Technology Odds–Apple iPhone 7 Opening Weekend Sales
Apple revolutionized the world with the iPhone, the first legitimate ‘smartphone’ sold to the US market. Since then they’ve become ubiquitous. Google got into the game with their Android operating system not long after the release of the original iPhone in 2007. Apple has sold a ton of iPhones since then but there are many suggesting that the company has lost its way. There’s been nothing ‘spectacular’ released by Apple since the death of Steve Jobs in 2011. New CEO Tim Cook has some huge shoes to fill and–for now–there’s no real pressure to replace him.
That could change if iPhone sales continue to slip. Apple saw iPhone sales drop in the second quarter of 2016 and earlier today Target released sales numbers. They claim that sales of Apple products are down more than 20% in the second quarter. To some extent, this could all be ‘scapegoating’–electronic sales were down overall at Target which they blamed on consumers not upgrading. An alternate causality could be the awful job they do merchandizing electronics in general and the lack of well trained, knowledgable employees selling these products. Target also has a bad reputation for keeping electronics in stock–you’ll often go to buy something and they’ll have a unit on display but none to sell.
There are bigger trends that could also be the *real* factor. ‘Brick and mortar’ retail in general is in a death spiral and so called ‘big box’ stores like Target and WalMart have been among the hardest hit. As Amazon and other online retailers take over a bigger portion of electronic sales it’s just common sense that ‘brick and mortar’ stores will see a decline. Target gained a reputation for ‘innovation’ during the 1990’s but they’ve done a poor job responding to the new marketplace realities with a clunky website and no new ideas in store either.
ENTER THE APPLE iPHONE 7
Apple is hoping that the next version of the iPhone 7 will be as big a hit as the previous iterations. The phone is famous for huge opening weekend sales of each new release. The first three iPhone models (the iPhone, the iPhone 3G and the iPhone 3GS) sold roughly a million units each opening weekend. Since then, the release of each iPhone model has seen a higher number of first weekend sales than the one before it. The iPhone 4 was released in 2010 selling 1.4 million units opening weekend. The iPhone 4S was an even bigger hit selling 4 million units opening weekend. Next up was the iPhone 5 which sold 5 million units opening weekend.
Sales of the follow up to the iPhone 5–called the iPhone 5S and 5C–nearly doubled the opening weekend sales of its predecessor moving 9 million units in 2013. The iPhone 6 sold 10 million units opening weekend and the most recent upgrade–the iPhone 6S and 6S Plus–sold 13 million opening weekend. So how many units of the iPhone 7 will Apple sell opening weekend?
APPLE iPHONE 7 OPENING WEEKEND SALES ODDS
Rules: At least one iPhone 7 model must be released by 10/1/16 for action. Wager will be graded on the most widely accepted opening weekend numbers from Apple and reported in the Wall Street Journal
APPLE IPHONE 7 WILL SELL OVER 15 MILLION OPENING WEEKEND -110
APPLE IPHONE 7 WILL SELL UNDER 15 MILLION OPENING WEEKEND -110
APPLE IPHONE 7 WILL SELL MORE UNITS OPENING WEEKEND THAN THE IPHONE 6S/6S PLUS -150
APPLE IPHONE 7 WILL SELL FEWER UNITS OPENING WEEKEND THAN THE IPHONE 6S/6S PLUS +130
Another closely watched source of data is the market share of the Apple iOS operating system versus the Google Android operating system. As of February 2016 the Android OS held 52.7% of the market to the Apple iOS’s 43.9% share of the market (there are a few other operating systems with a fractional share such as the Microsoft offering and the Blackberry OS 10). The props below are based on these numbers.
APPLE IOS US MARKET SHARE WILL BE HIGHER IN JANUARY 2017 THAN IT WAS IN JANUARY 2016 (OVER 43.7%) -110
APPLE IOS US MARKET SHARE WILL BE LOWER IN JANUARY 2017 THAN IT WAS IN JANUARY 2016 (UNDER 43.7%) -110
APPLE IOS US MARKET SHARE IN JANUARY 2017 OVER 45% +200
APPLE IOS US MARKET SHARE IN JANUARY 2017 UNDER 45% -250
APPLE IOS US MARKET SHARE IN JANUARY 2017 OVER 50% +900
APPLE IOS US MARKET SHARE IN JANUARY 2017 UNDER 50% -1200
Rules: At least one iPhone 7 model must be released by 10/1/16 for action. Wager will be graded using January 2017 US market share percentage as reported at Statista.com
APPLE IPHONE 7 SALES ANALYSIS
The rules stipulate that the iPhone 7 must be released by October 1, 2016 in order to control for extenuating market circumstances in setting the betting odds. The announcement event for the iPhone 7 is set for September 7 with online pre-orders beginning on September 9. The two ‘on sale’ dates have been speculated to be either September 16 or what appears to be the more likely scenario at this point, on September 23. Reports also indicate that Apple will release at least two and possibly three different models. Another reason for the date restriction is that a delay in release can also indicate a problem with the manufacturing process or in another area of distribution.
One thing to keep in mind–it’s a good idea not to get hoodwinked by the opinions of the financial or tech media. They’ve been underwhelmed by iPhone model releases in the past but that hasn’t done anything to dampen opening weekend sales. Despite much speculation that the Apple brand is ‘losing its appeal’ it still carries a lot of luster in ‘Middle America’.
Before the announce event we’ll post some more iPhone 7 prop bets covering phone features, tech media reviews and worldwide sales.