Streaking Orioles Favored Against Slumping Blue Jays
Who: Toronto Blue Jays v. Baltimore Orioles
When: Thursday August 31st, 2017 7:05PM EST
Where: Oriole Park—Baltimore, Maryland
Only a few weeks ago, if you would have said that the Orioles have a very realistic chance of making the 2017 post-season, I and many others would have called you crazy. Having said that, here we are, looking at an Orioles team that is but 1.5 games off an AL Wild Card spot. A major part of the reason why this is so is due to the fact that the O’s have been on a fantastic streak over the past week and a half or so.
Coming into Thursday night’s series opener, the Orioles have won 7 consecutive games, including 2 series sweeps against playoff contenders in the form of Seattle and Boston. Though there have been a few close games during their current streak, it is abundantly clear that the impetus behind the Orioles’ recent successes has been the offense. Scoring 6, 7, and more runs per game has simply overwhelmed opponents. The Blue Jays have been struggling in recent weeks, so if there was ever an opponent that might aid Baltimore in continuing their streak, it’s Toronto.
As for the Blue Jays, there have been many struggles this year, but these past few weeks are some of the most intense. Over their last 12 games, the Jays have gone 2-10, and have not looked good during the process. Most recently, they were swept at home by the Red Sox. The simple fact of the matter is that the Blue Jays’ problems are multifaceted.
They are not simply unable to hit the ball, or output positive pitching performances, they really struggle to do any of the above. While this season is more or less over for the Jays, the past few weeks bode poorly for next season as well. Toronto fans will be hoping that the Jays can turn things around and close out the season on a positive note, but that does not seem to be in the cards, at least not at this point in time.
Game Overview and Analysis
The Blue Jays (+115), as you might expect, will enter this game as the underdogs, and will be sending Marco Estrada (6-8 5.04 ERA) to the mound. Estrada has been decent for the Jays, as seen by his record. While there is nothing that sticks out about his performances that create much cause for concern, he has not exactly been impressive either. During each of his last 2 outings, Estrada has given up 3 earned runs in exactly 6 innings pitched. He accrued a 1-0 record over that period of time. Against the hot-hitting Orioles, Estrada will want to keep his earned run tally low, especially when you consider that the Jays’ offense has an extremely tough time putting runs on the board.
The Jays’ offense has scored just one single run across their last 2 games. To be blunt, they need to put in a much better showing against the Orioles if they want any hope of winning. I am not exactly expecting the Blue Jays to do well in this series, but at this point in the season anything can happen.
Taking the mound for the favored Orioles (-135) will be Jeremy Hellickson (8-7 4.88 ERA). Hellickson was acquired by the Orioles before the trade deadline from the Phillies. The hope was that he would help the Orioles make a post-season run, and though he has not necessarily hurt the Orioles’ chances, he has not been much of a help either. Hellickson has a 2-2 record in 5 starts with the Orioles, and has been inconsistent, to say the least. While one night he can keep his earned run total below 3, he has, on two occasions, given up 6 or more earned runs.
What we will look for on Thursday will be a solid outing from the Orioles’ bats. That is what has gotten them within touching distance of a playoff position and I think that will ultimately be the driving force, should the Orioles make the post-season.
Betting Prediction
Neither of the two starting pitchers in this series opener overly impressive, but I think that the Orioles are assuredly the better team. As such, I think you should take the Orioles’ moneyline (-135) in this one. The Jays are on a losing streak, the Orioles have been winning, so I am finding it difficult to bet against one of the hottest teams in baseball.
As far as an over/under is concerned, Bovada lists the Oriole’s team over/under at 4.5 runs (-140/+110). I think the Orioles will exceed this total, and I think their over (-140) is the best bet to take.
An alternate spread bet you can take that is very safe is one that sees the Orioles listed as +1.5 underdogs (-220). Though you are not getting the best odds, I feel as though this is a very safe bet to make when you consider just how well the Orioles have been playing over the past 2 weeks.