Super Bowl In-Game Action Proposition Betting Odds
–The Super Bowl is the biggest day of the year for North American sports betting.
–Prop bets are now the biggest part of the Super Bowl weekend ‘handle’ at sports books.
–These ‘in game action’ props cover a wide range of situations that occur during the Super Bowl.
This is one of the longest lists of Super Bowl proposition bets covering a wide variety of in-game situations. Different sports books call these different things including ‘general props’ and ‘stats props’. We’ll call them ‘in-game props’ since they all take place between kick off and the final whistle. They also apply to both teams equally. In fact, they are typically of very general terms and address the general nature of a pro football game which in this case happens to be the biggest game of the year.
That last point is very important. At the most fundamental level the Super Bowl is just another football game. This is the precise reason why many ‘sharp’ players focus their Super Bowl betting on propositions of this type. They’re fairly easy to handicap with extensive data based on hundreds, if not thousands, of NFL football games. For example, the betting public–and particularly the Super Bowl betting public which has a much higher percentage of recreational players–thinks that overtime is more common in the NFL than it really is. They also find ‘betting a little to win a lot’ (in the case of these props +1450 that the Super Bowl will go to overtime) much more attractive than ‘betting a lot to win a little’ even if it is their best interest statistically to do so.
Recreational players also want ‘action’ and bet accordingly. For that reason, the ‘public’ is more likely to bet that things *will* happen in Super Bowl props than to bet they *won’t* happen. Professional sports bettors are just the opposite–they like to be a ‘contrarian’ and look for situation where things *won’t* happen. The ‘Will there be a two point conversion’ prop is a good example of this concept. A successful two point conversion occurs in just under 20% of NFL games. This means that the ‘true odds’ of a two point conversion should be +425 in moneyline terms. Instead, a player that bets that their will be a two point conversion is getting only +250. At this price, the implied probability is a bit over 28% meaning that for this to be a price reflecting ‘true odds’ a successful two point conversion would have to take place roughly 10% more frequently than it does.
Here’s the SPORTS BETTING EXPERTS rundown of ‘in game’ Super Bowl props:
Super Bowl In Game Props
First coach mentioned by name on TV broadcast immediately after kickoff?
Dan Quinn: +130
Bill Belichick: -150
Will either team score in the first 5:30 of the first quarter?
Yes: -140
No: +110
First turnover will be?
Interception: -130
Fumble: +100
Will the team that scores first win the game?
Yes: -175
No: +150
Will the team that scores last win the game?
Yes: -250
No: +200
Will the game go to overtime?
Yes: +1450
No: -1750
Will there be a delay of the game caused by a ‘non playing field’ event (eg: power outage, TV camera issue)?
Yes: +450
No: -650
Will a safety be scored in the game?
Yes: +950
No: -1250
Will there be a safety in the first half?
Yes: +1500
No: -2750
Will there be a safety in the second half?
Yes: +1250
No: -2100
Will a special teams or defensive touchdown be scored?
Yes: +120
No: -150
Will there be a successful two point conversion?
Yes: +250
No: -325
First quarterback to be sacked?
Tom Brady: +100
Matt Ryan: -120
First offensive play from scrimmage will be?
A rushing play: -150
A passing play: +120
Result of first drive will be?
A score (TD, FG, Safety): +120
Any other outcome: -150
Will there be score in the last two minutes of the first half?
Yes: -375
No: +300
Jersey number of player to score first touchdown?
Over 18.5: -140
Under 18.5: +120
First score in the game to be?
New England touchdown: +175
Atlanta touchdown: +250
New England field goal: +350
Atlanta field goal: +350
New England safety: +7500
Atlanta safety: +7500
Total first half touchdowns?
Over 3.5: +105
Under 3.5: -125
Total touchdowns in game?
Over 7.5: +105
Under 7.5: -125
Total touchdowns in game?
Over 6.5: -130
Under 6.5 +110
Total touchdowns in game?
Over 5.5: -250
Under 5.5 +210
Total touchdowns in game?
Over 4.5: -450
Under 4.5 +325
Total touchdown passes in game?
Over 3.5: -150
Under 3.5: +130
Total yardage of all touchdowns scored in game?
Over 102 yards: -110
Under 102 yards -110
Will there be a touchdown in the first quarter?
Yes: -450
No: +375
Will there be a touchdown in the second quarter?
Yes: -2100
No: +950
Will there be a touchdown in the third quarter?
Yes: -750
No: +500
Will there be a touchdown in the fourth quarter?
Yes: -2750
No: +950
Will there be a field goal in the first quarter?
Yes: -180
No: +140
Will there be a field goal in the second quarter?
Yes: -155
No: +125
Will there be a field goal in the third quarter?
Yes: -150
No: +120
Will there be a field goal in the fourth quarter?
Yes: -145
No: +115
First coach’s challenge will be?
Upheld: +150
Overruled: -175
Will either team be flagged for ‘excessive celebration’ at any point during the Super Bowl?
Yes: -350
No: +275
Will either team’s backup quarterback take a snap in the game?
Yes: +300
No: -375
Total quarterback sacks by both teams?
Over 4: +105
Under 4: -125
Will either team attempt an onside kick?
Yes: +300
No: -450
Will either team successfully recover an onside kick?
Yes: +1200
No: -2100
Will there be a punt returned for a touchdown?
Yes: +1900
No: -3600
Will any player other than Tom Brady and Matt Ryan attempt a pass?
Yes: +300
No: -450
Total interceptions by both teams?
Over 1.5: +100
Under 1.5: -120
Total fumbles lost by both teams?
Over 1.5: +130
Under 1.5: -150
Largest lead of the game by either team?
Over 16.5: -130
Under 16.5: +110
Time of first touchdown?
Before 7:00 of Quarter 1: +105
On or after 7:00 of Quarter 1: -135
Will the shortest TD of the game be?
Over 1.5 yards: -110
Under 1.5 yards: -110
Will the longest TD of the game be?
Over 46.5 yards: -110
Under 46.5 yards: -110
First score in the second half to be?
New England touchdown: +175
Atlanta touchdown: +250
New England field goal: +350
Atlanta field goal: +350
New England safety: +7500
Atlanta safety: +7500
Will either team score three unanswered times(TD,safety or FG)?
Yes: -250
No: +210
Will either team score four unanswered times(TD,safety or FG)?
Yes: +210
No: -250
Total offensive plays in Super Bowl LI?
Over 132.5: +100
Under 132.5:-120
Total first downs in Super Bowl LI?
Over 46.5: -130
Under 46.5: +110
Will there be a successful fourth down conversion?
Yes: -250
No: +210
Will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter?
Yes: +275
No: -350
Margin of victory exactly three points?
Yes: +375
No: -550
Margin of victory exactly seven points?
Yes: +900
No: -1500
Will either team be shut out (zero points scored) for the game?
Yes: +4500
No: -15000
Halftime/Fulltime Result?(OT not included)
New England/New England: +135
New England/Atlanta: +850
New England/Draw: +1250
Atlanta/New England: +750
Atlanta/Atlanta: +450
Atlanta/Draw: +1250
Draw/New England: +1750
Draw/Atlanta: +1950
Draw/Draw: +2800