Underdog Red Sox Look to Steal Game 1 in Cleveland
Who: Boston Red Sox v. Cleveland Indians
When: Monday August 21st, 2017 7:10PM EST
Where: Progressive Field—Cleveland, Ohio
If you are looking to find a matchup of hot teams, look no further than this week’s Indians/Red Sox series. These teams account for two of the hottest in the AL, but also two of the hottest teams in all of baseball over recent weeks. The Red Sox have surged over the past 3 weeks and have now opened up a dominant 5-game lead atop the AL East. Similarly, the Indians have also had an upbeat month of August to this point and have also acquired a 5-game lead atop the AL Central. While neither of these teams are guaranteed a spot in the post-season, both look to be playoff contenders as we approach September.
As far as which of these two teams has been the superior squad, that much is really tough to say. The Red Sox have now won 12 of their last 15 games and are dominating in every aspect of the game. In their most recent series, one where they hosted the Yankees, the Red Sox not only won 2 of 3, they generally kept the Yankees off the scoreboard. Apart from the one loss to the Yankees, the Red Sox last lost against the Indians when they played a solitary game to make up for one that was canceled earlier in the season.
As for the Indians, they have won 9 of their last 15 games. Though this is not as impressive as the run the Sox have been on, the Indians have done enough to secure a somewhat comfortable lead atop their division. Unfortunately for them, the Twins are also playing good baseball of late, so the fact of the matter is that the Indians cannot, by any means, rest on their laurels. Thankfully the Indians will be playing at home, but the early conversation is saying that the Red Sox are favored to win this game and series, even as the visitors.
Game Overview and Analysis
For the Red Sox (+106), it will be Eduardo Rodriguez (4-3 3.97 ERA) who will be taking the mound in the top of the 1st. Rodriguez will be making just his second ever start against the Indians, and will be entering this game on the back of a few somewhat lacking performances. In his last outing against the Cardinals, Rodriguez earned a no-decision while pitching just shy of 6 innings, and giving up 4 earned runs. While this might not be the worst stat line you have ever heard, it is going to take a better effort than that against this Indians team.
Luckily, Rodriguez is likely to receive some help from his offense, of which has been performing well these last few weeks. While the Red Sox struggled from the plate through much of the first half of this year, they have really picked things up in recent weeks. So long as the bats can get runs on the board, even an average Eduardo Rodriguez performance will be enough to earn the win. If, however, the bats are quiet, the Sox may have a tougher time than originally believed in this first game.
For the Indians (-126), we will see Mike Clevinger (6-5 3.75 ERA) take the mound. Clevinger usually finds himself coming in for relief performances, but thanks to a hamstring injury suffered by Josh Tomlin on the last day of July, Clevinger finds himself taking the role of emergency starter. Clevinger has earned a 6-4 record in his 15 starts for the Indians this year, and seems to be getting better with each outing.
Clevinger has already faced the Red Sox once this year, and things went poorly for the 26 year old. Now, merely 21 days after that outing, Clevinger will hope to bounce back. Having given up 5 earned runs in only 3 innings pitched, it goes without saying that there is a lot of room for improvement as far as Clevinger is concerned.
Betting Prediction
Though they are the away team and, technically, slight underdogs, I really like the Red Sox (+106) in this matchup. As we just said, Clevinger had a rough outing against them less than a month ago, and I see no reason as to why this time around might be different. The Red Sox are in even better form now than they were on July 31st, and I think they will take this game.
The over/under listed by Bovada for this one is at 9.5 runs (EVEN/-120). This is more of a toss-up, but I like the over (EVEN) in this one. Not only do the 1:1 odds attract me, but the way these pitchers are prone to giving up runs makes me think that this will be a somewhat high-scoring affair.
Finally, if you want to play things safe you can take the point spread that sees the Red Sox listed as +1.5 underdogs (-180). Unfortunately, however, the odds are poor for this one.