Technology Odds–Apple iPhone 7 Reviews Proposition Bets

The biggest story in the consumer technology world at the moment is the impending release of the iPhone 7. We’ve already ‘posted odds’ on the first weekend sales of the iPhone 7 and odds on specific elements of the phone’s design that as of yet have been kept under wraps.

We’ll now turn our attention to another important element of any product launch–the reviews of the product by consumers and the tech media. It’s doubtful that reviews alone could make or break an iPhone launch at this stage of the game. There are people who will upgrade based on name alone regardless of what the ‘word on the streets’ might be. There are also plenty of iPhone customers who don’t care about the tech media in the first place. Apple will have huge sales of the iPhone 7 regardless of what the tech media has to say.

For a company as iconic as Apple the reviews might not drive (or undermine) their sales but they’re still important. Even if the ‘man on the street’ doesn’t pay attention to tech industry reviews the ‘man on Wall Street’ aka the financial media does. It’s not hard for a CNBC/Fox Business/Bloomberg talking head to weave a narrative that the iPhone is a ‘flop’ or a ‘disappointment’ based on a few tepid reviews. There’s even some of that in advance of the iPhone 7 release which is what prompted this series in the first place. Lest we forget, the iPhone blew out 14 million units in the first weekend of release and ended up on just about every ‘Best Cellphone’ list for last year and this year. There’s been some hand wringing over the fact that the iPhone 6 and 6S sold better in 2015 (when it was first released) than it did in 2016 (when it was a year old) but that’s hardly a surprise. This might be a stretch to portray the iPhone 6 and 6S as a ‘disappointment’ but it does underscore how easy it is to construct a ‘narrative’ about a company and have it gain traction regardless of accuracy.

In any case, the attention is now on the iPhone 7 and we’ve set some odds on the critical reception it will receive:

APPLE IPHONE 7 REVIEW ODDS

RULES: Scores based on the official editorial review from the source indicated unless specified otherwise. If multiple models of the iPhone 7 are reviewed only the base model will be action.

Wired Magazine might not be as influential and cutting edge as it once was but people still pay attention to what they say about consumer products. They were generally positive about the iPhone 6 and even more so the iPhone 6S. The iPhone 6 received a score of 7 out of 10 when reviewed while the iPhone 6S came in at 8 of 10. We’re looking for another 8 score. Given the fact that there’s nothing revolutionary about the iPhone 7 relative to the iPhone 6/6S it’s hard to see them coming in with a 9 or higher. By the same token, unless one of the new features ending up being a travesty hard to see them going below 7.

Tech website ZDNet gave the iPhone 6 a review score of 8.7 and the iPhone 6S a review score of 9.0. Given what we know about the iPhone 7 it’s hard to think they’ll go lower than 8. But can they go up from 9? Maybe–if the dual lens camera delivers that could be the difference maker. Apple has set a high standard with the iPhone cameras but the reviews over the 6 and 6S cameras were mixed.

CNET is just barely above the mainstream media in quality tech coverage these days. They spend more time doing the same sort of tech fearmongering as Yahoo and the local TV news (‘Girl Impregnated While Playing Pokemon GO’) than they do actually covering the tech industry building the future before our eyes. For some reason, however, people still care what they think about consumer electronics.

Both the iPhone 6 and the iPhone 6S got 4.5 stars from CNET’s editors. Given the superficial nature of the 6/6S reviews–praising the screen size and griping about battery life–hard to see much change. Don’t expect them to be nitpicky about specs–as long as the ‘regular folks’ who concern themselves with celebrity selfie scandals like it CNET will validate their opinion. Since CNET scores on a 1 to 5 scale we’ve made the O/U numbers 3.25 and 4.25.

Now we’ll give the consumer their say. All of the recent iPhone releases come in at either 4 or 4.5 stars in the Amazon buyer ratings. By October 1 it should be in the hands of enough customers to get a feel for their opinion.