Weather Betting–Odds for a White Christmas 2016
–Popular culture has made a ‘White Christmas’ with snow cover the ideal.
– Some areas of the United States seldom get snow at all, let alone on Christmas.
– A huge storm throughout the Western US has increased their chances for a ‘White Christmas’.
Mark Twain famously quipped “Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” The joke is obvious and hasn’t changed since Twain’s ‘mic drop’ in 1897. There is an entire segment of media that does nothing but monitor, forecast and report the weather with varying degrees of accuracy. The prevailing wisdom that ‘weathermen are always wrong’ has been around for ever a century. In the 21st Century weather forecasting has become simultaneously ubiquitous (on phones and other devices), hysterical (the Weather Channel’s hype filled storm coverage) and hyper detailed with dedicated weather information available for every type of industry and recreational activity.
The reporting of the weather has changed but neither has the core concept of Twain’s classic quote–not only does ‘nobody’ do anything about the weather they *can’t* do anything about it. That’s likely why the weather remains so fascinating for many people. It’s one of the few components of life that can’t be controlled. Nature’s ability to bring death and destruction through tornados and hurricanes, massive amounts of snow, insanely high and low temperatures and unsurpassed beauty is how it reminds humans of our ultimate role on this planet. We’re not ‘calling the shots’ when it comes to weather, we’re just along for the ride.
BETTING ON A WHITE CHRISTMAS
Even if you can’t change the weather, you can bet on it. More specifically, you can do Bing Crosby one better and instead of ‘Dreaming of a White Christmas’ you can *bet* on a White Christmas. I’ve come up with odds for a ‘White Christmas’ in major US cities along with a general prop on December 25 national snow cover. This type of bet is nothing new–in fact, it’s been a staple of UK bookmakers for years. European bettors love novelty wagers and this is a natural. For 2016, London has a +450 chance of a White Christmas and a -700 or higher chance of no White Christmas.
First of all, a definition of terms: ‘White Christmas’ for our purposes means 1″ of snow on the ground and/or 1″ of new snowfall. The readings at the major airport for each city listed will be used to grade these wagers. The data from the National Snow Analyses website of the National Weather Service will be used for snowcover measures. New snow data will be obtained from the National Weather Service main website.
HOW TO SET ODDS ON SNOWFALL
Since I’m not a meteorologist, I decided that the best way to set odds on the ‘White Christmas’ prop was to analyze the data *provided* by actual weather professionals. I took historical data on December 25 snowfall, recent snowfall trends and the extended weather forecast for late December and January and mixed well to come up with probability percentages. At that point, it’s a simple process to change them into betting odds. Cities below are listed in descending order of metro area population as indicated in the United States Metropolitan Statistical Area Population Index.
‘WHITE CHRISTMAS’ PROPOSITION BET ODDS
National snow cover percentage on 12/25/16 will be:
Over 52.5%: -300
Under 52.5%: +175
Will New York, New York (JFK) have a White Christmas?
Yes: +900
No: -1250
Will Los Angeles, California (LAX) have a White Christmas?
Yes: +9000
No: -12500
Will Chicago, Illinois (ORD) have a White Christmas?
Yes: +175
No: -225
Will Dallas, Texas have a White Christmas?
Yes: +9000
No: -12500
Will Philadelphia, Pennsylvania have a White Christmas?
Yes: +900
No: -1250
Will Houston, Texas have a White Christmas?
Yes: +9000
No: -12500
Will Miami, Florida have a White Christmas?
Yes: +9000
No: -12500
Will Atlanta, Georgia have a White Christmas?
Yes: +9000
No: -12500
Will Washington, DC have a White Christmas?
Yes: +350
No: -525
Will Boston, Massachusetts have a White Christmas?
Yes: +190
No: -250
Will Detroit, Michigan have a White Christmas?
Yes: -110
No: -110
Will Phoenix, Arizona have a White Christmas?
Yes: +9000
No: -12500
Will San Francisco, California have a White Christmas?
Yes: +9000
No: -12500
Will Seattle, Washington have a White Christmas?
Yes: +900
No: -1250
Will Minneapolis, Minnesota have a White Christmas?
Yes: -450
No: +325
Will San Diego, California have a White Christmas?
Yes: +9000
No: -12500
Will St. Louis, Missouri have a White Christmas?
Yes: +225
No: -350
Will Baltimore, Maryland have a White Christmas?
Yes: +350
No: -525
Will Denver, Colorado have a White Christmas?
Yes: -110
No: -110
Will Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania have a White Christmas?
Yes: +175
No: -250
Will Portland, Oregon have a White Christmas?
Yes: +900
No: -1250
Will Cincinnati, Ohio have a White Christmas?
Yes: +900
No: -1250
Will Sacramento, California have a White Christmas?
Yes: +9000
No: -12500
Will Las Vegas, Nevada have a White Christmas?
Yes: +9000
No: -12500
Will Salt Lake City, Utah have a White Christmas?
Yes: -225
No: +150