Underdog Pirates Roll Into Chicago with Momentum
Who: Pittsburgh Pirates v. Chicago Cubs
When: Friday July 7th, 2017 2:20PM EST
Where: Wrigley Field—Chicago, Illinois
The Pirates and Cubs will enter this series in Chicago fully understanding that this series is big for both of them, at least on the mental side of things. The Cubs find themselves 4.5 back of division leaders Milwaukee, while the Pirates are an even 7 games back. Realistically, the division is wide open. Understanding this, every divisional game is of the utmost importance. The Cubs will be looking to inch closer to the top of the division, while the Pirates will hope to better their divisional standing and head into the All-Star break with a mental boost.
Being that this is the first of a 3-game series, Bovada is currently offering odds on the series as a whole. For those who may be unfamiliar, a wager on the series line is simply you wagering on which team will win 2 of 3 games. Right now, the Pirates are +195 underdogs, while the Cubs are favored and listed at -250 on the series moneyline. I truly think that the Pirates, having won 3 consecutive games, are likely to win 2 of 3 in this one. Not only is this a bold prediction, it is a potentially profitable one as well.
Game Overview and Analysis
While all the talk around Wrigley field is of the struggling Kyle Schwarber making his return from a stint in the minors, the focus should be on Friday’s starting pitchers. Taking the mound for the visiting Pirates (+120) will be the right-hander Trevor Williams (3-3 4.67 ERA). Williams is not doing so well as of late, and has not earned a decision since an outing against the Mets all the way back in the first week of June. In his last 3 outings, Williams has given up at least 2 earned in each and the Pirates ended up losing. Granted, the no decisions would suggest that the losses were not Williams’ fault, however he has not done much to help his nor the Pirates’ cause.
Taking the mound for the Cubs (-140) will be Eddie Butler (4-3 4.18 ERA). If Williams has been underwhelming so far this year, Butler has been exactly that as well. Butler has been as inconsistent as they come. While one night, he can last 5+ innings and not give up many runs, another night will see him barely last 4 innings and give up more than 4 runs. The one scary statistic in Butler’s last 10 games is that he has only lasted more than 5 innings on one occasion, almost 2 months ago. Butler’s inability to make it deep into games has not done the Cubs many favors. If he cannot get off to a fiery start in this, the first of a 3 game series, then I do not think the Cubs stand much of a fighting chance to take game 1. This will be Butler’s 3rd career start vs. the Pirates, and he has thus far not had the best of luck against them.
As far as the Pirates’ and Cubs’ last few games have gone, the Pirates have won 3 straight while the Cubs have traded wins and losses for a few consecutive games. Despite their recent form, we know all too well that these teams can score runs on the right night. Both offenses are competent, and with less than stellar pitchers on the mound there is a good chance we might see some runs.
Betting Prediction
As far as your best wager in this game is concerned, I think you have to bring your attention to the 9 run over/under (EVEN/-120) as listed by MyBookie. With the way these pitchers have been giving up runs, combined with the fact that both these offenses are more than capable of hitting the ball around, I think the over (EVEN) is the logical bet in this one. With even odds you are also getting some good value. Though the Pirates’ series with the Phillies was relatively low-scoring, the Cubs’ last 3 games have all gone over the 9 run tally.
A moneyline bet that I think is the most logical in this one is the Pirates (+120). I am basing this opinion solely off of the recent performances of both teams. The Cubs are struggling to gain a foothold and consistency, while the Pirates are snowballing and gaining a lot of momentum in a hurry. The +120 odds will give you a potentially very valuable bet, and I truly think that, at this time of year, team form means everything.
If I think the Pirates’ moneyline is a safe bet, then the Pirates’ spread (+1.5 -170) is another safe bet. I cannot talk enough about how the Pirates have been coming on in recent weeks. While only a few weeks ago they were talked about as no longer being a contender, they are looking to head into the All-Star break within striking distance of division leaders Milwaukee.