‘Top Chef Colorado’– Episode 2 Betting Odds
–’Top Chef Colorado’ is the title of the 15th season of the ‘Top Chef’ franchise.
–The finale of ‘Top Chef Colorado’ was filmed in Aspen during the Food and Wine Classic.
–Episode 2 of ‘Top Chef Colorado’ will air on December 14, 2017 at 10:00 PM Eastern on Bravo
In the preseason preview of ‘Top Chef Colorado’ I wrote expansively about the difficulty of handicapping and setting odds on reality TV shows that have some basis in real life. I guess a better way to explain it is that the more a reality show requires ‘real life skills’ the more difficult it is to handicap. For whatever reason, cooking shows are the most difficult of all. In theory, they shouldn’t be–I’m very much a food geek, my ex-wife was a Cordon Bleu graduate and (for awhile at least) a chef herself. I have a significantly better grasp on the skills necessary for culinary success than I do ballroom dancing or clothing design–yet for some reason that doesn’t make handicapping cooking competitions easier.
Here’s what I wrote last week re: cooking shows:
Cooking competition shows are even more difficult. In most formats including ‘Top Chef’ and ‘Hell’s Kitchen’ the contestants enter with considerable culinary background. It’s not hard getting extensive professional information to work with–in some cases actual resumes. That being said, it’s important to keep in mind that I’m not hiring a head chef for ‘Jim’s Sports Betting Experts Cafe’. I’m not even trying to make a normative judgement about which contestant is the best chef ‘pound for pound’. It’s a confluence of factors–their real life culinary aptitude combined with the judging criteria and show format. That, of course, assumes that the performances and/or results aren’t manipulated for ‘better television’ which they most definitely are. This is particularly problematic in a cooking competition since you can make a compelling case that the best personality type for culinary success–low key, earnest, hard working–is the diametric opposite from the type of strong personality that plays well on television.
In other words, you’re trying to determine not only each contestant’s intrinsic skills but trying to figure out how they extrapolate to the show format and judging criteria. Then you have to consider personality and charisma and that’s a tough thing to quantify. To some extent, you can use previous winners as a template but not always. I’ve had the most success at ‘skill based’ reality TV oddsmaking my simply going off my instincts to rank the contestants and set the initial set of numbers.
WHAT WE LEARNED IN EPISODE ONE
Not much, at least not much that is actionable for handicapping or oddsmaking. The preseason numbers were set based among other things on career information about each contestant that I was able to track down online. I’m not inclined to make too many changes based on one episode (and particularly given the format of Episode One) but I have tweaked them somewhat. Melissa Perfit was eliminated which could have been due as much to her penchant for panic attacks as her cooking. She got ‘sent down’ to the Bravo web series ‘Last Chance Kitchen’. ‘Last Chance Kitchen’ is basically the second ring of a two ring battle royal with the ‘winner’ returning to join the ‘Top Chef’ season finale. Melissa was ‘one and done’ in ‘Last Chance Kitchen’, eliminated in her debut episode.
Here’s something else I’m going to keep an eye on. This is the top and bottom three for the week:
Melissa: OUT
Adrienne: LOW
Carrie: LOW
Christopher: HIGH
Fatima: HIGH
Tyler: WIN
The ‘low three’ in Episode One are all female. Obviously this is a ‘small sample size’ but given the well known difficulty of women in the culinary profession this could be something to watch. There could be a judging bias, a bad contestant mix for the women or some combination thereof. My hunch is that if several female contestants get eliminated early on the show producers will intervene and set things right.
Here are the odds to win the overall season competition along with odds for Episode Two:
‘TOP CHEF COLORADO’ TOP CHEF SEASON 15 BETTING ODDS
TO WIN ‘TOP CHEF COLORADO’
Fatima Ali: +350
Laura Cole: +600
Rogelio Garcia: +600
Christopher Scott: +750
Joe Sasto: +750
Tyler Anderson: +1100
Brother Luck: +1100
Tu David Phu: +1500
Joseph Flamm: +1500
Bruce Kalman: +1500
Adrienne Cheatham: +2500
Carrie Baird: +2500
Tanya Holland: +2500
Claudette Zepeda-Wilkins: +2500
GENDER OF ‘TOP CHEF COLORADO’ WINNER
Male: -170
Female: +150
WILL ANY CHEF WITHDRAW FROM THE ‘TOP CHEF COLORADO’ COMPETITION?
Yes: +370
No: -450
‘TOP CHEF COLORADO’ EPISODE 2 BETTING ODDS
TO BE ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 2
Carrie Baird: +500
Tanya Holland: +500
Claudette Zepeda-Wilkins: +500
Bruce Kalman: +750
Adrienne Cheatham: +750
Tu David Phu: +1150
Christopher Scott: 1150
Brother Luck: +1500
Joseph Flamm: +1500
Tyler Anderson: +1500
Laura Cole: +2500
Rogelio Garcia: +2500
Joe Sasto: +2500
Fatima Ali: +2500
No One Eliminated in Episode 2: +5000
TO BE AMONG THE ‘LOW ENTRIES’ BUT SAFE IN EPISODE 2
Carrie Baird: +350
Tanya Holland: +350
Claudette Zepeda-Wilkins: +350
Bruce Kalman: +500
Adrienne Cheatham: +500
Tu David Phu: +750
Christopher Scott: 750
Brother Luck: +750
Joseph Flamm: +750
Tyler Anderson: +750
Laura Cole: +1250
Rogelio Garcia: +1250
Joe Sasto: +1250
Fatima Ali: +1250
No One In ‘Low Entries’ and not eliminated in Episode 2: +10000
WHO WILL WIN MAIN CHALLENGE?
Fatima Ali: +350
Laura Cole: +600
Rogelio Garcia: +600
Christopher Scott: +750
Joe Sasto: +750
Tyler Anderson: +1100
Brother Luck: +1100
Tu David Phu: +1500
Joseph Flamm: +1500
Bruce Kalman: +1500
Adrienne Cheatham: +2500
Carrie Baird: +2500
Tanya Holland: +2500
Claudette Zepeda-Wilkins: +2500
No main challenge winner in Episode 2: +5000
WHO WILL WIN QUICKFIRE CHALLENGE?
Fatima Ali: +350
Laura Cole: +600
Rogelio Garcia: +600
Christopher Scott: +750
Joe Sasto: +750
No quickfire challenge winner in Episode 2: +750
Tyler Anderson: +1100
Brother Luck: +1100
Tu David Phu: +1500
Joseph Flamm: +1500
Bruce Kalman: +1500
Adrienne Cheatham: +2500
Carrie Baird: +2500
Tanya Holland: +2500
Claudette Zepeda-Wilkins: +2500
‘TOP CHEF COLORADO’ EPISODE 2 RATING
Over 0.35: -130
Under 0.35: +110
‘TOP CHEF COLORADO’ EPISODE 2 VIEWERSHIP
Over 0.85 million: -130
Under 0.85 million: +110
‘TOP CHEF COLORADO’ EPISODE 2 NIGHTLY RANKING AMONG TOP 150 ORIGINAL CABLE PROGRAMS FOR THURSDAY, DECEMBER 14
Over 12.5: -170
Under 12.5: +150
The previous three props will be graded from information published on ShowBuzzDaily