‘So You Think You Can Dance’ Season 14 Week 11 Betting Odds
–This is the 14th season for Fox TVs ‘So You Think You Can Dance’.
–Episode 11 of ‘So You Think You Can Dance’ will air live on Monday, August 28 at 8 PM Eastern.
–Vanessa Hudgens will join Nigel Lythgoe and Mary Murphy as judges.
One of the prerequisites for being a successful handicapper or oddsmaker is understanding the ‘public perception’ of a game or event. Once you understand the ‘vox populi‘ what you do with it is determined by your role in the sports betting ecosystem. A handicapper would look to fade the public. Over the long term, being a contrarian is one of the best ways to stay ‘in the black’. As Oscar Wilde famously quipped in The Importance of Being Earnest “everything popular is wrong”. I’ve been involved in sports betting since before I could buy a cocktail legally and I’ve been fortunate to know many successful bettors and handicappers. I can’t think of one that usually ended up on the same side as the ‘public’. On the other hand, the biggest flameouts I’ve seen–guys that burn through a bankroll in record time–more often than not backed the ‘chalk’. To get even more specific, the most brutal flameouts happened to guys that were laying big moneyline and runline prices with top tier starters in Major League Baseball.
The job of the oddsmaker is to reflect the public perception in his betting numbers. There’s a misconception that the oddsmaker is trying to ‘predict the outcome of the event’ or to ‘pick a winner’. His primary job is to generate two way action and (hopefully) end up with a ‘balanced book’ that has equal liability on both sides in a binary outcome event or on all of the betting interests in a futures market. Obviously there is some qualitative assessment of the betting proposition and some bookmakers will go beyond that and try to attract a certain position with the price they offer. The general idea is to do this in specific areas of expertise because randomly and frequently getting yourself into a position where you ‘need a side’ is dangerous. The point is that when you see a betting interest that the ‘public’ doesn’t like getting respect from the bookmaker it’s a good idea to pay attention.
EVERYTHING POPULAR IS WRONG
I think I’m pretty good at measuring the ‘public perception’ at this point in my career but that doesn’t mean that this perception frequently leaves me perplexed. The relatively tepid audience response to ‘So You Think You Can Dance’ is the latest example. I’ll preface this by saying that I’m not a ‘dance aficionado’ or anything of the sort. I started watching ‘So You Think You Can Dance’ to set odds on it but the show has really grown on me. It’s legit entertaining, highly competitive and involves serious talent. What I find hard to understand is the show’s position in third place in the timeslot behind ‘American Ninja Warrior’ on NBC and the unctuous ‘Bachelor in Paradise’ on ABC. I get that the network TV audience has changed drastically over the past decade plus due to the ‘Digital Revolution’ and networks now consider anything that does over a million viewers in prime time a huge success. To understand how much the world has changed keep in mind that in the 1980’s the top rated shows like ‘Dallas’ did well over 25 million viewers per week. I understand that network programming has become a ‘lowest common denominator’ aggregation tool. ‘SYTYCD’ isn’t Shakespeare but it’s pretty entertaining.
This is a good segue-way to our analysis and particularly the new favorite I’ve set. Kaylee Millis is now my choice to win ‘SYTYCD’. She’s a damn good dancer and I’ve always been a sucker for blue hair but her ‘edge’ over the rest of the field is that she stands out. She’s unmistakable because she’s not the prototypical dancer–tall, willowy, ethereal….you know the drill. Now, I’m not going to suggest that a white girl with blue hair from Weymouth, Massachusetts represents ‘diversity’ but unlike the rest of the field she’s not ‘interchangeable’. That’s not a rap on the other contestants, but the rest of the field is more typical of the physical makeup and skill set associated with good dancers. Uniqueness is a virtue and particularly in this context where part of your job is to make yourself ‘memorable’. The most frequent critique of Millis is that it’s evident she’s ‘working’ when she dances. In my view, the fact that it doesn’t look completely effortless like it does for so many other dancers is a ‘feature not a bug‘.
Here’s the updated odds to win Season 14 and the Episode 11 proposition bets:
‘SO YOU THINK YOU CAN DANCE’ (SYTYCD) SEASON 14 BETTING ODDS
TO WIN ‘SO YOU THINK YOU CAN DANCE’ SEASON 14
Kaylee Millis: +250
Lex Ishimoto: +350
Koine Iwasaki: +435
Kiki Nyemchek: +600
Taylor Sieve: +750
Mark Villaver: +900
Dassy Lee: +900
Logan Hernandez: +900
‘SO YOU THINK YOU CAN DANCE’ (SYTYCD) SEASON 14 EPISODE 11 BETTING ODDS
TO BE ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 11
Dassy Lee: +350
Mark Villaver: +350
Logan Hernandez: +350
No One Eliminated: +500
Taylor Sieve: +750
Kiki Nyemchek: +900
Kaylee Millis: +1250
Lex Ishimoto: +1500
Koine Iwasaki: +1500
TO BE IN THE BOTTOM BUT SAFE IN EPISODE 11
Mark Villaver: +300
Logan Hernandez: +300
No One Safe: +450
Dassy Lee: +750
Taylor Sieve: +750
Kiki Nyemchek: +950
Kaylee Millis: +950
Lex Ishimoto: +1250
Koine Iwasaki: +1250
WILL JUDGE VANESSA HUDGENS GIVE A STANDING OVATION?
Yes: -350
No: +300
WILL JUDGE MARY MURPHY GIVE A STANDING OVATION?
Yes: -350
No: +300
WILL JUDGE NIGEL LYTHGOE GIVE A STANDING OVATION?
Yes: -350
No: +300
WILL VANESSA HUDGINS SAY ‘SHINE’ OR ‘SHINING’ AT ANY POINT DURING EPISODE 11?
Yes: -225
No: +195
WILL JUDGE MARY MURPHY SCREAM AT ANY POINT DURING EPISODE 11?
Yes: -210
No: +180
WILL JUDGE MARY MURPHY USE THE WORD ‘TAMALE’ AT ANY POINT DURING EPISODE 11?
Yes: -180
No: +150
WILL ANY JUDGE CRY ON CAMERA DURING A PERFORMANCE DURING EPISODE 11?
Yes: +180
No: -210
WILL ANY JUDGE CRITICIZE A DANCER’S COSTUME DURING EPISODE 11?
Yes: -300
No: +270
WILL ANY DANCER SAY ‘I’M TIRED’ AFTER THEIR PERFORMANCE DURING EPISODE 11?
Yes: -350
No: +300
WILL A DANCER SAY ‘DANCING IS MY LIFE’ AT ANY POINT DURING EPISODE 11?
Yes: +130
No: -150
WILL A DANCER SAY ‘THIS MEANS EVERYTHING TO ME’ AT ANY POINT DURING EPISODE 11?
Yes: +130
No: -150
WILL A DANCER FALL DRAMATICALLY TO THE FLOOR (INTENTIONALLY OR UNINTENTIONALLY) AT ANY POINT DURING EPISODE 11?
Yes: +150
No: +180
NUMBER OF VIEWERS FOR SEASON 14 EPISODE 11 OF ‘SYTYCD’?
0.7: -250
Not 0.7: +210
TV RATINGS FOR SEASON 14 EPISODE 11 OF ‘SYTYCD’?
0.7: -250
Not 0.7: +210
TV SHARE FOR SEASON 14 EPISODE 11 OF ‘SYTYCD’?
3: -250
Not 3: +210
VIEWERSHIP FOR SEASON 14 EPISODE 11 OF ‘SYTYCD’ WILL BE HIGHER THAN WEEK 9 (2.81 million)?
Yes: +150
No: -180