Video Game Betting–Top Selling Video Game for Christmas 2016
–Video games are a huge industry in the US and internationally.
– Many manufacturers hold their most highly anticipated games for release at Christmas.
– If a video game can dominate the Christmas season chances are it’ll be a long term hit.
The Christmas season is a ‘make or break’ time for many types of retail sales. For many stores a bad Christmas can doom them to a money losing year. In some cases, a strong Christmas can cover a retailer’s costs for the year ahead making everything else they make pure profit. The stakes are higher in some industries than in others. For toy retailers, it’s the ‘Super Bowl’ while for a manufacturer of factory safety equipment it can be the slowest time of the year. At one point, video games would have been included in the ‘toy’ segment but it’s now outgrown that and is one of the biggest entertainment industries in the world.
VIDEO GAMES ARE A SERIOUS PLAYER FOR THE ENTERTAINMENT DOLLAR
Most Americans realize that video games are a big industry but few realize just how big. 2015 revenue for the computer and video game industry was $16.5 billion and the expectation is that 2016 will be even higher. Worldwide revenue in this segment is over $90 billion and growing. By way of comparison, the US music and film industries do approximately $10 to $12 billion a year. DVD sales continue to decline and are now around $6 billion per year. The Adult Video business ($12 billion) That makes the video game industry the second biggest player among all entertainment segments trailing only book sales ($28 billion).
In the early days of the home video game industry the demographics of players was extremely narrow–caucasian, affluent male teens and young adults. As the industry has exploded the demographic has broadened to a point that will surprise most people. There’s a nearly 50%/50% split between men and women (52% male, 48% female) and the average age of the player has also increased. 77% of men between the age of 18-29 play video games. 57% of all women between the age of 18-29 also play video games. This is the ‘sweet spot’ for the industry but no matter which demographic breakdown you consider the number of video game players is on the upswing. The revenue from online video game platforms like Steam and Origin are exploding but so far it’s been difficult to get accurate revenue numbers on this segment of the business.
THE BIG PLAYERS DOMINATE VIDEO GAME SALES RANKINGS
The video game industry is very similar to the movie industry in one aspect–the financials of the segment are driven by blockbusters. In fact, it may have more in common with the 1980’s movie industry before the Internet and technological advances in digital cameras ‘leveled the playing field’ between the major studios and independent film producers. There are ‘independent’ video game producers but the overwhelming majority of industry sales are from the top 50 producers including Nintendo, EA and Valve.
The sales numbers of the big players in the video game industry are mind boggling. Activision’s ‘Call of Duty’ series has been the top selling video game every year since 2009 with the exception of 2013. As of a year ago, this war simulation series has sold over 250 million games. With another installment in the ‘Call of Duty’ series ready for release there’s a good chance they can do it again this year.
The video game industry is expecting a banner year. Sales have been up across the board all year and early Christmas retail numbers have looked good. If the industry is going to turn in a record year they’ll be led by one of the highly anticipated blockbusters from a major studio. Here’s our odds on which game will sell the most during the 2016 Christmas season.
TOP SELLING CHRISTMAS SEASON VIDEO GAME
Which of these games will be the highest ranked on Amazon.com’s video game sales chart at 12:01 AM Pacific Time on 12/26/16?
Call of Duty–Infinite Warfare: -125
FIFA 17: +120
Final Fantasy 15: +750
South Park: +750
Battlefield One: +1000
F1 2016 +2350
Forza Horizon: +2500
Watchdogs 2: +3000
Mafia III: +3000
RULES: Highest ranked game on Amazon.com’s video game sales chart at 12:01 AM Pacific on 12/26/16 will be the winner.
It’s somewhat surprising given the economic impact of the video game industry but there’s not really a good comprehensive source for sales data. The next problem is the definition of what exactly constitutes the ‘Christmas Season’. In the interest of ‘keeping it simple’ I decided to use the video game sales ranking at Amazon.com at 12:01 AM Pacific on 12/26/16.