Thursday NFL Football Betting: Houston Texans at New England Patriots
One NFL game for Thursday night but it should be a good one as the New England Patriots host the Houston Texans in a battle of undefeated teams:
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL FOOTBALL BETTING:
HOUSTON TEXANS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:
The big story surrounding this game is the New England Patriots’ quarterback situation. Rookie Jacoby Brissett out of North Carolina State is expected to start for New England which would make him the first African American quarterback to start for the Patriots. He’ll also be only the second rookie quarterback to start for a Bill Belichick coached team–Eric Zeier started for Belichick’s Cleveland Browns in 1995. That’s all assuming that Brissett gets the start here. Belichick has yet to confirm that and injured Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t been officially ruled out yet, listed as ‘doubtful’ on NFL injury reports. Garoppolo has returned to practice on a limited basis which makes the situation even more obtuse. Belichick said nothing with this quote:
“Each week it seems like there is always some position that you have to take into consideration what your depth is there. Obviously, you take into consideration your opponent and how you want to try and play the game, what you want to try and do against them, and put it all together and do the best you can.”
More than likely Brissett will end up starting and that’s the Patriots are +1 home underdogs. Year after year, the NFL betting public keeps repeating the same mistakes. They overrated the importance of the starting quarterback. The underrate the skill of backup quarterbacks. Most significantly, they give way more significance to injuries of all types than they really deserve. Brissett looked solid after Garoppolo left the game last week and in his preseason action.
Lost in all of the discussion of New England’s quarterback situation is the fact that Houston starting quarterback Brock Osweiler is making only his fourth career start on the road and his tenth career start overall. Osweiler is 7-2 in his career starts including 2-1 on the road but this is arguably his most difficult. The Patriots are a nasty home team. In the last three years they’re 18-2 SU/12-5-1 ATS. They’re 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS against the AFC South.
They’ve been particularly nasty as an underdog–7-1 SU/ATS last three years with a record of 87-49 ATS since 1992. As a home underdog they’re 2-0 SU/ATS over the last three years. Since 1992, they’re 12-4 SU/12-3-1 ATS. Of course the Texans have a good record as a favorite (13-2 SU/12-3 ATS L3 years).
The local media has been breathlessly reporting that coach Belichick will make his decision on the starting quarterback ‘as early as this afternoon’. More likely, he already knows. Obviously he’d rather be playing with Tom Brady or Jimmy Garrapolo but the notion that he’s somehow at wits ends given the current situation is laughable. It’s funny how the public will at times suggest that Belichick has almost mythical properties but at other times (such as this one) they’ll act like his a rookie head coach getting his first taste of adversity. ESPN had a rare cogent article when they noted that amid all of the hoopla about the Patriots’ quarterback situation that their nasty running game is being overlooked. The Pats’ success running the ball hasn’t been lost on Houston head coach Bill O’Brien:
“People have asked me over the last couple of days about the quarterback position, but I think that one of the keys is how they’ve been able to run the football. Very physical upfront.”
This could be a huge deal–it not only makes life easier for Brissett but is a potent weapon in itself. The most likely scenario for this game is a redux of what we saw with Garrapolo. The media will get hysterical wondering how the Pats can win with Brissett before realizing that he’s a pretty capable quarterback playing in a great system run by arguably the best coach in football. The Patriots are fine. Tom Brady will be back in two games but until then Belichick has everything under control. Julian Edelman has done a lot of work just in case he needs to play quarterback and there’s a chance that Garrapolo will be available on an emergency basis.
BET NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +1 OVER HOUSTON TEXANS