‘Survivor: Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers’ Season 35 Episode 5 Betting Odds
–This is the 35th season for CBS’s reality show.
–’Survivor’ was one of the early pioneers of the reality TV genre.
–’Survivor: Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers’ Episode 5 airs on Wednesday, October 25 at 8:00 PM Eastern.
Another episode of ‘Survivor’ is in the books and another contestant bites the dust. Voted out at the end of Episode 4 was former NFL cornerback Alan Ball. Some of the ‘Survivor’ fan sites are expressing shock that he got the boot but you won’t find that here at SPORTS BETTING EXPERTS. In our Episode 4 ‘Survivor’ betting odds Ball was the second favorite to be eliminated at +300. We’ve got a new favorite in the ‘next to be eliminated’ hit parade–that’s Joe Mena at +150 though previous favorite Lauren Rimmer is right behind at +200. Another important concept that I talked about in last week’s odds preview–the elimination ‘swerve’. This is a classic pro wrestling booking tactic and you see it a lot on reality TV. Here’s what I said:
Lauren Rimmer remains our favorite to get eliminated in the next episode priced at +200. One of the factors that makes setting odds on reality shows challenging is that the ‘obvious’ contestant to be eliminated is often kept around for that very reason. The idea is that people will tune in in hopes that the contestant will *finally* meet their denouement. This ‘swerve’ has become ubiquitious on reality television and while any causal relationship with higher ratings is likely impossible to prove don’t expect it to go anywhere. ‘Project Runway’, for example, has done this with the Buitendorp Twins this season. Their antics are definitely the most memorable thing on the show which is why the producers have strung out their ultimate elimination for so long. There’s an old pro wrestling adage that the best way to ‘draw money’ is to have people love you. The second best way is to have people hate you. That concept also applies to reality television.
A BIT ABOUT ODDSMAKING THEORY
It’s important to keep in mind that betting odds are not a ‘prediction’ by the guy making them, in this case me. There’s a predictive element to them to be sure but their true purpose is to divide betting action equally. In a pro football game, the book wants the same amount of money on both sides of the game. This is why the pointspread exists and why they move. If they’ve got too much money on one side the book will move the line to make the other side more attractive. There are other reasons prices can change. New injury information will typically result in a game being taken ‘off the board’ and repriced. In rare instances, however, the line movement is entirely public money being thrown at one side of the proposition. The most glaring example of this I’ve seen recently (and maybe in my entire handicapping career) was the Floyd Mayweather/Conor McGregor fight. Money kept coming for Conor and no matter what bookmakers did to the price to attract action on ‘Money’ Mayweather. Even when a ‘wise guy’ took a big swing at the favorite–and there were a number of 7 figure bets on Mayweather–the public quickly negated it.
That’s a very extreme example, but in any oddsmaking endeavor I have to remain cognizant of what the public thinks no matter how ‘right’ I think I am. This is particularly true in the modern ‘corporate’ environment of bookmaking where the goal is ‘risk management’ and not to make as much money as possible. There were plenty of executives at sportsbooks all over the world who knew that the price on Conor should have been *much* higher but they had to overlook that fact to manage their potential downside risk. Were I running a book I would have kept Conor priced significantly higher than the rest of the market. It was a rare instance where I would have taken every penny of McGregor action I could get. But I digress….
The producers of ‘Survivor’ are no doubt happy this week as the show turned in a very strong ratings performance for Episode 4. The final numbers showed a 1.8 rating with a 7 share which tied for the best of the night. ‘Survivor’ destroyed it when total viewers are considered–the show attracted 8.12 viewers. No other show was even close and only two did more than 6 million viewers–‘SEAL Team’ pulled in 7.11 million viewers and ‘Modern Family’ got 6.22 million.
A FEW PROCEDURAL NOTES
Finally, a few procedural notes–the official source for TV rating grading is:
and I’ve added an ‘official’ grading source for the various ‘pixelation due to nudity’ props. I’m going to use ‘Pick Pete’ and more specifically their statistical episode recaps. They run a ‘Fantasy Survivor’ game and ‘contestant nudity’ is one of the scoring categories.
I had thought this would be ‘self explanatory’ but following Episode 4 there were a couple of fantasy games that indicated ‘contestant nudity’ had taken place. There *was* some ‘pixelation’ but it was due to Roark Luskin lobbing an obvious ‘F-bomb’ during the immunity challenge. Our prop bets specifically stipulate that only pixelation due to nudity counts for purposes of grading the wagers. If I were playing a fantasy game that gave credit for ‘contestant nudity’ based on the aforementioned ‘F-bomb’ I would demand a recount. Incidentially, one of the ‘Survivor’ gang at Reddit pointed out that Roark has been ‘pixelated’ for profanity in every episode this year except the season premiere.
I also wanted to have an official ‘grading source’ for the aforementioned prop bets because there have been several non-pixelated ‘judgement calls’ this season. While the wager clearly says ‘pixelated due to nudity’ I’d at least listen to an appeal for nudity without pixelation. Here are photos from some of the ‘close calls’ this year courtesy of a ‘Suvivor’ sub-Reddit called ‘Survivor Beauty’:
It’s probably *not* a coincidence that these three are three top choices among female contestants in our ‘Nudity Pixelation’ odds.
Finally, one of the big storylines in Episode 4 was a ‘tribal swap’. I guess this means that the ‘Heroes’, ‘Healers’ and ‘Hustlers’ are no longer making up each tribe so I’ll have to change all of the odds wording to reflect this. The new blue Levu tribe consists of Ashley, Desi, Devon and Joe; the new yellow Soko tribe consists of Ali, Chrissy, JP, Roark and Ryan and the new red Yawa tribe consists of Ben, Cole, Jessica, Lauren and Mike.
‘SURVIVOR’ RECAP AT ‘INSIDE SURVIVOR’
‘SURVIVOR’ RECAP AT ‘ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY’
‘SURVIVOR’ RECAP AT ‘GOLD DERBY’
Here’s the official SPORTS BETTING EXPERTS odds for Episode 5 of ‘Survivor: Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers’:
‘SURVIVOR: HEROES V. HEALERS V. HUSTLERS’ SEASON 35 BETTING ODDS
TO WIN ‘SURVIVOR: HEROES V. HEALERS V. HUSTLERS’
Ryan Ulrich: +250
Chrissy Hofbeck: +350
Ali Elliott: +700
Cole Medders: +700
Ben Driebergen: +950
John Hilsabeck: +950
Jessica Johnston: +950
Roark Luskin: +2100
Ashley Nolan: +3500
Lauren Rimmer: +3500
Joe Mena: +3500
Mike Zahalsky: +3500
Desiree Williams: +3500
Devon Pinto: +3500
GENDER OF ‘SURVIVOR: HEROES V. HEALERS V. HUSTLERS’ WINNER
Male: -150
Female: +130
AGE OF ‘SURVIVOR: HEROES V. HEALERS V. HUSTLERS’ WINNER
Over 30.5: +150
Under 30.5: -170
‘SURVIVOR: HEROES V. HEALERS V. HUSTLERS’ EPISODE 5 BETTING ODDS
WHO WILL BE ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 5?
Joe Mena: +150
Lauren Rimmer: +200
Desiree Williams: +500
Ali Elliott: +1500
Roark Luskin: +2100
Ben Driebergen: +2500
Chrissy Hofbeck: +2500
Ashley Nolan: +2500
Mike Zahalsky: +5000
Ryan Ulrich: +5000
Devon Pinto: +5000
John Hilsabeck: +5000
Jessica Johnston: +5000
Cole Medders: +5000
No One Eliminated in Episode 5: +7500
WHO WILL WIN REWARD IN EPISODE 5?
Yawa Tribe (Hustlers): -150
Soko Tribe (Healers): +170
Levu Tribe (Heroes): +300
No Reward Winner: +5000
WHO WILL WIN IMMUNITY IN EPISODE 5?
Soko Tribe (Healers): -250
Yawa Tribe (Hustlers): +175
Levu Tribe (Heroes): +500
No Immunity Winner: +5000
WILL A HIDDEN IDOL BE PLAYED IN EPISODE 5?
Yes: +750
No: -1500
WILL ANYONE QUIT/BE REMOVED FROM ISLAND DUE TO INJURY IN EPISODE 5?
Yes: +3500
No: -7000
WILL A CONTESTANT BE ‘PIXELATED’ DUE TO NUDITY IN EPISODE 5?
Yes: +130
No: -150
WILL A CONTESTANT BE ‘PIXELATED’ DUE TO NUDITY BETWEEN THE BEGINNING OF EPISODE 5 AND THE END OF SEASON 35?
Yes: -750
No: +500
GENDER IDENTITY OF NEXT CONTESTANT TO BE ‘PIXELATED’ DUE TO NUDITY?
Female: +110
Male: -130
NEXT CONTESTANT TO BE ‘PIXELATED’ DUE TO NUDITY?
Jessica Johnston: +450
John Hilsabeck +450
Ashley Nolan: +500
Cole Medders: +500
Devon Pinto: +500
Ali Elliott: +650
Roark Luskin: +650
Ben Driebergen: +3500
Joe Mena: +3500
Chrissy Hofbeck: +5000
Lauren Rimmer: +5000
Ryan Ulrich: +5000
Desiree Williams: +5000
Mike Zahalsky: +5000
No One Pixelated Due To Nudity in Season 35: +7500
In the previous four propositions pixelation must be due to accidental or intentional nudity and not due to obscene gestures or any other reason.
EPISODE 5 KEY DEMO (18-49) RATINGS
Over 1.75: -150
Under 1.75: +130
EPISODE 5 KEY DEMO (18-49) SHARE
Over 6.5: -130
Under 6.5: +110
EPISODE 5 TOTAL VIEWERS
Over 8 million: -170
Under 8 million: +150
EPISODE 5 NIELSEN RANKING (10/9/17 through 10/15/17)
Over 9.5: -120
Under 9.5: +100
PREVIOUS ELIMINATIONS
Katrina Radke finished 18th
Simone Nguyen finished 17th
Patrick Bolton finished 16th
Alan Ball finished 15th