SHE GOING IN THIS OUTFIT’ IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: -170
No: +150
WILL ANY JUDGE SAY THAT A DESIGN ‘LOOKS EXPENSIVE’ IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: -150
No: +130
WILL ANY JUDGE SAY ‘I WOULD WEAR THAT’ IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: -150
No: +130
WILL ANY JUDGE SAY ANYTHING QUESTIONING ‘WHO SOMEONE IS AS A DESIGNER’ IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: -150
No: +130
WILL ANY CONTESTANT SAY ‘THIS IS A COMPETITION’ IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: -350
No: +300
WILL ANY CONTESTANT USE THE EXPRESSION ‘WHO I AM AS A DESIGNER’ IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: +110
No: -130
WILL ANYONE ON THE SHOW USE THE EXPRESSION ‘MAKE IT WORK’ IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: -350
No: +300
WILL ANYONE ON THE SHOW USE THE EXPRESSION ‘PROJECT SEAMSTRESS’ IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: +210
No: -250
WILL ANYONE ON THE SHOW SAY THE WORD ‘MATRONLY’ IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: +130
No: -150
WILL ANYONE ON THE SHOW USE THE TERM ‘MALL CLOTHES’ OR OTHERWISE SUGGEST THAT AN OUTFIT LOOKS LIKE IT CAME FROM THE MALL IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: +130
No: -150
WILL ANY DESIGNER SUFFER AN INJURY IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: +600
No: -750
WILL ANY DESIGNER CRY ON CAMERA IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: -300
No: +250
WILL TIM GUND CRY ON CAMERA IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: +150
No: -170
WILL ANY JUDGE CRY ON CAMERA IN EPISODE 9?
Yes: +180
No: -210
KEY DEMO RATING FOR EPISODE 9 AS REPORTED BY ‘TV BY THE NUMBERS‘?
Over 0.45: -150
Under 0.45: +130
TOTAL VIEWERSHIP FOR EPISODE 9 AS REPORTED BY ‘TV BY THE NUMBERS‘?
Over 1.75 million: -150
Under 1.75 million: +130