Underdog Red Sox Look to Open Final Series with Yankees with a Win
Who: Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees
When: Thursday August 31st, 2017 7:05PM EST
Where: Yankee Stadium—New York, New York
If the Yankees are going to have any hope of winning the AL East crown, these next 4 days will be pivotal. Sitting 5.5 games back of the Red Sox as it stands, the Yankees can close that gap by outputting positive performances in their last series with Boston this year. Once Sunday comes and this series has been done and dusted, it will be in the hands of Boston’s opponents to help the Yankees close the gap.
If you are wondering whether the Yankees are up to this challenge or not, early indications are pointing towards no. New York will be entering this series on the back of 3 consecutive losses at the hands of the AL Central-leading Cleveland Indians. It wasn’t just the fact that they lost which is telling, but rather how they lost. Over the course of those three games, the Yankees were outscored by 18-7; an unusually poor performance for an offense that was, at one point in the season, one of MLB’s best.
As for the Red Sox, they have been playing solid ball for the better part of the last 2 months. While the Yankees will be entering this series on the back of being swept, the Red Sox will venture to New York having won 3 of 3 in Toronto. The Red Sox offense has been clicking as of late, and that is thanks, in large part, to some younger guys who are really starting to make a name for themselves.
Though the Yankees definitely need to perform well in this series, the Red Sox are definitely playing better baseball at the present moment. New York will have the boost of their own fans to rely on, but at this point in the season that may not be near enough.
Game Overview and Analysis
Starting for the visiting Red Sox (+115) will be the left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez (4-4 4.19 ERA). While Rodriguez’s stats may not be that impressive in this season alone, he has done particularly well against the Yankees in 8 career starts. During those outings, Rodriguez has accrued a 4-1 record with an ERA that is just over 2. What’s more, in 7 of those 8 outings, Rodriguez has given up 2 or fewer earned runs. To make a long story short, the onus of responsibility in this game really falls on the Boston offense more than anything else.
Seeing as the Red Sox just swept division rivals Toronto, I do not think the Red Sox will be worried heading into their series opener on Thursday evening. Of course, the Red Sox will be facing one of the Yankees’ best pitchers, so their performances against the Jays may not be so applicable in predicting the outcome of this game and series. Still, Red Sox fans will be confident in their team’s ability.
As for the Yankees (-135), they will be sending CC sabathia (10-5 3.82 ERA) to the mound. Despite some early season struggles, CC has really come on in the second half of the season and has asserted himself, yet again, as one of the Yankees best starting pitchers. He will be entering this outing on the back of 2 starts that saw him give up 2 runs or less, and a total of 3 overall. It will be a challenge to shutdown the Red Sox bats, but the fact of the matter is that if there is anyone who is up to the challenge, it is CC Sabathia.
For me, the real test will be how the Yankees offense performs. Seeing as they could not get much of anything going against Cleveland, there isn’t much reason to believe that they are going to fare any better against the Red Sox. Then again, this is one of the fiercest rivalries in all of baseball, so anything can happen.
Betting Prediction
As for who to bet on, I am going to be bold and say that you should take the moneyline as offered by Bovada, which lists the Red Sox as +115 underdogs. Between Rodriguez’s success against the Yankees and the Red Sox recent performances, I think there is a good chance they win. What’s more, there is some decent value to be had with the +115 odds.
As far as the over/under is concerned, it is currently listed at an even 9 runs (-125/-105). Being that both starting pitchers are forces to be reckoned with, I think the logical option is to take the under (-105). In addition, the Yankees bats have been struggling, so the under looks that much more appealing.
Finally, the Red Sox are listed on the point spread as +1.5 underdogs (-170). If you, like me, think the Sox are going to win the game, the point spread wager is also a smart one. The odds are not the greatest, but I do like Boston’s odds.