Thursday NCAA Tournament Best Bets
We’ll take a break from hockey to bring you our best bets in opening weekend NCAA Tournament action. Here are our top plays for Thursday–we’ll be back on Thursday evening with our top plays on Friday’s card:
THURSDAY NCAA ACTION:
WICHITA STATE VS. ARIZONA:
Were I to ever have kids I might have to name one after Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall. Marshall was one of my personal ‘cash cows’ during his tenure at South Carolina’s Winthrop University. Of course now the entire world knows who he is thanks to his impressive run at Wichita State. Marshall made his bones under defensive wizard John Kresse at the College of Charleston and brings the same ‘in your face’ intensity as his mentor–only with better athletes. Marshall definitely isn’t the most publicity seeking head coach in college hoops. All he does is coach nasty defense and win games. In my opinion, he’s the best coach in college basketball.
The only thing more dangerous than a good head coach who has his team playing the best team defense in college hoops (less than 60 ppg) is to give that coach a very experienced starting backcourt. Marshall has this as well–Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet have had four years soaking up his defensive wisdom. Besides, how many first round underdogs boast a starting backcourt with Final Four experience?
Arizona didn’t dominate anyone away from their tough home court in Tucson. The Wildcats were 1-4 ATS in neutral court games this year and 6-9 ATS in true road games. It doesn’t get more ‘true road game’ than playing at the Dunkin Donuts Center in Providence, Rhode Island. Throw in unfamiliar sight lines and you’re giving the Shockers’ defense an advantage they don’t need. Wichita wins outright as a +1.5 underdog.
BET WICHITA STATE +1.5 OVER ARIZONA
HAMPTON VS. VIRGINIA:
Lopsided instate rivalry game but Hampton is a more capable #16 than we’re used to expecting. Hampton showed a lot of poise last year beating Manhattan in the play in game which brought them the ‘reward’ of playing a 35-0 NBA player laden Kentucky team. Hampton didn’t come anywhere close to pulling off the upset but they certainly didn’t embarrass themselves against an undefeated team. Now Hampton gets a ton of points and faces a defensively tenacious but offensively mediocre Virginia team. UVA failed to cover in the past two NCAA tournament first rounds but now they’re laying over 20 points. Don’t see Hampton giving the #1 seeded Cavs a straight up scare but they don’t need to do that to cover this price.
BET HAMPTON +24 OVER VIRGINIA
KANSAS VS. AUSTIN PEAY:
Similar concept to the play above. Kansas has the ability to run Austin Peay off the court but why would they want to? Their track record in NCAA tournament play sure doesn’t suggest a blowout here. They’ve failed to cover 3 of their last 4 NCAA tournament games. They’re also 15-17-1 ATS in tournament play since 2006 including 12-14-1 as a favorite. They’ll be more concerned about their two potentially tricky second round matchups–facing either Connecticut or Colorado is no ‘gimmie’.
BET AUSTIN PEAY +26 OVER KANSAS
GONZAGA VS. ST. JOHN’S:
At some point in the early part of the college hoop season someone decided that Gonzaga was ‘down’ this year and it became the accepted conventional wisdom going forward. The only problem is that the reality is far different–this Gonzaga team improved consistently throughout the season and finally ‘gelled’ winning the West Coast Conference tournament. Polish center Przemek Karnowski took some time to get going. They’ve got a young backcourt that is playing well and have good size and range up front. Kyle Wiltjer (Kentucky transfer) is a three point shooting monster. Domantas Sabonis and could be playing in the NBA next year.
The Big East isn’t as tough as it was ‘back in the day’ and St. John’s has a horrible logistical assignment. They head across country into the Mountain Time Zone to play an unfamiliar opponent at 5,290 feet above sea level. That’s tough for anyone but especially for a team that won their conference tournament on their home court (well, one of them–Madison Square Garden). The fact that most of the impact players on St. John’s are underclassmen doesn’t help matters a bit.
BET GONZAGA -1 OVER SETON HALL