RuPaul’s Drag Race Season Nine Betting Odds
–RuPaul became a media sensation in the mid 1990s with the hit song ‘Supermodel’.
– Since then RuPaul has become a fixture in American popular culture.
– Now in it’s 9th season, ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’ is the highest rated show on the Logo TV network.
If you’ve been with us for a while now you’ll have noticed that every few weeks I’ll confidently proclaim that the topic du jour is ‘the strangest thing I’ve ever set odds on’. This might qualify as the strangest thing I’ve ever set odds on–but probably not for the reason you think.
‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’ is a reality show featuring drag queens. That I can handle. Setting odds on reality television is typically very easy regardless of the specifics of the show. No matter the show, no matter the country I start setting odds on reality shows by doing research of the media coverage and previews. Once I get a handle on what the show is about I move on to the hardcore fans–every reality show has websites and forums where serious fans gather to handicap the event and share theories. Even the most obscure reality show has a few and any major network show has a bunch. Such is the case with ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’ so there’s plenty of information to work with as I set numbers on the show.
What’s strange about ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’ is the downright incomprehensible rules. We’ll get to that in a moment but first some background on the show’s namesake. RuPaul became the ‘King of Drag Queens’ much in the same way that Jerry Lawler was the ‘King of Memphis Wrestling‘ in the mid 1990’s. Thanks to a massive hit song called ‘Supermodel (You Better Work)‘ RuPaul became huge. The song may have given RuPaul–real name RuPaul Andre Charles–the opportunity but he definitely made the most of it. He was not only a great entertainer in drag but he was an interesting and likable presence as a man. One of the most likable things about RuPaul is his mellow attitude toward gender pronouns, which have become a cause celebre among the perpetually offended in the past few years. Here’s RuPaul’s take:
“You can call me he. You can call me she. You can call me Regis and Kathie Lee; I don’t care! Just as long as you call me.”
He’s clearly comfortable in both gender roles and has appeared in movies and in other media both as a man and a woman. That’s also the case in this series.
YOU CAN’T TELL THE PLAYERS OR THE RULES WITHOUT A SCORECARD
The ‘elevator pitch’ for the show is simple enough–RuPaul hosts a series featuring a variety of talent competitions in a search for ‘America’s next drag superstar’. It might not get the mainstream coverage of ‘Dancing With the Stars’ but has been a hit on its own terms. In it’s ninth season it’s the highest rated show in the history of the Logo TV network, has spawned several spin-offs and airs internationally. RuPaul has won an Emmy for his hosting performance and the show has a devoted fanbase that rivals many more ‘mainstream’ reality shows.
The rules are entertaining, but don’t do any favors for oddsmaking. Here’s an excerpt from the ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’ Wikipedia page that explain things better than I could:
RuPaul plays dual roles in the show. USA Today’s Lifeline explains: “RuPaul the drag queen will be the final word in judging and eliminations, while RuPaul the man will offer guidance to contestants for each challenge.”RuPaul’s Drag Race uses progressive elimination to reduce the number of drag queens in the competition from the initial field of fourteen contestants (the maximum a season has started with) down to the final three, who will compete in the final challenge. Each episode (with the exception of the casting special, “recap” episode, and reunion special) follows a format consisting of a mini challenge, a main challenge, a runway walk (where the contestants model fashion on a runway, usually with a theme based on the main challenge), the judging panel, and the elimination of a contestant. There have been some exceptions to episodes, including double-elimination episodes, no-elimination episodes, and the disqualification of contestants.
Mini challenges:
In the mini challenge, each contestant is asked to perform a different task with varying requirements and time limitations. Certain mini challenges are repeated from season to season. For instance, the first mini challenge of the first six seasons is a photo shoot with the photographer Mike Ruiz that includes some kind of special twist (such as being doused with water while in full drag, having a high-powered fan turned on during the shoot, or being photographed while jumping on a trampoline). Another recurring mini challenge is dedicated to “reading,” a drag term for making insulting observations about one’s peers for comedic effect. The winner of a mini challenge is sometimes rewarded with some kind of advantage in the main challenge. Though most episodes have a mini challenge, select episodes do not and progress straight to the main challenge.
Main challenges:
The requirements of the main challenge vary across each episode, and can be individual or group challenges. The winner of the main challenge also receives a “special” prize for their win. In the past, challenge winners have been rewarded with prizes including custom designer clothing, vacations, cruises, and quality cosmetic items. The final main challenge of every season is where the contestants star in RuPaul’s music video.
The goal of each main challenge involves a new theme and outcome. Contestants are often asked to design and construct a custom outfit, sometimes incorporating unconventional materials. Other challenges focus on the contestants’ ability to present themselves on camera, perform with music, or perform humorously. Some challenges become a tradition across seasons.
Got that? Last week’s main challenge was to ‘Compete in a cheerleading battle’. Also adding to the oddsmaking degree of difficulty–the show doesn’t just eliminate contestants it ranks contestants. In other words, 14th place was determined on last week’s show via elimination. The queen eliminated on next week’s show will finish in 13th place, so on and so forth. In light of this, I decided to do a betting market for each finish position and this was a tricky process. Technically, these odds will change after each elimination but to maintain my sanity I’ll update these odds every few weeks or at the very least midseason.
RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE SEASON NINE BETTING ODDS
To win Season 9 of ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’
Aja: +300
Sasha Velour: +450
Shea Coulee: +500
Nina BoNina Brown: +750
Valentina: +900
Farrah Moan: +2500
Charlie Hides: +2500
Alexis Michelle: +3500
Peppermint: +3500
Trinity Taylor: +5000
Eureka: +5000
Cynthia Lee Fontaine: +7500
Kimora Blac: +7500
To finish 2nd on Season 9 of ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’
Aja: +200
Sasha Velour: +300
Shea Coulee: +450
Nina BoNina Brown: +750
Valentina: +1150
Farrah Moan: +1750
Eureka: +2500
Trinity Taylor: +2500
Kimora Blac: +2500
Alexis Michelle: +3500
Charlie Hides: +3500
Peppermint: +5000
Cynthia Lee Fontaine: +5000
To finish 3rd on Season 9 of ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’
Valentina: +350
Shea Coulee: +350
Aja: +350
Sasha Velour: +750
Nina BoNina Brown: +950
Alexis Michelle: +1200
Trinity Taylor: +1200
Farrah Moan: +1500
Eureka: +2500
Kimora Blac: +2500
Charlie Hides: +3500
Peppermint: +3500
Cynthia Lee Fontaine: +3500
To finish 4th on Season 9 of ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’
Alexis Michelle: +300
Farrah Moan: +450
Peppermint: +550
Valentina: +550
Nina BoNina Brown: +550
Eureka: +1250
Sasha Velour: +1250
Kimora Blac: +2000
Trinity Taylor: +2000
Aja: +2500
Charlie Hides: +2500
Shea Coulee: +5000
Cynthia Lee Fontaine: +5000
To finish 5th on Season 9 of ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’
Valentina: +350
Charlie Hides: +450
Farrah Moan: +750
Peppermint: +750
Shea Coulee: +750
Nina BoNina Brown: +750
Eureka: +950
Sasha Velour: +950
Kimora Blac: +1500
Trinity Taylor: +1500
Aja: +2500
Alexis Michelle: +3500
Cynthia Lee Fontaine: +5000
To finish 6th on Season 9 of ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’
Nina BoNina Brown: +350
Kimora Blac: +500
Valentina: +750
Eureka: +750
Shea Coulee: +750
Peppermint: +950
Aja: +950
Trinity Taylor: +1250
Cynthia Lee Fontaine: +1250
Charlie Hides: +1250
Farrah Moan: +2500
Sasha Velour: +2500
Alexis Michelle: +5000
To finish 7th on Season 9 of ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’
Eureka: +350
Farrah Moan: +550
Trinity Taylor: +550
Alexis Michelle: +550
Peppermint: +750
Aja: +750
Kimora Blac: +1250
Valentina: +1250
Nina BoNina Brown: +2150
Shea Coulee: +2750
Charlie Hides: +3500
Sasha Velour: +3500
Cynthia Lee Fontaine: +5000
To finish 8th on Season 9 of ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’
Charlie Hides: +250
Alexis Michelle: +450
Farrah Moan: +450
Trinity Taylor: +750
Eureka: +750
Kimora Blac: +1150
Sasha Velour: +1150
Aja: +1750
Valentina: +1750
Peppermint: +2500
Cynthia Lee Fontaine: +2500
Shea Coulee: +5000
Nina BoNina Brown: +5000
To finish 9th on Season 9 of ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’
Eureka: +400
Alexis Michelle: +400
Trinity Taylor: +550
Kimora Blac: +550
Nina BoNina Brown: +750
Charlie Hides: +750
Peppermint: +1250
Aja: +1250
Farrah Moan: +2500
Valentina: +2500
Shea Coulee: +3500
Sasha Velour: +3500
Cynthia Lee Fontaine: +3500
To finish 10th on Season 9 of ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’
Trinity Taylor: +300
Alexis Michelle: +450
Farrah Moan: +450
Eureka: +650
Kimora Blac: +650
Charlie Hides: +1150
Peppermint: +1150
Nina BoNina Brown: +1650
Shea Coulee: +1650
Sasha Velour: +3500
Aja: +3500
Valentina: +5000
Cynthia Lee Fontaine: +5000
To finish 11th on Season 9 of ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’
Farrah Moan: +450
Charlie Hides: +450
Peppermint: +450
Eureka: +450
Trinity Taylor: +450
Kimora Blac: +1250
Cynthia Lee Fontaine: +1250
Nina BoNina Brown: +1250
Sasha Velour: +3500
Alexis Michelle: +3500
Aja: +3500
Valentina: +4500
Shea Coulee: +4500
To finish 12th on Season 9 of ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’
Kimora Blac: +450
Charlie Hides: +450
Peppermint: +450
Trinity Taylor: +650
Alexis Michelle: +950
Farrah Moan: +950
Shea Coulee: +950
Eureka: +1150
Aja: +1150
Nina BoNina Brown: +2500
Sasha Velour: +2500
Valentina: +4000
Cynthia Lee Fontaine: +4000
To finish 13th on Season 9 of ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’
Kimora Blac: +350
Charlie Hides: +350
Peppermint: +450
Trinity Taylor: +750
Eureka: +750
Valentina: +950
Alexis Michelle: +950
Farrah Moan: +1750
Shea Coulee: +1750
Aja: +3500
Nina BoNina Brown: +3500
Sasha Velour: +4500
Cynthia Lee Fontaine: +4500