Underdog Angels Look to Take Game 1 in Texas
Who: Los Angeles Angels v. Texas Rangers
When: Friday July 7th, 2017 8:05PM EST
Where: Globe Life Park—Arlington, Texas
The Angels and Rangers are set to do battle on Friday night to kick off what is sure to be an exciting series. Up to this point in the season, it is almost like these two teams are destined to mimic each other. Not only are both teams similarly far behind division leaders Houston, they both have similar records across their last 8 games. In those games, the Rangers have won 2 and lost 6, while the Angels have won 3 and lost 5. As we inch closer and closer to the All-Star break, both of these two teams will want to lay claim to some level of consistency.
The story Friday night will be one of two pitchers with drastically different records up to this point. In addition to that, we are going to be watching two offenses that are capable of hitting the ball around the park. The Angels and Rangers have always partaken in exciting divisional series, and I do not think this one will be any exception.
Game Overview and Analysis
Taking the mound for the visiting Angels (+130) will be Ricky Nolasco (4-9 4.42 ERA). Nolasco is an interesting story, and one of drastically different fortunes. Before his most recent 2 consecutive victories, Nolasco had lost 7 consecutive games. During that woeful streak, Nolasco wasn’t pitching as poorly as his record might suggest, however. In many games, Nolasco would give up a few runs, but get absolutely no help from his offense. There are a few exceptions to this, but as the Angels offense has turned things around, so too has Nolasco. His last two outing have been dominant wins. In fact, his most recent outing on July 1st against the Mariners saw Nolasco give up 0 earned runs in 9 innings. If he can come even close to replicating that performance tonight, him and the Angels (+130) will have absolutely no problems.
For the Rangers (-150), veteran Cole Hamels (3-0 4.12 ERA) will be taking the mound. Hamels, like Nolasco, is an interesting story. Hamels’ 3-0 record might suggest that he is having a lights-out year, but such is not exactly the case. Hamels has 3 wins, yes, however in all of the games where he earned a no decision, his team lost. In fact, one of his recent no decisions saw him give up 7 earned runs. It is not every day that a pitcher can get hit around that badly and still escape without a loss on their record.
As far as the offensive battle in this game is concerned, we have a lot of injuries to talk about. For the Angels, Mike Trout is still on a rehab trip in the minors. He will likely not return until after the All-Star break. The Rangers are stricken with injuries as well, having lost a few players in the last few weeks. Thanks to this, I think Nolasco has a really good chance of putting forth another solid performance.
Betting Prediction
As far as who to take in this one, I think the Angels moneyline (+130) offers both a lot of value and is the logical bet to make. Cole Hamels has been good this year, but Nolasco has a lot of momentum in recent weeks, especially having come off his most recent, highly impressive performance. If he can even come close to replicating his outing versus the Mariners, I do not only think the Angels will win, I think they will win quite easily.
As far as the over/under is concerned, Bovada currently has it listed at 10 runs (-120/-110). I think the under (-110) is the logical bet in this one, mostly because these pitchers are both pretty solid. In addition to that, the Angels’ best offensive player is on the DL, and so too are a few key contributors for the Rangers. All things told, I think this game will stay under that 10 run tally. There is an alternate over/under of 12.5 (+175/-225) listed on Bovada as well. Though the value is not near what it is for the 10 run over/under, the under here seems like a very safe bet. You will have to risk a bit more in order to make the wager worth it, but I think there is a high likelihood that this game stays well under 13 runs.
This may be a bit of a bold prediction, but Bovada currently has an alternate spread that lists the Angels as -1.5 run favorites (+195). Seeing as I think the Angels are going to win, I do not find it difficult to believe that they will win by at least 2 runs. As I have said multiple times already, the Rangers are dealing with some injury issues that will be difficult to overcome against a pitcher like Nolasco.