‘White Christmas’ 2017 Proposition Betting Odds
–Popular culture has made a ‘White Christmas’ with snow cover the ideal.
– Some areas of the United States seldom get snow at all, let alone on Christmas.
– The best odds of a ‘White Christmas’ are typically in upper New England or the Rocky Mountains.
So when did the notion of a ‘White Christmas’ become a cultural archetype? To some degree, it’s just always been that way. Christmas traditions were handed down from generation to generation and since the US grew from it’s original population center in the Northeast snow was obviously common in late December. Paintings from Currier & Ives and Norman Rockwell always included snow on Christmas. The concept wasn’t slam-dunked into the national consciousness until the first performance of Bing Crosby’s iconic song ‘White Christmas’ in 1941.
It’s doubtful Bing had a ‘White Christmas’ that year–he lived in Los Angeles and spent most of his time on the golf course and at the Del Mar horse track (Bing and several other big Hollywood stars were in the original ownership group). The first recording of ‘White Christmas’ would be released the following year but it began life in January 1940 when it was composed by songwriting legend Irving Berlin. Berlin wasn’t given to modesty and legend has it that when he arrived at his Manhattan office he asked his secretary to transcribe ‘the best song I ever wrote…the best song anybody ever wrote.’ That fact is debatable but it’s definitely one of the best *selling* songs anybody ever wrote, moving over 100 million units since it was released.
Over the years, the success of ‘White Christmas’ has been conflated into a typical American ‘war is good’ narrative. According to this storyline, everyone ignored the song until it started to be played on Armed Forces Radio it ‘heavy rotation’. How it came to the attention of Armed Forces Radio despite everyone ignoring it is lost to history but it was a perfect piece of propaganda, evoking imagery of bucolic scenes on the ‘home front’. Ironically, the original version of Berlin’s song had a different first line in which he smugly gloats about it being another sunny day in Los Angeles before he starts with the melodrama.
WILL YOU HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR?
Statistically speaking, it’s doubtful. In most years, only 25% or so of the United States has 1″ or more of snow on the ground on December 25. That, by the way, is the official meteorological definition of a ‘White Christmas’–the snow doesn’t need to be falling on December 25 but there has to be at least a 1″ accumulation. In terms of major US cities, the best bet for a ‘White Christmas’ is Minneapolis which has a 77% chance of having at least 1″ of snow accumulation on 12/25/18. Also high on the list–Denver, Salt Lake City, Boise, Milwaukee, Detroit, etc. Even with this list of cities we’re typically looking at no better than a coin flip chance of a ‘White Christmas’.
Even if you can’t change the weather, you can bet on it. More specifically, you can do Bing Crosby one better and instead of ‘Dreaming of a White Christmas’ you can *bet* on a White Christmas. I’ve come up with odds for a ‘White Christmas’ in major US cities along with a general prop on December 25 national snow cover. This type of bet is nothing new–in fact, it’s been a staple of UK bookmakers for years. European bettors love novelty wagers and this is a natural. For 2017, London is +600 to have a White Christmas with Manchester at +400 and Glasgow, Scotland at +225.
HOW TO SET ODDS ON SNOWFALL
First of all, a definition of terms: ‘White Christmas’ for our purposes means 1″ of snow on the ground. That is the definition meteorologists use and so we’ll use it as well. The readings at the major airport for each city listed will be used to grade these wagers. The data from the National Snow Analyses website of the National Weather Service will be used for snowcover measures.
Since I’m not a meteorologist, I decided that the best way to set odds on the ‘White Christmas’ prop was to analyze the data *provided* by actual weather professionals. I took historical data on December 25 snowfall, recent snowfall trends and the extended weather forecast for late December and January and mixed them together well to come up with probability percentages. At that point, it’s a simple process to change them into betting odds. Cities below are listed in descending order of metro area population as indicated in the United States Metropolitan Statistical Area Population Index. I’ve added a few few Canadian cities after that just for fun.
‘WHITE CHRISTMAS’ 2017 PROPOSITION BETTING ODDS
NATIONAL SNOW COVER PERCENTAGE ON 12/25/17 WILL BE?
Over 27.5%: -210
Under 27.5%: +180
ODDS OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN THE TOP 25 US CITIES
WILL NEW YORK, NEW YORK (JFK) HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +750
No: -1500
WILL LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA (LAX) HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +12500
No: -25000
WILL CHICAGO, ILLINOIS (ORD) HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +175
No: -225
WILL DALLAS, TEXAS HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +9000
No: -12500
WILL PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +900
No: -1250
WILL HOUSTON, TEXAS HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +9000
No: -12500
WILL MIAMI, FLORIDA HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +12500
No: -25000
WILL ATLANTA, GEORGIA HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +12500
No: -25000
WILL WASHINGTON, DC HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +750
No: -1500
WILL BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +225
No: -275
WILL DETROIT, MICHIGAN HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +120
No: -140
WILL PHOENIX, ARIZONA HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +12500
No: -25000
WILL SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +10000
No: -15000
WILL SEATTLE, WASHINGTON HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +1750
No: -3500
WILL MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: -350
No: +300
WILL SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +12500
No: -25000
WILL ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +300
No: -350
WILL BALTIMORE, MARYLAND HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +750
No: -1500
WILL DENVER, COLORADO HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +125
No: -145
WILL PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +180
No: -210
WILL PORTLAND, OREGON HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +1750
No: -3500
WILL CINCINNATI, OHIO HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +900
No: -1250
WILL SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +12500
No: -25000
WILL LAS VEGAS, NEVADA HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +12500
No: -25000
WILL SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: -130
No: +110
ODDS OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN MAJOR CANADIAN CITIES
WILL TORONTO, ONTARIO HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: -350
No: +300
WILL MONTREAL, QUEBEC HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: -750
No: +600
WILL QUEBEC CITY, QUEBEC HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: -750
No: +600
WILL WINNIPEG, MANITOBA HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: -1750
No: +1250
WILL VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +110
No: -130
WILL EDMONTON, ALBERTA HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: -750
No: +600
WILL CALGARY, ALBERTA HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: -150
No: +130
WILL REGINA, SASKATCHEWAN HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: -450
No: +300
WILL HALIFAX, NOVA SCOTIA HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: +130
No: -150
WILL SAINT JOHN, NEW BRUNSWICK HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Yes: -130
No: +110